Philippine Energy Policy Wiki

Topic: Planning, Outlooks and Indicators

Status
operative
Confidence
high

Map of Content for the planning layer: the framework that structures the national energy plan, the measured baseline it departs from, the scenarios it projects forward, and the indicators by which performance is judged. This page links out to existing concepts/, entities/, and programs/ pages — it moves nothing and duplicates nothing.

Belongs here: a page about a projection, a scenario, a plan-level framework, or a measured indicator. The mechanisms that deliver these targets belong in Topic: Renewable Energy Policy and Support and Topic: Energy Efficiency and Clean Transport ; emissions commitments and the finance to meet them are cross-listed with Topic: Climate, Transition and Finance ; transmission planning documents belong in Topic: Grid and Transmission .

Pages

  • ARC Framework — the three-pillar structure organizing the Philippine Energy Plan around Access to Affordable Energy, Reliability and Resiliency, and Clean and Sustainable Energy, aligned with AmBisyon Natin 2040, the Philippine Development Plan, and SDG 7; the page to read first for how the plan’s objectives are grouped and where any given target sits.
  • Energy Situationer 2022 — the baseline assessment of the energy system as of 2022, with demand growing well below GDP, self-sufficiency declining a second year, coal still supplying most generation, and Malampaya output falling; the page to read for the starting conditions every scenario is measured against.
  • Power Generation Mix (2022 Baseline) — the installed-capacity and generation shares by technology in the base year, with storage tracked separately for the first time and awarded RE potential vastly exceeding installed capacity, showing grid and financing rather than resource as the binding constraint; the page to read for where the generation mix actually stood.
  • Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) — end-use consumption across households, industry, transport, services, and agriculture, excluding conversion losses, with transport the largest and fastest-growing sector and petroleum products still over half of the fuel mix; the page to read for the demand-side composition the projections extend.
  • Reference Scenario (REF) — the business-as-usual pathway assuming current policy continues, in which consumption and primary supply roughly quadruple, self-sufficiency worsens as LNG fills the Malampaya gap, gas becomes the largest generation source, and emissions double by 2050; the page to read for the counterfactual the clean pathways are compared against.
  • Clean Energy Scenarios (CES-1 and CES-2) — the two aggressive pathways layering offshore wind, nuclear, higher EV penetration, and stricter efficiency onto the baseline and differing only in offshore wind capacity, with the resulting shifts in self-sufficiency, consumption, and cumulative avoidance. Cross-listed on Topic: Climate, Transition and Finance as the mitigation pathway; here it is the plan’s central projection, and the page to read for what separates the two scenarios.
  • Renewable Energy Targets 2023-2050 — the generation-mix targets of at least 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040, the capacity tripling needed to reach the first, and the storage growth that accompanies it. Cross-listed on Topic: Renewable Energy Policy and Support as the obligation driving the support mechanisms; here it is a planning target, and the page to read for the capacity trajectory by scenario.
  • Offshore Wind (OSW) — the single largest lever in the Clean Energy Scenarios and the only variable distinguishing them, with the highest capacity factor of any variable technology and awarded service-contract capacity far exceeding what is built. Cross-listed on Topic: Project Development and Permitting for its contracting regime; here it is the scenario driver, and the page to read for why the plan’s two clean pathways diverge.
  • Energy Intensity and Efficiency Indicators — energy per unit of GDP, the primary metric for the efficiency statute and an SDG 7.3 indicator, with sectoral elasticities, the ASEAN and APEC benchmarks already met or projected, and the annual reduction the clean pathway requires. Cross-listed on Topic: Energy Efficiency and Clean Transport as the efficiency yardstick; here it is a headline planning indicator, and the page to read for measured versus targeted intensity.
  • Energy Import Dependency — the share of primary supply sourced abroad, worsening two years running, dominated by oil and by coal drawn almost entirely from a single country, with declining domestic output across oil, gas, and coal; the page to read for the security exposure that motivates the affordability pillar and the renewables build-out.
  • GHG Emissions — Energy Sector (2022 Baseline) — the emissions baseline anchoring both the climate commitment and the scenario trajectories, with power generation the dominant emitter and transport the fastest-growing, and the year each clean pathway reaches net offset. Cross-listed on Topic: Climate, Transition and Finance as the commitment baseline; here it is the plan’s emissions indicator, and the page to read for measured emissions and avoidance.
  • Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) — Philippines — the Paris Agreement commitment to a 75% reduction against a business-as-usual baseline, overwhelmingly conditional on external finance, with no net-zero target and a bar on passing compliance cost to consumers, and early performance already ahead of the energy-sector target. Cross-listed on Topic: Climate, Transition and Finance as the international obligation; here it is the target the projections are checked against, and the page to read for the conditional-versus-unconditional split.
  • PEP 2023-2050 Investment Requirements — the capital each pathway demands in constant pesos, where offshore wind and storage drive the divergence, alongside projected employment, with transmission excluded and government framing its role as mobilizing private finance. Cross-listed on Topic: Climate, Transition and Finance for the financing question; here it is the cost of each scenario, and the page to read for what the plan’s ambition is priced at.
  • Philippine Energy Transition Program (PETP) — the department’s transition blueprint organizing decarbonization through 2050 across renewables, efficiency, grid modernization, voluntary coal retirement, and electric vehicles, without committing to net zero within the horizon. Cross-listed on Topic: Climate, Transition and Finance as transition policy; here it is the programme that carries the plan’s clean-energy pillar, and the page to read for how the pillars fit together.
  • National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) 2020-2040 — the umbrella RE framework whose modeled outlook deliberately excluded storage, nuclear, and offshore wind, making it a floor rather than a ceiling for the later plan scenarios, with an update committed. Cross-listed on Topic: Renewable Energy Policy and Support as the coordinating programme; here it is a long-range plan document, and the page to read for how its outlook relates to the plan’s.

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