=== pep-2023-2050-vol3-section-b1-page-014.pdf === Figure 3. NEP Roadmap 2023-2032 Infrastructure Issue 2023 - 2024 2024 - 2028 2028 - 2032 2032 Domestic Workforce Survey Collaboration with Education Institutiors Human Resource Development HR Needs Assessment Capacity Building on Human Resource Development National and Organizational Human Resource Plan Communication Plan on Nuclear Energy National and Site Specific Communication Plan Stakeholders' Involvement Capacity Building on Stakeholder's Involvement Stakeholders' Enhancement Program Self-Evaluation Report on Nuclear Intra Dev't Expanded Public Perception Survey Management Information System National Policy for the Promotion of Nuclear Energy Investment Incentives Review Capacity Building Industrial Involvement National Policy on Industrial Involvement Industrial Involvement Localization Plan for Nuclear Energy Program Supply Chain Mapping Guidelines and Legal Framework on Codes & Std's Quality Assurance, Safety and Performance Sub - Committee 6 Sub - Committee 5 Identification and assessment of potential nuclear power plant sites Site and Supporting Facilities Candidate Site Assessment and Ranking National and Site Specific Communication Plan Site Characterization Capacity Building on Site and Supporting Facilities Environmental Impact Assessment for NPP Environmental Protection Legal & Regulatory Framework on Environment Protection National and Site Specific Communication Plan Environmental Impact Statement Scoping and Screening Capacity Building on Site and Supporting Facilities Emergency Planning National Nuclear or Radiological Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan (RADPLAN) Testing and Evaluation of RADPLAN Capacityand Building on Emergency Planning Plan National Site Specific Communication Stable Nuclear Materials Supply Nuclear Fuel Cycle Ratification of Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management National and Site Specific Communication Plan National Policy and Strategy of Waste Management Capacity Building on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Radioactive Waste Assessment Radioactive Waste Management Radioactive Waste Management Act National and Site Specific Communication Plan Radioactive Waste Management Organization Reactor Technolofy Assessment First MWh of Nuclear Power Out Sub - Committee 4 Development of Nuclear Energy Training Module Core Communications Team Start of Construction of 1st Nuclear Power Plant Philippine Nuclear Energy Education Program Capacity Building on Radioactive Waste Management Considered as “big ticket project”, the implementation of the NEP in the medium-term requires collaboration with the independent regulatory body that will ensure the adherence to nuclear safety, security, and safeguards culture. The NEP-IAC will continue with its various international technical cooperation programs for sustained development of the NEP. These would include engagements with the IAEA, and Japan for trainings, showcasing the best regional practices on the development of nuclear energy. The implementation of the 123 Agreement with the U.S. under the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Strategic Civilian Nuclear Cooperation with the U.S. will be also undertaken. B. FOSTERING ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Energy serves as the backbone of the economy as it drives growth and improves social equity. The government recognizes the significant strides that must be taken to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with SDG 7 – Clean and Affordable 7 Philippine Energy Plan === pep-2023-2050-vol3-section-b1-page-015.pdf === Energy, being one of the core objectives. It is deemed as the “Golden Thread” that supports the realization of the other global goals. Thus, energy production and consumption must be more efficient and judicious that advances accessibility, availability, and affordability, while reducing its environmental consequences. Energy policies and programs have been crafted to expand access to sustainable and clean energy for the country through a strong collaboration with all stakeholders. The DOE is aggressively pursuing the energy sector’s agenda to implement energy efficiency and conservation (EEC) practices, accelerate the deployment of renewable energy (RE), and adopt and develop new and emerging energy technologies together with sound environmental management to achieve a just energy transition. The implementation of energy programs and projects must be coupled with efforts to improve the environmental management, monitoring and evaluation of the mitigation and adaptation measures to reduce the impacts to environment and address climate change. Various tools and methodologies are being used to measure, assess, and validate these efforts against the targets set in the environmental plans and programs and the country’s NDC including the GHG Inventory, National Grid Emission Factor (NGEF) estimation, and the enhancement of the Philippine Emissions Pathways Calculator (PEPC), among others. Environmental Management Environmental management and protection is based on a set of laws and regulations that govern all energy projects from exploration to development to production and utilization. Energy projects can be categorized into four (4) types: A. B. C. D. Environmentally Critical Projects (ECPs), which pose high risks or negative environmental impacts; Projects in Environmentally Critical Areas (ECAs) located in ecologically, socially or geologically sensitive areas that significantly affect the quality of environment; Projects that are not classified as Category (A) or Category (B) that directly enhance the quality of environment or directly address existing environmental problems; and, Projects that are deemed unlikely to cause significant adverse impacts on the quality of environment. Following the guidelines of the Philippines Environmental Impact Statement System (PEISS), a project proponent is required to undertake an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and submit Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) or EIA Report, or Environmental Performance Report and Management Plan (EPRMP) to secure Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC) for energy projects categorized as (A) and (B). The projects include power plants, refineries, transmission lines, oil production fields, and coal mines whose ECC conditions include the formation of a Multipartite Monitoring Team (MMT)1. On the other hand, the project proponent is required to prepare and submit project description to secure Certificate of Non-Coverage (CNC) for energy projects categorized as (C) and (D). The ECC and CNC are issued by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), the country’s environmental protection regulatory body. The EIA process2 assesses the potential environmental effects of a project or development while considering related socio-economic, cultural, and human health effects, both positive and negative. The EIA process in Figure 4, involves: • • • • • Screening determines if a project is covered or not covered by the PEISS, while Scoping identifies the most significant issues/impacts of a proposed project, and then, delimits the extent of baseline information to those necessary to evaluate and mitigate the impacts; EIA Study involves a description of a proposed project and its alternatives, characterization of the project environment, impact identification and prediction, evaluation of impact significance, impact mitigation, and formulation of Environmental Management and Monitoring Plan to come up with an EIA Report; Review of EIA Report normally entails a procedural screening for compliance to minimum requirements specified during Scoping, followed by a substantive review composed of third party experts; Decision Making covers evaluation of EIA recommendations and the draft decision document; and, Monitoring, Validation and Evaluation/Audit stage assesses performance of the proponent against the ECC and its commitments in the Environmental Management and Monitoring Plan to ensure actual impacts of the project are adequately prevented or mitigated. MMT is composed of representatives from relevant government agencies, local government units (LGUs), non-government organizations (NGOs), and peoples’ organizations (POs), the community, the women’s sector, and whenever necessary, from the academe and other sectors. 2 Revised Procedural Manual for DENR Administrative Order 2003, 30 August 2007 1 Vo l u m e 3 8 === pep-2023-2050-vol3-section-b1-page-016.pdf === Figure 4. EIA Process The analyses and conclusions of the process are holistically presented in the EIA report. It outlines the baseline conditions of the environment and the population in the area, specifies the project's consequences at each phase, and evaluates the significance of those impacts. If the consequences are considerable, the EIA report includes mitigation strategies to address them, as well as a monitoring plan to keep track of the impacts as the project is being developed and implemented. Together with other stakeholders, the DOE monitors environmental compliance of energy projects to make sure that social and environmental requirements are met and appropriate mitigation actions to address environmental impacts are in place. As a mechanism for monitoring compliance, the MMT is established as one of the ECC conditions for ECPs and projects located in ECAs. The MMT ensures public participation from project construction to decommissioning. To ascertain whether the project exhibits adverse impact on environment and the host community, a quarterly monitoring of the metrics for various modules outlined in the Environmental Management Plan (EMP), Environmental Monitoring Program (EMoP), and Social Development Plan (SDP) are conducted. Accordingly, this is verified through the preparation of the semestral Compliance Monitoring and Validation Report (CMVR) of the MMT. Members of the MMT certify the CMVR, which also offers suggestions for enhancing the project's environmental performance. Additionally, the MMT shares knowledge and experiences through the regular delivery of Information, Education, and Communication (IEC) activities to all relevant stakeholders. The MMT develops its Annual Work and Financial Plan (AWFP), which covers air and water quality, biophysical, and socioeconomic monitoring. This plan provides the operational framework for its environmental compliance monitoring and verification efforts. Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Climate change directly impacts both the demand- and supply-side aspects of the energy sector. There are many ways to attain a low carbon and climate- and disaster-resilient (LCCDR) energy sector. However, the path that it takes depends on various factors, including the degree of development, aspirational goals, socio-economic context, and political will. Figure 5 shows the relationship between the processes that underlie the adaptation and mitigation measures to achieve the vision of a clean and sustainable energy sector. This framework is intended to identify the policies, regulations, and institutions, which the energy sector should adopt in response to the conditions necessary for transitioning towards LCCDR. Finance, technology, capacity building, laws and policies, and institutions and stakeholder engagement are enabling factors to achieve the goals of GHG emissions reduction and climate and disaster resilience. Figure 5. Low Carbon and Climate-and-Disaster-Resilient (LCCDR) Energy Sector Framework 9 Philippine Energy Plan === pep-2023-2050-vol3-section-b1-page-017.pdf === Energy Sector Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) The Philippines recognizes that climate change mitigation is critical to limit the impacts on human societies and ecosystems. To decrease contribution to climate change in terms of GHG emissions and reduction of other pollutants, which are considered precursor gases, the energy sector has the following climate change mitigation policies and measures (PAMs): • • • • • • • Implementation of EEC measures/initiatives across all sectors; Acceleration of the development, deployment, and use of RE sources and technologies; Utilization of highly efficient and low emission (HELE) coal technologies; Installation of new and emerging technologies; Penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) to reduce petroleum product use in the transport sector; Utilization of natural gas not only in the power sector but also in the industry and commercial sectors; and Grid modernization program/smart grid systems. The NDC is the heart of the Paris Agreement (PA) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is the global climate change regime that was agreed at the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) held on 12 December 2015. The NDC embodies efforts by each Party to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. It guides the long-term development plan towards a climate-resilient and low-carbon future of a country. Through the NDC, each country communicates the actions that it is willing to take to help achieve the PA goal of holding global average temperature increase to well below two (2) degrees Celsius of pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to one point five (1.5) degrees Celsius. Likewise, it should promote the country’s economic development and industrialization goals, while contributing to the global efforts to stabilize the earth’s climate. The Philippines submitted its first NDC3 to the UNFCCC on 15 April 2021 and commits to an economywide aggregate emission reduction of 75.0 percent from the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario for the period 2020 to 2030. The BAU scenario is projected based on the 2010 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The commitment is composed of 2.7 percent unconditional reduction using nationally mobilized resources and 72.3 percent conditional reduction requiring the Means of Implementation (MOI) and support to be provided by developed or Annex II4 Parties. The energy sector's contribution to the country’s NDC is based on the PEP 2018-2040 projections, strategies, and targets. The sector maintains a two-pronged complementary approach of its NDC that highlights adaptation actions with mitigation co-benefits in the transformation (power and energy industry), industry, and other sectors. The GHG emissions of the energy sector, particularly from fuel combustion, remain the major contributor to the country’s emissions. Likewise, various energy facilities and infrastructures are affected by the impacts of climate change. Figure 6 shows the energy sector’s GHG emission from 2010 to 2022, which reflects an increase of 82.8 percent for the period, equivalent to an annual average growth of 6.0 percent, from 50.62 million ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mtco2e) to 100.3 Mtco2e, respectively. The transformation sector (electricity generation) increased its emission by 136.6 percent, followed by the services, household, and industry sectors at 111.2 percent, 39.0 percent, and 9.0 percent, respectively. The agriculture sector exhibited a decrease of 35.7 percent for the same period. Figure 6. Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the Energy Sector, 2010-2022 The DOE also accounts the GHG emissions of the transport sector, but not reflected (in Figure 6) since its emission is treated separately from energy in the country’s NDC. The Department of Transportation (DOTr) is tasked to implement, monitor, and assess the NDC policies and measures of the transport sector. Prior to the PA, the country submitted an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC in October 2015 with an ambitious 70.0 percent emissions reduction by 2030. Annex II Parties include the 24 industrialized countries namely Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, European Economic Community, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and United States of America. 3 4 Vo l u m e 3 10 === pep-2023-2050-vol3-section-b1-page-018.pdf === Figure 7 shows that generally the rate of decrease of the actual emissions have declined from 2018-2022. In addition, the difference of the percentage emission reduction using the actual data versus that of the NDC BAU increased from the same period. Figure 7. Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction, 2018-2022 The reduction is more apparent from 2018-2020 due to increasing share of RE in the power generation mix enabled by effective policy interventions. While from 2020-2022, slow percentage reduction can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic that resulted in economic slowdown, which greatly affected the activities of the other end-use and industry sectors (Table 3). The Energy Supply and Demand Outlook of this Plan is used to assess the NDC based on the additional PAMs of the energy sector excluding those that are associated with the transport sector. The targets and timelines in the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP), National Adaptation Plan (NAP), and the NDC are harmonized with the PEP. It aggressively pursues enhanced initiatives on EEC, RE, and alternative fuels development and utilization, entry of new and emerging clean technologies, implementation of energy resiliency standards, and even the adoption of information and communication (IT) technology from the transformation sector to end users. Table 3. Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction by Sector in Mtcoe Sector 2018-2040 NDC Projections 2020 2021 2022 Actual 2020 2021 Emission Reduction (Mtco2e | %) 2022 2020 2021 2022 Transformation 81.39 86.71 94.10 71.75 74.29 77.44 9.64 11.85% 12.42 14.33% 16.66 17.70% Industry 15.99 16.82 17.69 11.34 12.50 12.94 4.65 29.09% 4.32 25.67% 4.75 26.84% Other Sectors 12.51 13.08 13.69 11.35 12.13 9.88 1.16 9.27% 0.95 7.30% 3.81 27.86% Total Transport Grand Total 109.89 41.25 151.14 116.61 43.37 159.98 125.48 45.60 171.08 94.44 98.92 100.26 28.15 31.53 35.42 122.58 130.45 135.68 15.45 13.10 28.56 14.06% 31.77% 18.89% 17.69 11.84 29.53 15.17% 27.29% 18.46% 25.22 10.18 35.40 20.10% 22.33% 20.69% As shown in Figure 8, the enhanced PAMs of the energy sector alone, as monitored over the last three (3) years, have positively responded to the submitted 2020-2030 NDC commitments to the UNFCCC given its aggregate target of 45.9 Mtco2e, which includes both conditional and unconditional targets. From 2020 to 2022, a total of 52.9 Mtco2e of GHG emissions was reduced by the energy sector, about 15.0 percent higher than the total NDC reduction target. Given the current plans and programs of the energy sector until 2030, it is projected that the level of GHG emission reduces by about 28.3 percent to 35.0 percent from the NDC BAU target depending on the Scenarios of this PEP. This equates to more than a ten-fold increase from the 45.9 Mtco2-e GHG emission reduction target. The energy sector also monitors avoided emissions with the amount of electricity generated by the country’s RE sources. This is computed using the equivalent fuel requirement to generate the same amount of electricity, which is then multiplied with coal emission factors for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The CH4 and N2O emissions are then multiplied with their corresponding global warming potentials to come up with the CO2 equivalent, which is then added to the CO2 emission. Table 4 presents the actual and projected GHG avoidance of the RE generation based on the above computation. 11 Philippine Energy Plan === pep-2023-2050-vol3-section-b1-page-019.pdf === Figure 8. Energy Sector NDC Assessment vs 2023-2050 PEP Projected GHG Emissions Table 4. Energy Sector NDC Assessment of GHG Emissions vis-à-vis’ NDC projected Emissions (Mtco2-e) Actual* 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2020 - 2030 116.60 125.48 134.39 143.41 151.50 159.37 167.36 175.46 183.79 192.26 1,659.52 NDC BAU Projected B. 2023-2050 PEP Scenarios D. E. F. Total 109.89 A. C. Projected REF 99.86 98.97 100.26 99.79 101.51 104.80 108.62 113.61 118.91 121.06 123.26 1,190.66 CES1 99.86 98.97 100.26 99.63 100.12 97.95 96.88 99.16 98.10 106.56 107.77 1,105.26 CES2 99.86 98.97 100.26 99.63 100.12 98.19 94.48 96.84 96.04 99.72 95.27 1,079.41 46.70 50.75 53.75 56.55 62.73 69.00 468.86 NDC Assessment (Reduction from BAU) REF 10.03 17.63 25.22 34.61 41.90 CES1 10.03 17.63 25.22 34.76 43.29 53.55 62.50 68.20 77.36 77.23 84.49 554.26 CES2 10.03 17.63 25.22 34.76 43.29 53.30 64.89 70.52 79.42 84.07 96.98 580.12 RPS Contribution to Unconditional / RE GHG Avoidance REF 47.46 47.30 49.46 56.00 54.98 57.60 58.70 64.15 67.91 70.03 74.31 647.90 CES1 47.46 47.30 49.46 56.06 59.43 62.62 68.64 71.44 77.90 79.08 84.41 703.79 CES2 47.46 47.30 49.46 56.06 59.43 63.17 70.02 72.86 79.23 82.02 89.03 716.05 104.30 109.46 117.90 124.46 132.76 143.31 1,116.76 Total GHG Reduction and Avoidance REF 57.49 64.93 74.68 90.61 96.88 CES1 57.49 64.93 74.68 90.82 102.72 116.17 131.14 139.64 155.25 156.31 168.90 1,258.05 CES2 57.49 64.93 74.68 90.82 102.72 116.48 134.91 143.38 158.65 166.10 186.01 1,296.16 NDC BAU less Total GHG Reduction and Avoidance REF 52.40 51.67 50.80 43.79 46.54 47.20 49.92 49.46 51.00 51.03 48.95 542.76 CES1 52.40 51.67 50.80 43.57 40.69 35.33 28.24 27.72 20.21 27.48 23.36 401.47 CES2 52.40 51.67 50.80 43.57 40.69 35.02 24.46 23.99 16.81 17.69 6.24 363.36 *Actual data except for the NDC BAU projections 2 TFEC is the total energy consumed by the end-users – households, industry, transport, services, and agriculture – such as electricity and petroleum products (i.e. gasoline, diesel, kerosene, etc.). These are energy products and fuels that are converted from the primary energy form, i.e., fuels and energy source (RE) to electricity, crude oil to petroleum products., which incur losses during the conversion process due to their thermal efficiencies. These losses make the difference between TPES and TFEC. For further details, see pp. 23-25 for the process flow of energy forms. Vo l u m e 3 12 === pep-2023-2050-vol3-section-b1-page-020.pdf === If the GHG avoidance is then combined with the GHG reduction, the energy sector’s contribution to achieve the NDC target is amplified by equivalent avoidance from RE generation, which totals 143.3 Mtco2e for the same period. The said figure reaches more than three times or around 312.0 percent of the sector’s NDC target. Combining the GHG emission reduction with that of avoidance, energy has contributed an aggregate of 197.1 Mtco2e in the last 3 years. This is also equivalent to about 65.9 percent of the sector’s GHG emissions. The DOE emphasizes that the energy sector commitment should be based on sound technical assessment or evidence. The energy sector's GHG emission commitment includes both conditional and unconditional targets. The latter equates to the implementation of the government’s energy efficiency measures. Table 5 shows the projected GHG emissions and corresponding reduction in the Clean Energy Scenario 1 (CES 1) and CES 2 from the Reference (REF) Scenario over the planning horizon. In the REF Scenario, the total sectoral GHG emissions from the transformation, industry, transport, and other sectors covering services, household, and agriculture for the period 2023-2050 reaches 5,555.4 Mtco2e, of which energy accounts for 71.8 percent. In the CES 1, the total GHG emission stands at 4,564.4 Mtco2e, a 21.7 percent decrease equivalent to 991.0 Mtco2e reduction from the REF Scenario. An additional reduction of 8.0 percent is achieved by furthering efforts in the CES 2 resulting in a total of 29.7 percent reduction or 1,273.3 Mtco2e decrease from the REF Scenario. On the other hand, the GHG emissions of the energy sector without the transport sector in the CES 1 decreased by 759.1 Mtco2e as compared to the REF. This corresponds to a 19.0 percent decrease, which drops further by 7.1 percent in the CES 2 (from the REF), equivalent to 1,041.1 Mtco2e. The energy sector GHG emissions in the REF, CES 1, and CES 2 are estimated at 3,989.7 Mtco2e, 3,230.6 Mtco2e, and 2,948.5 Mtco2e, respectively. Table 5. Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector in Mtco2e 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 Actual Data 2040 2050 Total 2023 2050 Reference Scenario Transformation 71.75 74.29 77.44 75.71 76.22 78.16 89.90 662.23 96.77 122.16 2,699.18 Industry 11.34 12.50 12.94 12.84 13.66 14.55 18.67 126.31 28.35 38.45 701.80 Other Sectors 11.35 12.13 9.88 11.23 11.64 12.09 14.70 103.05 23.00 36.38 588.68 94.44 98.92 100.26 99.79 101.52 104.80 123.26 891.59 148.12 196.98 3,989.66 28.15 31.53 35.42 36.97 38.16 39.57 47.15 335.73 61.64 73.11 1,565.78 122.58 130.45 135.68 136.76 139.68 144.38 170.41 1,227.32 209.75 270.09 5,555.44 Total Transport Grand Total Actual Data Clean Energy Scenario 1 Transformation 71.75 74.29 77.44 75.71 75.24 72.03 76.32 585.30 73.60 73.55 2,053.61 Industry 11.34 12.50 12.94 12.75 13.42 14.16 17.52 121.36 25.02 34.02 635.10 Other Sectors 11.35 12.13 9.88 11.17 11.46 11.80 13.93 99.57 20.77 32.93 541.88 94.44 98.92 100.26 99.64 100.12 97.99 107.77 806.23 119.38 140.50 3,230.58 Total Transport 28.15 31.53 35.42 36.62 37.20 37.88 41.83 313.16 50.59 59.11 1,333.82 Grand Total 122.58 130.45 135.68 136.26 137.32 135.87 149.60 1,119.40 169.97 199.61 4,564.40 GHG Reduction: REF to CES 1 (excluding Transport) 2.69 3.42 3.39 0.15 1.39 6.81 15.49 85.36 28.73 56.49 759.08 Actual Data Clean Energy Scenario 2 Transformation 71.75 74.29 77.44 75.71 75.24 72.28 63.83 559.44 65.32 59.98 1,771.55 Industry 11.34 12.50 12.94 12.75 13.42 14.16 17.52 121.36 25.02 34.02 635.10 Other Sectors 11.35 12.13 9.88 11.17 11.46 11.80 13.93 99.57 20.77 32.93 541.88 Total 94.44 98.92 100.26 99.64 100.12 98.24 95.28 780.38 111.11 126.94 2,948.53 Transport 13 Total 2023 2030 28.15 31.53 35.42 36.62 37.20 37.63 41.83 312.91 50.59 59.11 1,333.57 Total 122.58 130.45 135.68 136.26 137.32 135.87 137.10 1,093.29 161.69 186.05 4,282.10 GHG Reduction: REF to CES 2 (excluding Transport) 2.69 3.42 3.39 0.15 1.39 6.56 27.99 111.21 37.01 70.05 1,041.13 Philippine Energy Plan === pep-2023-2050-vol3-section-b1-page-021.pdf === Figure 9 reflects the projected emissions of the three scenarios of this Plan against the PEP 2018-2040 NDC BAU, which was extended until 2050 using its average annual growth rate of 6.0 percent, thereby bringing the total emissions to more than 8,700 Mtco2e for the period 2020-2050. The projected GHG emission and the cumulative emission reduction of the energy sector’s initiatives incorporated in the current scenarios are sending the signal that the country is doing its part to mitigate its climate change impacts even without a net-zero commitment. The graph provides an insight that the projected 2050 REF, CES 1, and CES 2 emissions are almost equivalent to the 2030, 2024, and 2022 projected emissions of the NDC BAU, respectively. The energy sector will be reducing its total emissions by 55.0 percent to more than 66.0 percent, equivalent to around 4,800 to 5,800 Mtco2e, over the planning period depending on the scenario as compared to the said BAU. The measures set out in this Plan are discussed in detail in the Energy Supply and Demand Outlook Chapter and sectoral chapters. Accounting for both GHG emission reduction and avoidance enables the energy sector to contribute to both climate change mitigation and adaptation. To expound, GHG reduction is computed based on the reduced fossil fuel utilization or the displacement of a fossil fuel used with another less emitting fossil fuel in the transformation, industry, and other sectors. Figure 9. Projected GHG Emissions and Cumulative GHG Emission Reduction, 2023-2050 On the other hand, GHG avoidance is computed using the equivalent fuel consumption of the RE generation multiplied by the coal emission factors to come up with the amount of avoided emissions. This methodology can still be enhanced by identifying which of the RE generations are for baseload, mid-range, and peaking requirements and applying the most appropriate emission factors, like for natural gas or diesel. For the impact of energy efficiency, the relevant grid emission factor, which is also discussed later in this chapter, can be used. Figure 10 shows the effect to the NDC BAU emissions of the combined GHG emissions reduced and avoided over the planning horizon. The sum when deducted from the NDC figures reflects that the energy sector can offset its own emissions by as early as 2033 and 2037, based on the CES 2 and CES 1, respectively. However, the REF will not be able to achieve the same result but will still cut the energy emissions by more than half. Figure 10. Contribution of GHG Reduction and Avoidance per Scenario to Attain the NDC Targets The submitted NDC of the energy sector, particularly for the conditional target emphasized that it should not result in increased energy costs and prices to be borne by the consumers. To reduce the attendant costs for implementation, it is therefore important that sustainable financing mechanisms are crafted and enabled. Vo l u m e 3 14 === pep-2023-2050-vol3-section-b1-page-022.pdf === It is also imperative that the energy sector stakeholders maximize and capitalize all resources available to attain the NDC targets. The realization of the CES 1 and CES 2 that will support the country’s NDC initiatives, necessitates the infusion of USD238.70 billion investments, which covers the build cost for additional RE capacities, battery energy storage systems, natural gas, and nuclear energy. This amount of investment is necessary to aid the country in transforming and transitioning the energy system into a clean and sustainable one. Accordingly, incremental costs of the required capacity-building and technology applications in relation to the NDC efforts should be provided through capital (new and additional) emanating from developed countries that utilize public and private investments. This is central to the DOE’s call for climate justice as it pertains to the commitments that developed countries must undertake in reference to Article 4 of the PA. For its part, the DOE intends to achieve accessible, affordable, reliable, resilient, clean, and sustainable energy products and services through its NDC. In addition, the policies and programs to be implemented should not result in additional burden to energy consumers. Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Pursuant to the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (NFSCC), climate change adaptation is the anchor strategy, and mitigation will be pursued as a function of adaptation. The Philippines will use the NDC as an expanded platform for enhanced global cooperation and increased access to key resources (i.e., finance and technology transfer), not just for climate change mitigation, but for adaptation and resiliency measures, especially for the most vulnerable sectors. The energy sector recognizes adaptation and disaster risk reduction as key components of the longterm response to climate change and other natural calamities and requires all energy industries to enhance their adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience, and reduce vulnerability. To adapt to the impacts of natural and human-induced disasters, it is necessary to have strategies for climate change adaptation, as well as risk reduction. The involvement of all stakeholders in developing these strategies is critical as climate and natural disasters affect everyone in many aspects, i.e., economic, safety and health, etc. It is important to note that the climate agenda and energy resiliency go together in terms of addressing relevant concerns. The energy sector contributes significantly to GHG emissions, while in times of natural disasters, including the climate change impacts, it is crucial to have an energyresilient system to facilitate quick response, recovery, and rehabilitation from the effects of these disasters. The Energy Resiliency Roadmap, which includes the formulation of Energy Resiliency Standards complements the programs, strategies, and activities on climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. A more comprehensive discussion on the resiliency and security of energy systems is provided in the Resiliency and Security of Energy Infrastructure Chapter of this Plan. This chapter particularly focuses on the measures to help prevent, prepare for, respond to, and recover and rehabilitate from natural disasters, and human-induced events, among others. Emissions Monitoring, Reporting and Verification Development of the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Management and Reporting System. As stipulated under Executive Order (EO) 174,5 the DOE leads the GHG inventory of the energy sector and is tasked to conduct, document, archive, and monitor the GHG emissions inventory from the combustion of fossil fuels in stationary sources, mobile sources, and fugitive emissions. The GHG emissions inventory serves as a tool for the government to determine areas where emissions can be reduced and identify measures to be implemented to reduce such, which also aids in realizing the NDC targets. 5 15 “Institutionalizing the Philippine Greenhouse Gas Inventory Management and Reporting System” issued in November 2014. Philippine Energy Plan