=== pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-049.pdf === CHAPTER 2. POWER DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2023-2050 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 49 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-050.pdf === CHAPTER II Power Demand and Supply Outlook 2023-2050 In this chapter, the DOE will discuss the Power Demand and Supply Outlook, which provides the annual peak demand forecast and the power supply expansion plan of the country on a per-technology basis, resulting in three scenarios for the planning period of 2023 to 2050, namely the Reference Scenario, Clean Energy Scenario 1 (CES 1) and Clean Energy Scenario 2 (CES 2). The 2023-2050 PDP used the PLEXOS® software as the planning and simulation tool to determine the optimal capacity addition and generation expansion for the power supply and demand outlook. PLEXOS®26 is a state-of-the-art simulation software used for power system and market modeling developed by Energy Exemplar. It has cuttingedge mathematical programming and stochastic optimization techniques that can effectively deal with extremely complex problems and uncertainties such as variable RE, batteries, outages, and reserves, among others. PLEXOS® is being utilized with over 350 organizations in approximately 60 countries. The 2023-2050 PDP covers the entire Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao grid with multiple scenarios in one PLEXOS® model. This shows different long-term projections of the power supply and demand outlook of the Philippines towards clean energy transition. 1. Methodology The development of the Philippine Capacity Expansion Model (CEM) involved the utilization of PLEXOS®, following the structural framework outlined in Figures 14 and 15. The modeling activity encompassed four major steps: 1. Data Gathering - The initial step involved the comprehensive identification and collection of all necessary input data, including both historical and forecasted information. 2. Creation of Scenarios and Assumptions - The subsequent stage focused on establishing various scenarios and constraints assumptions that would form the foundation for the modeling process. 3. Generation of Models / Simulation - The core of the modeling activity involved the creation and execution of the CEM using PLEXOS® least-cost optimization. This step also encompassed the analysis of the resulting CEM to glean insights; and, 4. Modification – The final step was an iterative process of refinement, involving the ongoing update of parameters and constraints. This approach aimed to fine-tune the model, leading to the development of the ultimate version of the CEM. 26 PLEXOS® Energy Modeling Software, Retrieved through https://www.energyexemplar.com/plexos POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 50 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-051.pdf === Figure 14. Generation of Models/Simulation Figure 15. Modeling Structure POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 51 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-052.pdf === 2. Data Inputs 2.1 Data and Assumption The power demand and supply outlook up to 2050 were formulated using the following data, assumptions, and limitations: Table 24. Data and Assumptions for the Power Supply Outlook Particulars Electricity Demand Inputs • • • • • Generator Parameters • • • New Build Options • • • Limitations • • 2022 Hourly Demand* 2023 to 2050 Demand Forecast List of Existing Power Plants and Committed Power Projects as of April 2023 WESM Registered Capacities as of May 2023 Operating parameters of existing power plants based on submission of Generation Companies Reserve provision classified as Regulating, Contingency, and Dispatchable Reserves Fuel Costs (Coal, Gas, Oil, and Uranium) Gas, Biomass, WTE, Geothermal, Ground-mounted Solar, Roof mounted Solar, Floating Solar, On and Offshore Wind, ROR, Impounding Hydro, Pumped Hydro, Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), and Nuclear Technology Other costs are based on the 2022 NREL database** CREZ potential*** and Awarded Service Contracts as of April 2023 are set as limits for RE Used 3 major nodes for analysis: Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao RE Targets set to 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040 Interconnection used were Leyte to Luzon HVDC and Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Project (MVIP) Note: * - Data from NGCP ** - Data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) *** - Data from Grid Planning and Competitive RE Zones (CREZ) in the Philippines Report 27 The electricity sales forecast is estimated using macroeconomic models as it is found to be highly correlated with income and population. Gross domestic product, sectoral value added, and Household expenditures are used as proxy data for income. Socio-economic variables vis-à-vis assumptions and their corresponding data sources used in projecting electricity sales are listed in Table 25. Table 25. Assumptions used in the Electricity Sales Forecast Variables Real GDP (2018=100) Assumption 2022 (actual): 7.6% Source/Remarks NEDA-DBCC interval 2023-2028 (December 2022); 27 Grid Planning and Competitive RE Zones in the Philippines Report Retrieved through https://www.doe.gov.ph/renewable-energy/ready-renewables-grid-planning-and-competitiverenewable-energy-zones-crez POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 52 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-053.pdf === Variables Assumption Source/Remarks 2029 to 2050: adopted the trend of GDP projections from HSBC 2023: 6% - 7% 2024-2028: 6.5% - 8% 2040: 7.1%, 2050: 6.3% 2020-2030: 1.1% Population 2030-2040: 0.9% FOREX 2040-2050: 0.8% Php52 per US$ until 2050 Crude Price (US$/barrel) US$70-90 for 2023-2050 Inflation 2%-4% [3% as midpoint] until 2050 Household Electrification Rate 100% by 2028 Electric Vehicles CREVI for CES: 50% EV fleet share by 2040 2020 POPCEN actual 10-year adjusted growth rates based on 2020 POPCEN NEDA-DBCC (December 2022) NEDA-DBCC (December 2022) OPEC, WB NEDA-DBCC (December 2022) Projections by grid (Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao) are derived through a bottom-up approach, employing disaggregation by sectors (i.e., household, services/commercial, industrial, and other sectors). The sectoral electricity demand by grid follows a specific methodology: • • • • Household (HH) electricity sales. Estimations are made by regressing historical demand against the number of households and household expenditure in each major region. Services/Commercial electricity sales. Projections are based on its historical sales by grid, population by grid, and gross value added (GVA) the sector. Industry electricity sales. Projections for industrial electricity sales are determined through regressing its grid historical data with GVA for manufacturing, construction, and mining. Other sector’s electricity sales. Establishment of the relationship between the gross regional domestic product (GDP) by the main region and grid historical data for electricity consumption in other sectors. To enhance the accuracy of demand forecasting, the projections also incorporate the potential impact of a 50% penetration of electric vehicles (EV) by the year 2040. 2.2 Electricity Sales Forecast The forecast for electricity sales across the three main grids spanning 2021-2050 is outlined in Table 27 under the Reference Scenario (Ref) and Clean Energy Scenario (CES). This projection considers various future factors, including the impacts of distributed photovoltaics (PV), the adoption of electric vehicles (EV), the implementation of demand-side management programs, and improvements in energy efficiency. The electricity sales forecast indicates an annual average growth rate (AAGR) of 5.4% for aggregate electricity sales in the country from 2022 to 2050 under the CES. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 53 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-054.pdf === This growth trajectory of electricity sales under CES is anticipated to increase from 91,333 GWh in 2022 to 403,465 GWh in 2050. The Luzon Grid is expected to maintain the majority share, accounting for over 72.5% of the total, with the remaining portions contributed by the Visayas (15.9%) and Mindanao grids (14.0%) by the year 2050. Table 26. Electricity Sales Forecast (2021-2050), in GWh Year Reference Scenario Clean Energy Scenario Philippines Luzon Visayas Mindanao Philippines Luzon Visayas Mindanao 2021 87,417 64,420 11,555 11,442 87,417 64,420 11,555 11,442 2022 91,333 67,536 11,866 11,931 91,333 67,536 11,866 11,931 2023 96,075 70,952 12,537 12,586 96,040 70,903 12,537 12,600 2024 100,155 73,780 13,127 13,249 100,182 73,745 13,141 13,296 2025 105,220 77,286 13,896 14,038 105,345 77,291 13,931 14,124 2026 111,109 81,377 14,832 14,900 111,366 81,428 14,893 15,045 2027 117,653 85,927 15,900 15,826 118,041 86,025 15,988 16,028 2028 124,797 90,901 17,085 16,811 125,302 91,024 17,199 17,078 2029 132,399 96,183 18,358 17,858 132,973 96,293 18,491 18,188 2030 140,459 101,777 19,710 18,973 141,039 101,825 19,853 19,361 2031 149,027 107,735 21,148 20,145 149,485 107,650 21,280 20,555 2032 158,062 114,024 22,664 21,375 158,332 113,756 22,775 21,801 2033 167,588 120,660 24,259 22,670 167,637 120,174 24,346 23,117 2034 177,624 127,655 25,934 24,036 177,417 126,922 25,992 24,503 2035 188,188 135,023 27,689 25,476 187,694 134,016 27,714 25,964 2036 199,260 142,766 29,526 26,968 198,439 141,449 29,512 27,478 2037 210,870 150,901 31,445 28,524 209,678 149,236 31,388 29,054 2038 223,045 159,444 33,450 30,150 221,505 157,436 33,354 30,714 2039 235,809 168,407 35,544 31,857 233,863 166,011 35,402 32,450 2040 249,186 177,810 37,729 33,647 246,816 175,005 37,539 34,272 2041 262,514 187,196 39,908 35,411 260,044 184,269 39,712 36,064 2042 276,378 196,978 42,166 37,234 273,781 193,913 41,960 37,909 2043 290,798 207,169 44,506 39,123 288,048 203,944 44,286 39,818 2044 305,794 217,779 46,929 41,086 302,863 214,374 46,692 41,797 2045 321,381 228,817 49,436 43,127 318,241 225,211 49,178 43,852 2046 337,524 240,280 52,027 45,218 334,150 236,450 51,745 45,954 2047 354,247 252,176 54,703 47,367 350,610 248,103 54,394 48,113 2048 371,567 264,516 57,467 49,583 367,640 260,177 57,127 50,336 2049 389,499 277,307 60,319 51,873 385,254 272,680 59,944 52,630 2050 408,057 290,557 63,260 54,240 403,465 285,619 62,847 54,999 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 54 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-055.pdf === 2.3 Peak Demand Forecast The determination of peak demand involves considering the average load factors of the grids spanning 2016 to 2022 (Table 27) with 70.2% for the Luzon grid, 70.2%, and 68.7% for the Visayas and Mindanao grids, respectively. The total peak demand for the country will significantly increase from 16,596 MW (2022) to 68,483 MW (2050), which corresponds to an annual average growth rate of 5.2%. Notably, the Luzon grid constitutes the predominant share at 73.0% at the base year (2022) and is seen to marginally decline by three percentage points (or 70.1%) by 2050. The decrease is attributed to the accelerated growth observed in the Visayas and Mindanao grids over the same period. Luzon grid’s annual average growth rate is recorded at 5.0%, while Visayas and Mindanao are at 5.6% and 5.5%, respectively. Table 27. Load Factors Assumptions Grid Load Factor28 (%) Luzon 70.2 Visayas 70.2 Mindanao 68.7 Table 28. Peak Demand Forecast (2021-2050) in MW Year Luzon Visayas Mindanao Philippines 2021* 2022* 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 11,640 12,113 12,559 13,092 13,728 14,466 15,274 16,149 17,070 18,038 18,985 19,982 21,031 22,134 23,293 24,506 25,778 27,116 28,516 29,984 31,496 33,069 34,705 2,252 2,316 2,464 2,538 2,687 2,864 3,063 3,280 3,511 3,753 3,990 4,238 4,496 4,766 5,047 5,340 5,643 5,961 6,291 6,634 6,985 7,347 7,720 2,144 2,167 2,315 2,425 2,588 2,766 2,954 3,153 3,363 3,585 3,790 4,004 4,229 4,467 4,717 4,975 5,245 5,529 5,827 6,140 6,455 6,780 7,117 16,036 16,596 17,338 18,056 19,003 20,097 21,291 22,582 23,944 25,376 26,765 28,224 29,757 31,367 33,056 34,821 36,666 38,606 40,634 42,759 44,936 47,196 49,542 28 Six-Year Average Load Factors for Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao Grids from 2016 to 2022 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 55 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-056.pdf === 2.4 Year Luzon Visayas Mindanao Philippines 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 *Actual Values 36,405 38,172 40,003 41,902 43,869 45,906 48,014 8,106 8,503 8,913 9,335 9,770 10,218 10,678 7,466 7,828 8,198 8,579 8,970 9,374 9,791 51,977 54,503 57,115 59,816 62,609 65,497 68,483 Generator Parameters The CEM was built on a per-power plant basis using the DOE List of Existing Power Plants, which includes grid-connected and embedded generating facilities. The registered Pmax capacities from WESM were employed to represent the maximum dispatchable capacities of all generating units, including new and derated capacities. For conventional or non-renewable plants, the modeling process relied on technical and operating parameters submitted to the DOE (e.g., heat rates, maintenance and forced outage rates, monthly generation). In contrast, RE plants were modeled with a monthly and hourly profiling basis/approach. Hydro, Geothermal, and Biomass plants were monthly profiled using available data submissions to the DOE. Solar and Wind plants were profiled hourly using weather data29. To streamline the process, all solar and wind plants were clustered into regional locations for profiling purposes. 2.5 Capacity Additions The capacity additions for the CEM are structured into two distinct categories: 1) committed power projects, as shown in Table 29, and 2) new build capacities, as determined by the PLEXOS® as the modeling tool. This process incorporates considerations for emerging technologies, specifically nuclear technology, offshore wind, and energy storage systems. Notably, the new build options exclude any assumptions for coal plants, aligning with the DOE coal moratorium advisory. The 2022 annual technology baseline database of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory30 (NREL) is adopted for the cost parameters of the new builds. These include fuel costs, build costs, variable, and fixed costs, among others. The DOE-awarded RE service contracts and the potential of the competitive RE-zones projects31 are set as limits for maximum build capacity per technology in the CEM. 29 Weather Data through Renewables Ninja Retrieved through https://www.renewables.ninja/ 30 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Baseline Database Retrieved through https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2022/technologies 31 Ready for Renewables - Grid Planning and Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) in the Philippines Retrieved through https://www.doe.gov.ph/renewable-energy/ready-renewables-grid-planning-and-competitiverenewable-energy-zones-crez POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 56 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-057.pdf === Table 29. DOE’s List of Committed and GEAP Awarded Power Projects as of 30 April 2023 Installed Capacity Power Plant Target Commercial Operation Luzon Coal 1,900.00 Mariveles Coal-Fired Power Plant Phase I 600.00 Mariveles Coal-Fired Power Plant Phase II 600.00 Masinloc Power Plant 700.00 Natural Gas Batangas Combined Cycle Power Plant Phase 1 Natural Gas-Fired Power Plant Biomass 2.4 MW Biogas Power Plant Project 1.2 MW Biogas Power Plant Project Isabela Rice husk-Fired Biomass Power Plant Project Geothermal Palayan Binary Power Plant Tanawon Geothermal Project Tiwi Binary Geothermal Project Maibarara 3 Geothermal Power Project Bacman 4 Botong - Rangas Geothermal Project Kayabon Geothermal Project Kalinga Geothermal Power Project - Phase 1 Kalinga Geothermal Power Project - Phase 2 Kalinga Geothermal Power Project - Phase 3 Mt. Malinao Geothermal Project Labo Geothermal Power Project Hydro Biyao Hydroelectric Power Plant Colasi Hydroelectric Power Plant Matuno Hydroelectric Power Plant Laguio (Laginbayan) Malaki 1 Hydroelectric Power Plant Mariveles Hydroelectric Power Project Ibulao Hydroelectric Power Project Labayat River (Lower Cascade) Hydroelectric Power Project Lalawinan Hydroelectric Power Plant Tibag Hydroelectric Power Plant Rangas Hydroelectric Power Plant Dupinga Hydroelectric Power Project Kapangan Hydroelectric Power Project Tignoan River (Upper Cascade) Hydroelectric Power Plant Daet Hydroelectric Power Project Tubao Hydroelectric Power Plant Sablan 1 Hydroelectric Power Project Asin-Hungduan Hydroelectric Power Project Ibulao 1 Hydroelectric Power Project Likud 2 Hydroelectric Power Project Dipalo Hydroelectric Power Project Unit 1 – Aug 2023 Unit 2 – Nov 2023 Unit 3 – Jan 2024 Unit 4 – May 2024 Unit 5 – Dec 2025 Unit 6 – Mar 2026 Unit 7 – Jun 2026 Unit 8 – Sep 2026 Unit 4 – Jun 2025 Unit 5 – Dec 2025 2,412.50 1,312.50 1,100.00 8.60 2.40 1.20 5.00 411.00 29.00 20.00 17.00 20.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 50.00 105.00 146.87 0.80 4.00 8.66 Unit 1&2 – Sep 2024 Unit 3 – Dec 2024 Jan 2027 Aug 2023 Jan 2024 Aug 2023 Jun 2023 Dec 2024 Dec 2023 Dec 2025 Dec 2026 Dec 2026 Dec 2030 Dec 2032 Dec 2034 Dec 2025 Dec 2027 Dec 2023 Jul 2023 Jun 2023 1.60 Aug 2023 0.60 4.50 Aug 2023 Jul 2023 1.40 Jun 2023 3.00 5.00 2.40 4.80 60.00 Dec 2024 Jun 2023 Dec 2025 Jul 2023 Dec 2025 1.50 Dec 2025 5.00 1.50 20.00 9.80 7.60 0.56 4.15 Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Nov 2025 Jun 2024 Jun 2024 Dec 2024 Dec 2025 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 57 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-058.pdf === Power Plant Solar Bulacan 2 Solar Power Project Concepcion 1 Solar Power Project (Phase 3) Concepcion 1 Solar Power Project (Phase 4) Ilocos Norte Solar Power Project Cayanga-Bugallon Solar Power Project PAVI Green Naga Solar Power Plant Project Talugtug Solar Power Project Concepcion Tarlac 2 Solar Power Project Santa Rosa Nueva Ecija 2 Solar Power Project Tayabas Solar Power Project Arayat-Mexico Solar Power Plant Project Phase 2 Pinugay Solar Power Project Raslag III Solar PV Power Project Currimao Solar Power Project Lal-lo Hybrid Solar Power Project Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase I) Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase 2) Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase 3) Sapang Balen Solar 1 Power Project Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase 4) Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase 5) Wind Caparispisan II Wind Power Project Calatagan Wind Power Project Balaoi and Caunayan Wind Power Project Battery Energy Storage System Lamao Battery Energy Storage System Lamao Phase 2 Battery Energy Storage System BCCP Battery Energy Storage System San Manuel Battery Energy Storage System San Manuel Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Gamu Battery Energy Storage System Gamu Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Magapit Battery Energy Storage System Magapit Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Concepcion Battery Energy Storage System Concepcion Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Lumban Battery Energy Storage System Lumban Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Mexico Battery Energy Storage System Mexico Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Mahabang Parang Battery Energy Storage System Daraga Battery Energy Storage System Bauang Battery Energy Storage Project Labrador Battery Energy Storage System San Rafael Battery Energy Storage System Cabanatuan Battery Energy Storage Hermosa Battery Energy Storage System Laoag Battery Energy Storage System Project Navotas Battery Energy Storage System Project Mexico SJM Battery Energy Storage System Pagbilao Battery Energy Storage System Bacnotan Battery Energy Storage System Subic Battery Energy Storage System San Jose del Monte Battery Energy Storage System Bolo Battery Energy Storage System Installed Capacity 2,095.21 17.60 12.00 30.00 87.59 74.80 40.40 99.98 200.00 280.00 450.00 30.93 67.50 13.60 48.12 82.45 92.80 92.80 92.80 96.24 92.80 92.80 260.00 70.00 30.00 160.00 1,504.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 20.00 30.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 20.00 50.00 20.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 20.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 20.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 Target Commercial Operation Dec 2024 Jun 2023 Aug 2023 Feb 2023 Aug 2023 Dec 2024 Mar 2025 Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Mar 2023 Mar 2023 Mar 2023 Jun 2023 Sep 2023 Dec 2024 Jun 2025 Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Jun 2026 Dec 2026 Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Dec 2025 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Aug 2023 Aug 2023 Dec 2023 Jan 2024 Sep 2023 Sep 2023 Sep 2023 Sep 2023 Sep 2023 Sep 2023 Sep 2023 Sep 2023 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 58 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-059.pdf === Power Plant Tuguegarao Battery Energy Storage System Bayombong Battery Energy Storage System Calamba Battery Energy Storage System Labo Battery Energy Storage System Naga Battery Energy Storage System San Rafael Battery Energy Storage Phase 2 Sual Battery Energy Storage System Urdaneta Battery Energy Storage System Dasmarinas Battery Energy Storage System Ilijan Battery Energy Storage System Gumaca Battery Energy Storage System La Trinidad Battery Energy Storage System BCCP Limay Battery Energy Storage System Project Phase 2 Angat Battery Energy Storage System Project Visayas Coal Palm Concepcion Coal-fired Power Plant Diesel 11.174 MW Calbayog Bunker C-Fired Diesel Power Plant Sulzer Diesel Power Plant Caterpillar Diesel Power Plant Cummins Diesel Power Plant Biomass 6 MW Biomass Power Plant Project Central Azucarera de San Antonio Geothermal Biliran Geothermal Plant Project Unit 1 Biliran Geothermal Plant Project Unit 2 Biliran Geothermal Plant Project Unit 3 Biliran Geothermal Plant Project Unit 4 Biliran Geothermal Plant Project Unit 5 Northern Negros Geothermal Project Mahanagdong Geothermal Brine Optimization Plant Dauin Geothermal Project Hydro Igbulo (Bais) Hydroelectric Power Project Tmbaban Hydroelectric Power Project Solar Kananga-Ormoc Solar Power Project Wind 13.2MW Nabas-2 Wind Power Project Battery Energy Storage System Toledo Battery Energy Storage System Ubay Battery Energy Storage System Ormoc Battery Energy Storage System Ormoc Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Tabango Battery Energy Storage System Dingle Battery Energy Storage System Samboan Battery Energy Storage System Compostela Battery Energy Storage System Nabas Battery Energy Storage System Calbayog Battery Energy Storage System Tabango Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Toledo Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Installed Capacity 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 20.00 60.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 Target Commercial Operation Sep 2024 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 May 2025 May 2025 May 2025 May 2025 May 2025 May 2025 May 2025 20.00 May 2025 20.00 May 2025 135.00 135.00 19.67 Jun 2026 11.17 Jul 2023 5.50 2.00 1.00 14.00 6.00 8.00 131.60 2.00 6.00 10.00 10.00 22.00 5.60 36.00 40.00 23.10 5.10 18.00 300.00 300.00 13.20 13.20 300.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 Dec 2023 Dec 2023 Dec 2023 Sep 2024 Dec 2025 Dec 2026 Dec 2027 Sep 2024 Dec 2024 Dec 2025 Dec-2023 Aug-2023 Dec 2025 May 2025 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 20.00 Jul 2023 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 Jul 2023 Dec 2023 Sep 2023 Sep 2023 Sep 2024 Sep 2024 May 2025 May 2025 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 59 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-060.pdf === Power Plant Installed Capacity 20.00 20.00 20.00 San Carlos Battery Energy Storage System Mactan Battery Energy Storage System Ubay Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 Mindanao Coal 270.00 Misamis Oriental 2 x 135 MW Circulating Fluidized Bed 270.00 Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plant Biomass 19.40 10 MW Biomass Cogeneration Plant 3.40 10 MW Biomass Cogeneration Plant 10.00 6 MW Biomass Power Plant Project 6.00 Hydro 72.42 Sipangpang Hydroelectric Power Plant 1.80 Maramag Hydroelectric Power Project 2.04 Liangan Hydropower Project 18.00 Siguil Hydroelectric Power Project 14.50 Tagpangi Hydroelectric Power Project 1.70 Osmeña Hydroelectric Power Project 1.00 Gakaon Hydroelectric Power Project 2.23 Maladugao (Upper Cascade) Hydroelectric Power 8.40 Project Titunod Hydroelectric Power Project 3.60 Malitbog Hydroelectric Power Project 3.70 Silo-O Hydroelectric Power Project 3.70 Mat-I 1 Hydroelectric Power Project 4.85 Clarin Hydroelectric Power Project 6.90 Solar 120.00 General Santos Solar Power Project 120.00 Battery Energy Storage System 280.00 Pitogo Battery Energy Storage System 60.00 Sangali Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 Maco Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 Villanueva Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 Jasaan Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 Tagum Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 Aurora Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 Tagoloan Battery Energy Storage System Phase 2 20.00 Placer Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 Maramag Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 General Santos Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 Malita Battery Energy Storage System 20.00 Source: List of Private Sector-Initiated Power Projects as of April 2023 3. Target Commercial Operation May 2025 May 2025 May 2025 Mar 2027 Nov 2023 Dec 2023 Sep 2023 May 2023 Jun 2023 Aug 2023 Jun 2023 Dec 2023 Dec 2023 Dec 2024 Jan 2025 Dec 2024 Nov 2025 Nov 2025 Nov 2025 Nov 2025 Dec 2025 Dec 2023 Nov 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 Jul 2023 2023 May 2025 May 2025 May 2025 May 2025 Jul 2023 CEM Simulation 3.1 CEM Settings The CEM finds the long-term (LT) least-cost solution for a given horizon based on costs and constraint assumptions stated above. The objective function of this LT Plan seeks to minimize the net present value of build costs, fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs, and production costs. The running horizon is set from the year 2022 to 2050 with an hourly granularity or one-hour interval during the run, allowing the model to capture the variability of RE plants. The POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 60 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-061.pdf === year 2022 was set as the base year for the technical parameters of existing power plants and committed power projects. 3.2 Reserves To provide sufficient supply to the demand needs, the CEM also integrates the current reserve or ancillary services requirements in the assumption. These include : 1) regulating reserve, which is equivalent to four (4) percent of the peak demand per grid, 2) contingency reserve, which corresponds to the capacity of the largest running generating unit per grid, and 3) dispatchable reserve, which corresponds to the second largest running generating unit per grid. Given the high targets of RE, the provision of reserves is vital to find a Long Term (LT) supply solution to sufficiently meet the forecasted demand in any region. Since the CEM is a per-plant model, the ancillary service agreement procurement plan submitted to the DOE by the NGCP was reflected in these reserve provisions. 3.3 Nodal Assumptions The iterative analysis made in the CEM is nodal. To reduce the running time in PLEXOS® and to simplify the process, only the three (3) on-grid major island groups of the Philippines were considered as nodes in the CEM on a single-bus approach, namely: Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao grids. The demand and supply from off-grid areas were excluded in this simulation. To connect the three nodes, the existing 440 MW HVDC line between Luzon and Leyte and the 450 MW HVDC line project between Zamboanga and Cebu or the MindanaoVisayas Interconnection Project (MVIP) were considered. The MVIP is expected to be online in full load starting in 2024. The planned expansion of the NGCP for the existing transmission line of LuzonLeyte HVDC, with an additional capacity of 440 MW starting 2026, and the MVIP with an additional capacity of 450 MW starting 2041, were also considered in the model as shown in Figure 16. Existing: 440 MW HVDC Leyte-Luzon Expansion Plan: 440 MW to be completed by 2025 2024: 450 MW Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Project Expansion Plan: 450 MW to be completed by 2040 Figure 16. Existing Island Interconnections and Transmission Line Interconnection Projects POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 61 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-062.pdf === 4. Power Demand and Supply Outlook 4.1 Scenarios The DOE has simulated the scenario assumptions, outlining the future generation capacity expansion plan to ensure a reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable power supply in the country. 1. Reference Scenario. This scenario aligns with the National Renewable Energy (RE) power generation mix target of 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040 up to 2050. It serves as a baseline for evaluating the progression of the country's energy landscape. 2. Clean Energy Scenario 1 (CES 1). This scenario incorporates a combination of more than 50% RE share by 2050, Low Offshore Wind (19GW by 2050), Nuclear Technology of 1,200 MW by 2032, 2,400 MW by 2035 and 4,800 MW by 2050, and Coal Repurposing. 3. Clean Energy Scenario 2 (CES 2). This scenario incorporates a combination of more than 50% RE share by 2050, High Offshore Wind (50GW by 2050), Nuclear Technology (same assumption as CES 1), and Coal Repurposing. Both CES 1 and 2 entail the repurposing of existing coal-fired power plants. The DOE is presently engaged in discussions regarding offers and financing mechanisms from multi-lateral development partners on this undertaking and will be conducting forums to inform concerned stakeholders about the outcomes and ways forward. The DOE has also yet to run scenarios involving new emerging technologies such as hydrogen and ammonia co-firing power plants, and ocean thermal technologies. These emerging technologies are recognized as potential alternatives for cleaner energy sources and are earmarked for inclusion in future energy planning. Lastly, future simulations may also include a saturation study on RE technologies as part of the enhancement of the CEM. 4.2 Results The model effectively provided insights into the technological mix required for the generation sector to align with the projected load envisioned in the CEM. The findings indicate that all scenarios successfully meet the targets set by NREP 2020-2040, aiming for 35% and 50% power generation mix by 2030 and 2040, respectively. To attain the objectives, the Philippines' existing supply capacity must increase five times by 2050 under the reference scenario and CES 1, and six times under CES 2. This ambitious scale-up is essential for accommodating the anticipated growth in power demand and facilitating the transition towards a more sustainable and cleaner energy mix. To further support the increased integration of variable renewable energy in both CES 1 and CES 2, particularly the growing impact of offshore wind technology (19 GW and 50 GW), the simulation has incorporated a flexible generation capacity of about 12 to 15 percent of the total, coming from natural gas technology. Additionally, around 20,000 MW (combination of 1H, 2H and 4H duration) of battery energy storage system were also included. These measures POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 62 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-063.pdf === aim to provide a responsive power system in terms of grid stability and intermittency of VREs not only during peak and low demand periods but also act as ancillary service in the event of significant unplanned outages of VRE sources, specifically with the targets of 19 GW and 50 GW of OSW and during other various operating conditions. A more detailed breakdown of the results, specifically pertaining to the main island grids of the Philippines, is expounded upon in this section. For a comprehensive overview of the CEM simulations covering the entirety of the Philippines and individual major island grids including comparison of all scenarios and data assumptions, readers are encouraged to scan the provided QR code for access to additional information. For full information of the Data Assumptions and Simulation Results of the CEM for the Reference Scenario, CES1, and CES 2, kindly scan this QR code. Alternate link: http://tinyurl.com/PDP2023to2050 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 63 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-064.pdf === a) Reference Scenario (35% RE Generation by 2030 and 50% RE Generation by 2040) i. Luzon Grid The Luzon installed capacity requirements is needed to increase by about four times from 19,746 MW in 2022 to 80,781 MW in 2050 coming from the existing, committed, and new build capacities32. The required BESS to support grid stability should also increase from 72 MW to 2,438 MW by 2050 as depicted in Figure 17. Installed Capacity, MW 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Existing New Oil New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery New Coal New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind Peak Demand 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - New Natural Gas New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Minimum Reserve Margin Figure 17. Reference - Luzon Power Demand and Supply Outlook To meet Luzon’s electricity demand of 48,014 MW by 2050 under the reference scenario, the simulation results have emphasized the need for a new build RE capacity of 43,540 MW on top of existing plants and committed projects. The RE capacity must increase eleven times from its current capacity of 4,910 MW. The proposed additions include 25,926 MW Solar, 12,644 MW Wind, 4,490 MW Hydro, 430 MW geothermal, and 50 MW biomass projects. Recognizing the variability of RE sources, the simulation has resulted also in an additional 7,544 MW of natural gas plant facilities and BESS technology of 866 MW to provide support and stability in the power system (Table 30). 32 New build capacities are defined as the additional generation capacity to be connected in a power system network to meet the electricity demand within a specified period. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 64 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-065.pdf === Table 30. Reference - Luzon New Build Capacities Particulars, in MW New Coal New Natural Gas New Oil New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal New GroundMounted Solar New Floating solar New BTM Solar New Hydro + ROR New Impounding Hydro New Pumped Hydro New Wind New OSW New Battery ESS 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total - - 30 100 4,180 50 100 3,364 200 7,544 50 430 1,276 2,289 5,234 5,964 3,211 5,495 23,469 - 301 38 - 567 59 470 600 90 1,000 301 150 400 231 120 420 2,000 457 2,290 - - - - 900 1,000 1,900 510 - 1,172 - 2,360 - 2,750 - 2,102 866 300 2,750 1,000 - 300 11,644 1,000 866 Note: Values presented herein are values of new build capacities every five-milestone year Below is the structured breakdown which provides a clear reference for each technology's new build capacity and the respective milestone years of commercial operation. New Build Capacities, MW 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2025 2030 New Coal New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind 2035 2040 New Natural Gas New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW 2045 2050 New Oil New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 18. Reference - Luzon New Build Capacities per Technology The new build capacities for this scenario resulted in a Luzon power generation mix with a diversified energy portfolio of natural gas plants share at 34% and RE at 47% by 2050. Meanwhile, the gross generation share of coal power plants is projected to be reduced at a significant rate from 59% to 19% by 2050, as depicted in Figure 19 and Table 31. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 65 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-066.pdf === Generation Mix, GWh 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Coal WTE BTM Solar Wind NatGas Geothermal ROR Hydro OSW Oil-Based Solar Impounding Hydro Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - Biomass Floating Solar Pumped Hydro Figure 19. Reference - Luzon Power Generation Mix Table 31. Reference - Luzon Power Generation in GWh and Percent Share Plant Type 2023 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total BESS 49,643 18,044 1,575 14,935 1,615 0 4,490 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar 59 21 2 18 2 5 2 2025 2030 2035 Power Generation, in GWh 48,368 55,936 53,358 23,377 31,478 43,010 764 764 764 20,564 32,785 49,019 763 700 703 0 0 0 4,602 5,150 6,199 2040 2045 2050 50,918 41,527 764 68,684 717 0 7,037 48,200 64,384 764 83,093 920 0 7,807 45,622 80,043 764 110,141 834 0 9,286 1,842 5,650 10,656 18,382 26,240 29,716 38,565 0 55 1,308 0 16 1,549 530 62 1,878 1,380 137 3,756 2,115 240 7,978 2,569 433 9,656 2,996 643 11,352 3,275 3,543 3,630 2,626 2,662 5,343 6,217 1,488 1,358 1,396 1,254 1,293 1,405 1,725 3,085 8,782 14,584 20,403 0 0 0 0 93,073 120,963 146,151 161,892 18 24 317 329 Power Generation, in Percent (%) Share 52 46 37 31 25 26 29 26 1 1 1 0 22 27 34 42 1 1 0 0 5 4 4 4 6 9 13 16 25,245 0 196,441 958 35,023 3,500 236,570 577 25 33 0 42 0 4 15 19 34 0 47 0 4 16 1 1 864 0 84,199 0 - - 0 1 1 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 66 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-067.pdf === 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 2 4 0 2 4 0 2 3 0 3 2 0 5 2 0 5 3 0 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 100 3 100 7 100 10 100 13 100 13 100 15 1 100 Visayas Grid The Visayas installed capacity requirements is needed to increase by about twelve times from 3,971 MW in 2022 to 47,450 MW in 2050 coming from the existing, committed, and new build capacities cities. The required BESS to support grid stability should also increase from 35 MW to 969 MW by 2050 (Figure 20). Installed Capacity, MW 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Existing New Oil New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery New Coal New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind Peak Demand 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 - 2023 ii. Plant Type BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total New Natural Gas New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Minimum Reserve Margin Figure 20. Reference - Visayas Power Demand and Supply Outlook To meet Visayas’ electricity demand of 10,678 MW by 2050 under the reference scenario, the simulation results have shown the need for a new build RE capacity of 30,261 MW on top of existing plants and committed projects. The RE capacity must increase seventeen times from its current capacity of 1,914 MW. The proposed additions include 12,876 MW Solar, 15,965 MW Wind, 1,380 MW Hydro, and 40 MW geothermal projects. The simulation has resulted also in an additional of 11,904 MW natural gas POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 67 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-068.pdf === plant facilities and BESS technology of 634 MW to provide support and stability in the power system (Table 32). Table 32. Reference - Visayas New Build Capacities Particulars, in MW New Coal New Natural Gas New Oil New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal New GroundMounted Solar New Floating solar New BTM Solar New Hydro + ROR New Impounding Hydro New Pumped Hydro New Wind New OSW New Battery 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total - - 1,434 - 3,762 - 3,344 - 3,364 - 11,904 - - - - 10 10 20 40 599 1,100 2,097 2,500 4,501 79 10,876 40 - 600 90 - 400 250 150 250 215 370 15 - 1,000 1,000 380 - - - - - - - - - - - - 1,000 1,000 532 - 1,088 - 1,664 - 2,665 2,500 - 3,174 1,300 634 42 2,000 - 10,165 5,800 634 Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Below is the breakdown showing each technology's new build capacity and the respective milestone years of commercial operation. New Build Capacities, MW 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2025 2030 New Coal New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind 2035 2040 New Natural Gas New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW 2045 2050 New Oil New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 21. Reference - Visayas New Build Capacities per Technology The new build capacities added for this scenario resulted in Visayas power generation mix diversified energy portfolio with natural gas and RE plants both at 48% share. Coal plants were reduced at a significant rate from 44% to 4% by 2050, as depicted in Figure 22 and Table 33. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 68 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-069.pdf === Generation Mix, GWh 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Coal NatGas Oil-Based Biomass WTE Geothermal Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - Figure 22. Reference - Visayas Power Generation Mix Table 33. Reference - Visayas Power Generation in GWh and Percent Share Plant Type Coal Natural Gas Oil-based RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total BESS Coal Natural Gas Oil-based RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar 2023 6,723 0 494 8,190 584 0 6,691 2040 2045 2050 7,583 27,732 175 50,866 199 0 8,588 7,178 46,109 175 67,320 244 0 8,688 6,794 78,706 174 79,408 242 0 8,815 620 1,201 3,419 6,434 10,275 14,611 14,024 0 0 65 0 48 76 818 172 76 1,440 523 696 1,439 903 1,603 1,382 1,249 1,670 1,433 1,188 1,659 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,694 1,814 6,038 12,751 18,670 0 0 0 9,190 18,096 27,902 46,598 86,356 5 21 68 76 Power Generation, in Percent (%) Share 43 30 17 9 17 32 1 1 0 0 56 70 65 59 2 1 0 0 37 31 18 10 7 12 14 12 25,944 13,532 120,782 600 28,576 21,775 165,082 405 6 38 0 56 0 7 12 4 48 0 48 0 5 8 1 1 231 0 15,407 0 44 3 53 4 43 4 - 2025 2030 2035 Power Generation, in GWh 7,800 8,330 7,946 0 0 8,035 178 178 175 10,117 19,394 30,443 339 339 189 0 0 0 6,640 8,533 8,409 - 3 3 2 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 69 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-070.pdf === 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 1 1 - - - - - - - 1 1 100 10 100 22 100 27 100 22 11 100 21 11 100 17 13 100 Mindanao Grid The Mindanao installed capacity requirements is needed to increase by about five times from 4,542 MW in 2022 to 22,736 MW in 2050 coming from the existing, committed, and new build capacities cities. The required BESS for grid stability should also increase from 49 MW to 373 MW by 2050 as shown in Figure 23. Installed Capacity, MW 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Existing New Coal New Natural Gas New Oil New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal New Ground-Mounted Solar New Floating solar New BTM Solar New Hydro + ROR New Impounding Hydro New Pumped Hydro New Wind New OSW New Battery Peak Demand Minimum Reserve Margin 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 - 2023 iii. Plant Type BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total Figure 23. Reference - Mindanao Power Demand and Supply Outlook To meet Mindanao’s electricity demand of 9,791 MW by 2050 under the reference scenario, the simulation results have shown a new build RE capacity of 17,616 MW on top of existing plants and committed projects. The RE capacity must increase thirteen times from its current capacity of 1,441 MW. The proposed additions include 11,653 MW Solar, 1,498 MW Wind, 4,125 MW Hydro, and 340 MW geothermal projects. The simulation has resulted also in an additional of 20 MW natural gas plant facilities POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 70 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-071.pdf === and BESS technology of 44 MW to provide support and stability in the power system as indicated in Table 34. Table 34. Reference - Mindanao New Build Capacities Particulars, in MW New Coal New Natural Gas New Oil New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal New GroundMounted Solar New Floating solar New BTM Solar New Hydro + ROR New Impounding Hydro New Pumped Hydro 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total - - - - - 20 - 20 - - - - 340 - - 340 - 1,100 1,500 2,500 2,952 2,151 10,203 - 300 25 700 50 900 100 1,200 150 600 150 600 1,000 450 3,325 - - - - - 800 800 - - - - - - - 298 1,200 1,498 New Wind New OSW 44 44 New Battery Note: Values presented herein are values of new build capacities every five-milestone year Below is a breakdown of each technology's new build capacity and the respective milestone years of commercial operation. New Build Capacities, MW 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 New Coal New Natural Gas New Oil New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal New Ground-Mounted Solar New Floating solar New BTM Solar New Hydro + ROR New Impounding Hydro New Pumped Hydro New Wind New OSW New Battery Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 24. Reference - Mindanao New Build Capacities per Technology The new build capacities added for this scenario resulted in the Mindanao diversified power generation mix with RE plants share at 78% with a significant reduction in coal plants production from 68% to 22% by 2050, as depicted in Figure 25 and Table 35. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 71 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-072.pdf === Generation Mix, GWh 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Coal NatGas Oil-Based Biomass WTE Geothermal Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - Figure 25. Reference - Mindanao Power Generation Mix Table 35. Reference - Mindanao Power Generation in GWh and Percent Share Plant Type 2023 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total BESS 10,055 0 486 4,243 122 0 713 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro 2040 2045 2050 12,667 0 125 25,267 85 0 3,253 11,991 0 125 34,315 87 0 3,262 11,350 11 125 40,676 84 0 3,184 7,140 1,439 201 11,352 10,757 1,270 343 13,856 13,214 1,194 464 16,352 1,123 1,131 1,026 1,063 0 0 0 0 0 809 774 734 0 0 0 0 17,095 21,481 27,540 38,059 5 19 60 61 Power Generation, in Percent (%) Share 68 75 65 48 33 3 1 1 0 0 29 25 35 51 66 1 0 0 0 0 5 4 3 2 9 1,170 0 3,570 0 46,431 96 2,299 0 3,887 0 52,162 39 26 0 74 0 7 22 0 0 78 0 6 128 0 0 2,040 2025 2030 2035 Power Generation, in GWh 12,780 13,916 13,274 0 0 0 125 125 125 4,190 7,440 14,140 84 85 83 0 0 0 668 691 629 104 0 0 2,210 1,893 409 0 2,422 3,892 1,417 68 6,251 1,239 0 0 0 14,784 3 1 1 9 14 19 23 25 14 0 13 2 0 11 5 0 23 4 1 30 3 1 30 2 1 31 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 72 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-073.pdf === Plant Type 2023 Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 8 7 5 4 3 3 4 - - 4 - 3 - 2 - 8 - 7 - 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 b) Clean Energy Scenario 1 (CES 1) – Low Offshore Wind (Low Offshore Wind Technology + Nuclear Technology + Coal Repurposing) Luzon Grid Under the CES 1 simulation, the Luzon installed capacity requirements should increase by about five times from 19,746 MW in 2022 to 101,212 MW in 2050 coming from the existing, committed, and new build capacities. The required BESS to support grid stability should also increase from 72 MW to 13,418 MW by 2050 while a total of 3,287 MW capacity of coal plants (under existing capacities) may undergo plant repurposing into other technologies as shown in Figure 26. Installed Capacity, MW 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Existing New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Minimum Reserve Margin New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 - 2023 i. New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind Peak Demand Figure 26. CES 1 - Luzon Power Demand and Supply Outlook To meet Luzon’s electricity demand of 48,014 MW by 2050 under CES 1, the simulation results have shown the need for a new build RE capacity of 66,806 MW on top of existing plants and committed projects. The RE capacity must increase sixteen times from its current capacity of 4,910 MW. The proposed additions include 28,230 MW Solar, 34,050 MW Wind, 4,130 MW Hydro, 300 MW geothermal and 96 MW biomass projects. The simulation has resulted also in an additional of 4,096 MW natural gas POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 73 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-074.pdf === plant facilities, nuclear technology at 3,900 MW and BESS technology of 11,846 MW to provide support and stability in the power system as indicated in Table 36. Table 36. CES 1 - Luzon New Build Capacities Particulars, in MW 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total New Coal New Natural Gas 1,580 2,516 4,096 New Oil New Nuclear 1,500 2,400 3,900 New Biomass 50 50 New WTE 12 34 46 New Geothermal 10 290 300 New Ground-Mounted 1,437 737 4,500 7,500 5,786 6,000 25,960 Solar New Floating solar 900 1,010 1,910 New BTM Solar 90 120 60 90 360 New Hydro + ROR 315 1,000 800 915 3,030 New Impounding Hydro New Pumped Hydro 1,100 1,100 New Wind 500 550 2,750 2,750 5,000 3,000 14,550 New OSW 2,000 3,300 8,700 5,500 19,500 New Battery 295 3,000 4,360 4,191 11,846 Note: Values presented herein are values of new build capacities every five-milestone year Depicted in Figure 27 is the breakdown of each technology's new build capacity and the respective milestone years of commercial operation. New Build Capacities, MW 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2025 2030 New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro 2035 2040 2045 New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind 2050 New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 27. CES 1 - Luzon New Build Capacities per Technology The new build capacities for this scenario resulted in a Luzon power generation mix with a diversified energy portfolio of natural gas plants share at 13%, nuclear technology at 10% and RE at 66% by 2050. Meanwhile, gross generation from coal power plants was significantly POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 74 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-075.pdf === reduced from 59% to 10% by 2050, as depicted in Figure 28 and Table 37. Generation Mix, GWh 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Coal Biomass Floating Solar Pumped Hydro NatGas WTE BTM Solar Wind Oil-Based Geothermal ROR Hydro OSW 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - Nuclear Solar Impounding Hydro Battery Figure 28. CES 1 - Luzon Power Generation Mix Table 37. CES 1 - Luzon Power Generation in GWh and Percent Share Plant Type 2023 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total BESS 49,643 18,044 1,575 0 14,935 1,615 0 4,490 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE 2025 2030 2035 Power Generation, in GWh 40,659 41,773 37,743 27,357 33,902 33,902 762 762 762 0 0 12,067 22,408 42,138 60,557 1,613 1,651 1,547 42 179 138 4,846 5,502 6,455 2040 2045 2050 38,025 33,995 762 12,100 96,507 1,533 138 8,691 35,996 35,661 762 12,067 153,758 1,440 136 8,561 30,663 40,023 762 31,375 201,940 1,429 132 8,468 1,842 6,654 10,303 18,789 31,723 41,383 50,693 0 55 1,308 0 69 1,363 143 68 1,428 1,697 159 2,744 3,305 327 6,944 3,141 407 10,301 3,374 591 14,156 3,275 3,293 3,682 3,189 3,002 2,871 2,766 1,488 1,550 4,055 3,541 3,380 3,228 3,186 864 2,978 7,461 14,632 20,974 0 0 7,665 7,665 16,490 84,199 91,186 118,575 145,032 181,390 0 268 419 917 4,812 Power Generation, in Percent (%) Share 59 45 35 26 21 21 30 29 23 19 2 1 1 1 0 8 7 18 25 36 42 53 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 31,358 50,931 238,244 10,694 42,411 74,734 304,763 16,274 15 15 0 5 65 1 0 10 13 0 10 66 0 0 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 75 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-076.pdf === Plant Type Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5 2 5 7 5 9 4 13 5 17 4 17 3 17 0 2 4 0 1 4 0 0 1 3 1 0 2 2 2 0 4 2 1 0 4 1 1 0 5 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 100 3 100 6 6 10 5 100 12 9 100 13 21 100 14 25 100 100 Visayas Grid The Visayas installed capacity requirements should increase by about nine times from 3,971 MW in 2022 to 36,168 MW in 2050 coming from the existing, committed, and new build capacities cities. The required BESS for grid stability should also increase from 35 MW to 4,960 MW by 2050 while a total of 103 MW capacity of coal plants may pursue repurposing by utilizing other technologies (Figure 29). Installed Capacity, MW 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Existing New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Minimum Reserve Margin New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 - 2023 ii. 2023 New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind Peak Demand Figure 29. CES 1 - Visayas Power Demand and Supply Outlook To meet Visayas’ electricity demand of 10,678 MW by 2050 under CES 1, the simulation results have shown the need for a new build RE capacity of 21,815 MW on top of existing plants and committed projects. The RE capacity must increase thirteen times from its current capacity of 1,914 MW. The proposed additions include 11,436 MW Solar, 9,539 MW Wind, 800 MW Hydro, and 40 MW geothermal projects. The simulation has resulted also in an additional of 8,720 MW natural gas plant facilities, 450 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 76 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-077.pdf === MW nuclear technology and BESS technology of 4,625 MW to provide support and stability as indicated in Table 38. Table 38. CES 1 - Visayas New Build Capacities Particulars, in MW 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total New Coal New Natural Gas 1,454 2,758 4,508 8,720 New Oil 450 450 New Nuclear New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal 30 10 40 New Ground800 1,500 2,500 3,986 1,500 10,286 Mounted Solar New Floating solar 600 400 1,000 New BTM Solar 0 50 100 150 New Hydro + ROR 150 150 300 New Impounding Hydro New Pumped 300 200 500 Hydro New Wind 800 1,539 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,200 9,539 New OSW New Battery 500 1,625 1,600 900 4,625 Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities As shown in Figure 30 is the breakdown of each technology's new build capacity and its milestone years of commercial operation. New Build Capacities, MW 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2025 New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal 2030 2035 2040 2045 New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar 2050 New Oil New WTE New Floating solar Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 30. CES 1 - Visayas New Build Capacities per Technology The new build capacities added for this scenario resulted in Visayas power generation mix diversified energy portfolio with RE plants accounting for 61% of the total share. Natural Gas plants were recorded at 28% while nuclear technology was at 4% of the total share. Coal plant POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 77 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-078.pdf === generation share in Visayas is projected to be reduced at a significant rate from 44% to 7% by 2050, as depicted in Figure 31 and Table 39. Generation Mix, GWh 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Coal NatGas Oil-Based Nuclear Biomass WTE Geothermal Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - Figure 31. CES 1 - Visayas Power Generation Mix Table 39. CES 1 - Visayas Power Generation in GWh and Percent Share Plant Type 2023 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total BESS 6,723 0 494 0 8,190 584 0 6,691 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE 2025 2030 2035 Power Generation, in GWh 8,374 8,377 8,053 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,620 11,035 20,875 30,926 709 789 612 0 0 0 7,125 9,114 9,090 2040 2045 2050 7,749 7,598 0 3,630 41,787 612 0 9,021 7,371 13,766 3 3,620 49,353 604 0 8,894 6,888 27,272 0 3,620 58,203 605 0 9,122 620 0 0 65 623 0 0 72 2,469 0 0 76 5,190 1,050 82 701 9,689 1,807 256 1,339 13,777 1,821 212 1,335 17,226 1,746 231 1,331 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 581 555 231 2,507 8,426 13,621 18,509 0 0 0 0 0 15,407 19,409 29,253 42,599 60,764 0 53 90 713 2,760 Power Generation, in Percent (%) Share 44 43 29 19 13 13 3 8 6 53 57 71 73 69 4 4 3 1 1 - 564 22,146 0 74,112 4,557 911 27,030 0 95,983 4,641 10 19 0 5 67 1 - 7 28 4 61 1 - POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 78 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-079.pdf === Plant Type Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total 2025 37 2030 31 2035 21 2040 15 2045 12 2050 10 4 3 8 12 16 19 18 0 0 0 2 0 2 3 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 1 - - - - - - - - - - 1 1 1 1 1 100 13 100 29 100 32 100 30 100 30 100 28 100 Mindanao Grid The Mindanao installed capacity requirements should increase by about four times from 4,542 MW in 2022 to 16,939 MW in 2050 coming from the existing, committed, and new build capacities cities. The required BESS to support grid should also increase from 49 MW to 3,637 MW by 2050 while a total of 232 MW capacity of coal plants (under existing capacities) may undergo plant repurposing into other technologies (Figure 32). Installed Capacity, MW 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Existing New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Minimum Reserve Margin New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 iii. 2023 43 New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind Peak Demand Figure 32. CES 1 - Mindanao Power Demand and Supply Outlook Under CES 1, the simulation results have shown the need for a new build RE capacity of 10,861 MW on top of existing plants and committed projects to meet Mindanao’s electricity demand of 9,791 MW by 2050. The RE capacity must increase nine times from its current capacity of 1,441 MW. These proposed additions include 9,005 MW Solar, 136 MW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 79 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-080.pdf === Wind, 1,600 MW Hydro, and 120 MW geothermal projects. The simulation has resulted also in an additional of 760 MW natural gas plant facilities, 450 MW nuclear technology and BESS technology of 3,308 MW to provide support and stability in the power system as indicated in Table 40. Table 40. CES 1 - Mindanao New Build Capacities Particulars, in MW 2030 2025 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total New Oil - - - - - 760 - 760 - New Nuclear - - 450 - - - 450 New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal New GroundMounted Solar New Floating solar New BTM Solar New Hydro + ROR New Impounding Hydro New Pumped Hydro - - - - 120 - 120 - 1,100 1,599 1,515 3,132 509 7,855 0 - - 717 100 300 283 14 1,175 125 37 - 1,000 150 1,600 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - New Coal New Natural Gas 136 136 New Wind New OSW New Battery 44 1,964 1,300 3,308 Note: Values presented herein are values of new build capacities every five-milestone year. Below is the breakdown which provides a clear reference for each technology's new build capacity and the respective milestone years of commercial operation (Figure 33). New Build Capacities, MW 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2025 2030 New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar 2035 2040 2045 New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR 2050 New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 33. CES 1 - Mindanao New Build Capacities per Technology POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 80 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-081.pdf === The new build capacities added for this scenario resulted in Mindanao diversified power generation mix with RE plants accounting for 64% of the total share. Natural Gas plants were recorded at 1% while nuclear technology at 8% of the total share. Meanwhile, coal plant generation were also greatly lowered as its share of 68% in 2023 was brought down to 26% by 2050, as depicted in Figure 34 and Table 41. Generation Mix, GWh 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Coal NatGas Oil-Based Nuclear Biomass WTE Geothermal Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - Figure 34. CES 1 - Mindanao Power Generation Mix Table 41. CES 1 - Mindanao Power Generation in GWh and Percent Share Plant Type 2023 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total BESS 10,055 0 486 0 4,243 122 0 713 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE 2025 2030 2035 Power Generation, in GWh 12,638 13,928 13,285 0 0 0 118 118 118 0 0 3,620 4,442 6,983 12,230 181 193 165 0 0 0 717 729 702 2040 2045 2050 12,678 0 118 3,630 20,610 166 0 688 12,001 0 103 3,620 26,764 155 0 1,635 11,089 570 118 3,620 27,761 162 0 1,664 128 124 2,093 4,916 7,464 12,284 13,141 0 0 2,040 0 0 2,175 0 0 2,307 1,243 159 3,577 1,769 178 8,527 1,683 168 9,026 1,746 244 9,008 1,239 1,246 1,270 1,100 1,468 1,484 1,433 0 0 0 0 0 389 368 350 0 0 0 0 17,197 21,028 29,253 37,036 51 85 168 207 Power Generation, in Percent (%) Share 73 66 45 34 1 1 0 0 12 10 26 33 42 56 0 329 0 42,489 2,567 0 362 0 43,158 3,635 28 0 9 63 26 1 0 8 64 0 0 0 14,784 3 68 3 29 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 81 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-082.pdf === Plant Type 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total 1 5 1 4 1 3 1 2 0 2 0 4 0 4 1 1 10 17 20 29 30 14 13 11 4 1 12 5 0 23 4 0 21 4 1 21 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 100 100 2 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 c) Clean Energy Scenario 2 (CES 2) – High Offshore Wind (High Offshore Wind Technology + Nuclear Technology + Coal Repurposing) Luzon Grid Under the CES 2, the Luzon installed capacity requirements should increase by about six times from 19,746 MW in 2022 to 120,824 MW in 2050 coming from the existing, committed, and new build capacities. The required BESS should also increase from 72 MW to 15,783 MW by 2050 while a total of 4,059 MW capacity of coal plants (under existing capacity) may opt to undergo plant repurposing (Figure 35). Installed Capacity, MW 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Existing New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Minimum Reserve Margin New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 - 2023 i. New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind Peak Demand Figure 35. CES 2 - Luzon Power Demand and Supply Outlook To meet Luzon’s electricity demand of 48,014 MW by 2050 under CES 2, the simulation results have emphasized the need for new build RE capacity of 85,070 MW on top of existing plants and committed projects. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 82 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-083.pdf === The RE capacity must increase nineteen times from its current capacity of 4,910 MW. These proposed additions include 23,877 MW Solar, 57,087 MW Wind, 3,170 MW Hydro, 300 MW geothermal and 96 MW biomass projects. Likewise, the simulation has resulted an additional of 6,216 MW natural gas plant facilities, nuclear technology at 3,900 MW and BESS technology of 14,211 MW to provide support and stability in the power system due to the influx of RE technologies as indicated in Table 42. Table 42. CES 2 - Luzon New Build Capacities Particulars, in MW 2025 New Coal New Natural Gas New Oil 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total - - - 1,540 - 1,840 - 2,836 - 6,216 - - - 1,500 - - 2,400 3,900 50 12 - 34 - - - 200 100 50 46 300 1,437 1,500 3,267 2,023 7,500 6,000 21,727 - 1,100 370 - 300 30 640 - 1,200 120 800 - 410 90 800 - 1,910 240 2,610 1,100 New Nuclear New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal New Ground-Mounted Solar New Floating solar New BTM Solar New Hydro + ROR New Impounding Hydro New Pumped Hydro 2030 1,000 1,600 2,200 1,237 2,750 2,200 10,987 New Wind New OSW 4,000 4,000 10,000 8,000 20,100 46,100 New Battery 1,163 2,567 4,985 5,496 14,211 Note: Values presented herein are values of new build capacities every five-milestone year Figure 36 shows the breakdown of each technology's new build capacity, and the respective year of commercial operation arranged in every five-milestone year. New Build Capacities, MW 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 2025 2030 New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery 2035 2040 2045 New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind 2050 New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 36. CES 2 - Luzon New Build Capacities per Technology POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 83 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-084.pdf === The new build capacities for this scenario resulted in a Luzon power diversified generation mix of natural gas plants share at 8%, nuclear technology at 9% and RE at 74% by 2050. Meanwhile, gross generation from coal power plants was significantly reduced from its share at 59% in 2023 down to 8% by 2050, as depicted in Figure 37 and Table 43. Generation Mix, GWh 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Coal Biomass Floating Solar Pumped Hydro NatGas WTE BTM Solar Wind Oil-Based Geothermal ROR Hydro OSW 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - Nuclear Solar Impounding Hydro Battery Figure 37. CES 2 - Luzon Power Generation Mix Table 43. CES 2 - Luzon Power Generation in GWh and Percent Share Plant Type 2023 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total BESS 49,643 18,044 1,575 0 14,935 1,615 0 4,490 1,842 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass 59 21 2 18 2 2025 2030 2035 Power Generation, in GWh 40,402 31,961 27,243 24,832 30,773 30,773 762 762 762 0 0 12,067 23,803 55,354 79,270 1,621 1,647 1,174 42 179 138 4,856 5,488 5,626 6,654 11,467 16,960 2040 2045 2050 33,784 32,621 761 12,100 118,153 1,535 138 6,173 21,631 27,775 36,923 829 12,067 181,253 1,341 136 7,524 34,743 27,243 29,230 762 31,375 255,483 1,174 132 6,391 33,781 0 55 1,308 3,275 0 68 1,367 3,284 143 67 1,425 3,679 127 64 2,398 2,737 653 115 5,637 3,003 2,713 308 8,990 2,723 2,425 341 10,391 1,754 1,488 1,538 4,032 3,258 3,422 3,109 2,810 4,374 11,898 16,207 19,840 0 15,330 30,581 56,004 89,800 118,851 150,115 197,419 248 441 4,123 5,397 Power Generation, in Percent (%) Share 45 27 18 17 28 26 20 17 1 1 1 0 8 6 27 47 53 60 2 1 1 1 25,010 94,655 258,847 11,128 24,623 171,661 344,093 30,444 11 14 0 5 70 1 8 8 0 9 74 0 864 0 84,199 0 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 84 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-085.pdf === 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 3 0 3 0 2 2 7 10 11 11 13 10 0 2 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 1 0 3 1 0 3 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 100 5 100 10 13 100 11 20 100 10 28 100 10 37 100 7 50 100 Visayas Grid Under this scenario, the Visayas installed capacity requirements is needed to increase by about six times from 3,971 MW in 2022 to 24,351 MW in 2050 coming from the existing, committed, and new build capacities. The BESS requirement should also increase from 35 MW to 5,857 MW by 2050 while a total of 512.7 MW capacity of coal plants (under existing capacity) may opt to undergo plant repurposing (Figure 38). Installed Capacity, MW 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Existing New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Minimum Reserve Margin New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 - 2023 ii. Plant Type WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind Peak Demand Figure 38. CES 2 - Visayas Power Demand and Supply Outlook To meet Visayas’ electricity demand of 10,678 MW by 2050 under CES 2, the simulation results have shown the need for a new build RE capacity of 10,440 MW on top of existing plants and committed projects. The RE capacity must increase seven times from its current capacity of 1,914 MW. These proposed additions include 3,250 MW Solar, 6,550 MW Wind, 600 MW Hydro, and 40 MW geothermal projects. The simulation has resulted also in an additional of 8,688 MW natural gas plant facilities, 450 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 85 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-086.pdf === MW nuclear technology and BESS technology of 5,522 MW to provide support and stability in the power system as indicated in Table 44. Table 44. CES 2 - Visayas New Build Capacities Particulars, in MW 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total New Coal New Natural Gas 1,820 3,614 3,254 8,688 New Oil 450 450 New Nuclear New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal 10 30 40 New Ground399 1,500 201 2,100 Mounted Solar New Floating solar 200 600 200 1,000 New BTM Solar 0 100 50 150 New Hydro + ROR 100 200 300 New Impounding Hydro New Pumped 300 300 Hydro New Wind 800 1,750 2,550 New OSW 3,000 1,000 4,000 New Battery 534 271 2,000 2,717 5,522 Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 39 depicts the structured breakdown for each technology's new build capacity and the respective milestone years of commercial operation. New Build Capacities, MW 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2025 2030 New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery 2035 2040 2045 New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind 2050 New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 39. CES 2 - Visayas New Build Capacities per Technology The new build capacities added for this scenario resulted in Visayas diversified power generation mix with RE plants accounting for 62% of the total share. Natural Gas plants were recorded at 26% while nuclear POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 86 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-087.pdf === technologies at 5% of the total share. The share of Coal plant generation was also significantly reduced from 44% in 2023 to 7% by 2050, as depicted in Figure 40 and Table 45. Generation Mix, GWh 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Coal NatGas Oil-Based Nuclear Biomass WTE Geothermal Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - Figure 40. CES 2 - Visayas Power Generation Mix Table 45. CES 2 - Visayas Power Generation in GWh and Percent Share Plant Type Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total BESS Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar 2023 2040 2045 2050 5,502 4,072 9 3,630 37,271 612 0 8,915 5,095 5,240 16,163 3 3,620 37,006 604 0 9,018 4,325 4,586 17,338 0 3,620 41,949 605 0 9,137 4,637 1,446 171 1,340 0 1,821 212 1,334 0 1,746 231 1,329 0 0 0 0 553 568 231 2,507 9,030 8,692 8,410 0 0 0 11,498 10,716 15,407 19,414 27,966 43,733 50,485 0 35 101 707 807 Power Generation, in Percent (%) Share 44 43 24 11 11 8 3 0 8 7 53 57 76 81 74 4 4 3 1 1 43 37 33 20 18 549 7,812 11,331 62,033 2,729 525 8,407 15,330 67,493 1,833 8 26 0 6 60 1 15 7 26 5 62 1 14 7 7 6,723 0 494 0 8,190 584 0 6,691 620 2025 2030 2035 Power Generation, in GWh 8,374 6,766 4,688 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,620 11,040 21,200 35,426 710 788 612 0 0 0 7,127 9,099 8,699 622 1,888 4,540 0 0 65 0 4 0 0 74 0 3 318 0 76 0 7 350 0 482 0 10 10 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 87 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-088.pdf === 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 3 0 3 3 0 2 3 0 2 - - - - - - - 1 100 13 100 32 100 1 20 26 100 1 17 21 100 1 13 18 100 1 12 23 100 Mindanao Grid Under the CES 2, the Mindanao installed capacity requirement should increase by about two times from 4,542 MW in 2022 to 11,214 MW in 2050 coming from the existing, committed, and new build capacities cities. The required BESS to support grid stability should also increase from 49 MW to 3,022 MW by 2050 while a total of 232 MW capacity of coal plants (under existing capacities) may opt for the repurposing (Figure 41). Installed Capacity, MW 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Existing New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Minimum Reserve Margin New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 - 2023 iii. Plant Type Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind Peak Demand Figure 41. CES 2 - Mindanao Power Demand and Supply Outlook To meet Mindanao’s electricity demand of 9,791 MW by 2050 under the CES 2, the simulation results have emphasized the need for a new build RE capacity of 4,356 MW on top of existing plants and committed projects. The RE capacity must increase four times from its current capacity of 1,441 MW. These proposed additions include 2,500 MW Solar, 136 MW Wind, 1,600 MW Hydro, and 120 MW geothermal projects. The simulation has resulted also in an additional of 1,540 MW natural gas plant facilities, 450 MW of nuclear technology, and BESS technology of 2,693 MW to provide support and stability in the power system as indicated in Table 46. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 88 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-089.pdf === Table 46. CES 2 - Mindanao New Build Capacities Particulars, in MW 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total New Oil - - - 20 - 80 - 1,440 - 1,540 - New Nuclear - - 450 - - - 450 New Biomass New WTE New Geothermal New GroundMounted Solar New Floating solar New BTM Solar New Hydro + ROR New Impounding Hydro New Pumped Hydro - - - - - - - - 1,100 250 - 120 - - 120 1,350 0 - 106 - 300 - 600 50 975 - 294 100 325 - - 1,000 150 1,600 - - - - - - - - New Coal New Natural Gas 136 136 New Wind New OSW 224 620 1,849 2,693 New Battery Note: Values presented herein are values of new build capacities every five-milestone year. Below is the structured breakdown which provides a clear reference for each technology's new build capacity and the respective milestone years of commercial operation. New Build Capacities, MW 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2025 2030 New Coal New Nuclear New Geothermal New BTM Solar New Pumped Hydro New Battery 2035 2040 New Natural Gas New Biomass New Ground-Mounted Solar New Hydro + ROR New Wind 2045 2050 New Oil New WTE New Floating solar New Impounding Hydro New OSW Note: Values presented in this graph are per technology, per year of entry of new build capacities Figure 42. CES 2 - Mindanao New Build Capacities per Technology The new build capacities added for this scenario resulted in Mindanao diversified power generation mix of RE plants accounting for 51% of the total share. Natural Gas plants were recorded at 7% while nuclear technology at 11% of the total share. Meanwhile, the coal generation share was significantly reduced to almost half from 68% in 2023 to 31% by 2050, as depicted in Figure 43 and Table 47. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 89 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-090.pdf === Generation Mix, GWh 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Coal NatGas Oil-Based Nuclear Biomass WTE Geothermal Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Battery 2050 2049 2048 2047 2046 2045 2044 2043 2042 2041 2040 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 - Figure 43. CES 2 - Mindanao Power Generation Mix Table 47. CES 2 - Mindanao Power Generation in GWh and Percent Share Plant Type 2023 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total BESS 10,055 0 486 0 4,243 122 0 713 Coal Natural Gas Oil-based Nuclear RE Biomass WTE Geothermal GroundMounted Solar Floating Solar BTM Solar ROR Hydro 2040 2045 2050 12,678 48 118 3,630 14,426 168 0 684 12,001 232 118 3,620 17,261 155 0 1,657 10,223 2,202 118 3,620 17,123 162 0 1,678 2,685 1,276 85 7,673 2,613 1,821 245 9,000 2,587 1,746 244 8,936 1,239 1,257 1,263 971 1,494 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 389 375 363 0 0 0 0 0 14,784 18,654 21,175 22,065 30,899 3 33 88 87 280 Power Generation, in Percent (%) Share 68 75 66 46 41 0 3 1 1 0 0 16 12 29 24 34 37 47 1 1 1 1 1 5 4 3 3 2 1,433 0 337 0 33,232 965 1,407 0 362 0 33,286 878 36 1 0 11 52 0 5 31 7 0 11 51 0 5 128 0 0 2,040 2025 2030 2035 Power Generation, in GWh 14,077 13,928 10,223 0 0 0 107 118 67 0 0 3,620 4,470 7,130 8,154 182 192 165 0 0 0 718 727 649 123 0 0 2,190 2,093 168 0 2,296 2,672 186 0 3,136 1 1 10 12 9 8 8 14 0 12 1 0 11 1 0 14 4 0 25 5 1 27 5 1 27 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 90 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-091.pdf === Plant Type Impounding Hydro Pumped Hydro Wind OSW Total 5. 2023 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 100 100 2 100 2 100 1 100 1 100 1 100 Committed and Indicative Power Projects Update The DOE, through the EPIMB, publishes on the website the monthly list of committed33 and indicative34 power projects in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao grids using the information provided by project developers on its monthly accomplishment report (MAR) submission. Given the total number of additional capacities required by the Philippines by 2050 and considering the various scenarios discussed in the preceding section, the consolidated information provides a comprehensive overview of the current line-up of power projects that are essential to the development of the generation sector, aimed to meet the increasing demand for electricity of the country. Based on the DOE’s posting35 as of 31 May 2023 (see Table 48), a total of 9,557 MW committed power projects and an additional 2,084 MW BESS projects are expected to be operational from 2023 to 2027, including those with commercial operation dates that are yet to be determined by the developers. With the coal moratorium advisory36 enforced by the DOE effective since 27 October 2020, the number of combined committed and indicative coal power projects has dropped by 72.3% from 11,289 MW in October 2020 to 3,125 MW in May 2023. The coal share is equivalent to 24.1% (2,305 MW) of the total share. On the other hand, the RE contribution is currently at 38.4% (3,666 MW), natural gas at 36.6% (3,500 MW), and oil-fired power plants accounted for the remaining 0.9% (87MW) of the list. Of these committed power projects, 8,353 MW capacity was included in the Power Outlook scenarios. 33 Committed Projects refers to projects that have already secured its firm financial closing, already in construction stage, or Green Energy Auction (GEA) - awarded projects. 34 Indicative Projects refers to projects that are in the pre-development stage, secured its Clearance to Undertake System Impact Study with the NGCP and are consistently submitting its Monthly Accomplishment Report to the DOE 35 DOE’s Posting of the List of Private Sector Initiated Power Projects Retrieved through: https://www.doe.gov.ph/private-sector-initiated-power-projects 36 Coal Moratorium Advisory Retrieved through: https://www.doe.gov.ph/announcements/advisory-moratorium-endorsements-greenfield-coalfired-power-projects-line-improving POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 91 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-092.pdf === 4,000.00 3,500.00 Installed Capacity, in MW 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 TBD COAL OIL-BASED NATURAL GAS GEOTHERMAL HYDROPOWER BIOMASS SOLAR WIND ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM Figure 44. Committed Power Projects as of May 2023 Table 48. Target Commercial Operation of Committed Power Projects as of May 2023 Plant Type 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 TBD TOTAL COAL 300 300 850 585 270 - OIL-BASED 11 48 28 - - - 87 - 1,313 - - 1,100 1,088 3,500 3,666 NATURAL GAS RENEWABLE ENERGY 2,305 1,157 279 1,942 266 22 - BIOMASS 74 4 5 - - - 84 GEOTHERMAL 46 32 10 10 22 - 120 SOLAR 823 177 1,732 186 - - 2,918 HYDROPOWER 104 41 127 - - - 271 WIND 110 25 68 70 - - 273 TOTAL 1,468 1,939 2,820 851 1,392 1,088 9,557 ESS 780 784 520 - - - 2,084 BATTERY ESS 780 784 520 - - - 2,084 TBD – To be determined. Meanwhile, the indicative projects are projected to provide 57,258 MW and 1,930 MW BESS additional capacity for the country from 2023 to 2037, including those with no definite target commercial operation dates. About 1.4% (820 MW) will come from the coal power projects while natural gas projects are expected to contribute 18.9% (10,800 MW) and oil-based projects at 0.3% (155 MW) of the total share. In pursuit of cleaner fuel in the energy mix, the RE projects will have the highest contribution at 79.4% (45,483MW), as depicted in Table 49. Among the RE technologies, wind technology is seen to dominate the indicative list with 55.0% POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 92 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-093.pdf === (31,497MW), followed by hydroelectric at 13.6% (7,812MW), solar at 9.9% (5,679MW), geothermal at 0.7% (421MW) and biomass at 0.1% (74MW). 16,000.00 Installed Capacity, in MW 14,000.00 12,000.00 10,000.00 8,000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 2,000.00 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2037 TBD COAL OIL-BASED NATURAL GAS GEOTHERMAL HYDROPOWER BIOMASS SOLAR WIND ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM Figure 45. Indicative Power Projects as of May 2023 Table 49. Target Commercial Operation of Indicative Power Projects as of May 2023 Plant Type 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 155 3,643 36 12 2,876 719 3,798 550 550 1,864 60 165 1,162 476 1,864 471 471 1,200 2,948 377 50 540 1,982 4,148 300 300 120 1,650 5,246 105 2,440 366 2,335 7,016 348 348 2,510 1,224 50 993 181 3,734 - 1,800 8,901 847 8,054 10,701 - 1,100 12,480 40 1,340 11,100 13,580 - 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2037 TBD TOTAL 5,323 250 5,073 5,323 - 1,668 40 900 728 1,668 - 700 2,540 50 50 3,290 222 222 820 155 10,800 45,483 421 7,812 74 5,679 31,497 57,258 1,930 1,930 COAL OIL-BASED NATURAL GAS RENEWABLE ENERGY GEOTHERMAL HYDROPOWER BIOMASS SOLAR WIND TOTAL ESS BATTERY ESS Plant Type 567 12 555 567 40 40 COAL OIL-BASED NATURAL GAS RENEWABLE ENERGY GEOTHERMAL HYDROPOWER BIOMASS SOLAR WIND TOTAL ESS BATTERY ESS 900 900 900 - 130 130 130 - 40 40 40 - 500 500 500 - TBD – To be determined. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 93 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-094.pdf === 6. Committed Power Projects and Associated Transmission Projects Tables 50 to 52 provide a comprehensive listing of the major committed power plants in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. These tables also include details about the associated transmission projects that have been planned to facilitate the integration of these power projects into the respective regions. 6.1 Luzon Table 50. Luzon Committed Power Projects and Associated Transmission Projects Based on DOE List of Private Sector-Initiated Power Projects as of May 2023 Proposed Major Power Projects Capacity (MW) Commercial Operation 1,200 Unit 1–Aug 2023 Unit 2–Nov 2023 Unit 3–Jan 2024 Unit 4–May 2024 Unit 5–Dec 2025 Unit 6–Mar 2026 Unit 7–Jun 2026 Unit 8–Sept 2026 Based on Transmission Development Plan 2023-2040 Associated Estimated Connection Transmission Time of Point Project Completion Coal Mariveles Coal-Fired Power Plant Phase I and 2 MPPL Supercritical Pulverized Coal Thermal* Oil-Based SPC – Tarlac Bunker Fired Power Plant* Natural Gas EERI Batangas Combined Cycle Power Plant Phase 1 and 2 BCEI Natural Gas-Fired Power Plant EWC CCGT Power Plant* Geothermal Tiwi Binary Geothermal Project Palayan Binary Power Plant Tanawon Geothermal Project Maibarara 3 Geothermal Power Project Bacman 4 Botong Rangas Geothermal Project Kayabon Geothermal Project Kalinga Geothermal Power Project - Phase 1 Kalinga Geothermal Power Project - Phase 2 700 11.04 1,312.5 Unit 1&2–Sept 2024 Unit 3–Dec 2024 Sept 2023 Unit 1&2–Sept 2024 Unit 3–Dec 2024 Mariveles (Alas-asin) 500 kV SS Mariveles– Hermosa 500 kV TL Balsik (Hermosa)– San Jose 500 kV TL Jan 2024 Bolo 500 kV Substation Western 500 kV BackboneStage 2 Palauig 500 kV Substation Dec 2025 Dec 2027 TARELCO II Facility None N/A Ilijan 500 kV Switchyard None N/A Pinamucan 500kV Substation Pagbilao 230 kV Substation Pinamucan 500 kV Substation Pagbilao 500 kV Substation 1,100 Jan 2027 Jun 2024 650 TBD 17 Oct 2023 Tiwi-C 69 kV SS None N/A 29 Sept 2023 Bacman 230 kV SS None N/A 20 Oct 2024 Bacman 230 kV SS (through Palayan 230 kV Switchyard) - N/A 20 Dec 2025 TBD TBD TBD 20 Dec 2026 TBD TBD TBD 30 Dec 2026 TBD TBD TBD 40 Dec 2030 TBD TBD TBD 40 Dec 2032 TBD TBD TBD Mar 2022 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 94 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-095.pdf === Based on DOE List of Private Sector-Initiated Power Projects as of May 2023 Proposed Major Power Projects Based on Transmission Development Plan 2023-2040 Associated Estimated Connection Transmission Time of Point Project Completion Capacity (MW) Commercial Operation 40 Dec 2034 TBD TBD TBD 50 Dec 2025 TBD TBD TBD 105 Dec 2027 TBD TBD TBD Biyao HPP 0.8 Dec 2023 None N/A Laguio Malaki 1 HPP 1.6 Aug 2023 None N/A Matuno 2 HEPP 8 Jun 2023 None N/A Colasi HPP 1 Jul 2023 None N/A Mariveles HPP 0.6 Aug 2023 None N/A Ibulao HPP 4.500 Jul 2023 None N/A Labayat River (Upper Cascade) HPP 3 Jun 2023 None N/A Man-Asok HPP 3 Nov 2021 None N/A Lalawinan Mini-Hydro PP 3 Dec 2024 None N/A Tubao HPP 1.5 Dec 2025 None N/A Tibag HPP 4.40 Jun 2023 None N/A Rangas HPP 1.5 Dec 2025 None N/A Dupinga HPP 3 Jul 2023 None N/A Kapangan HPP Daet HPP 60 5 Dec 2025 Dec 2025 None None N/A N/A Ibulao I HPP 6 Jun 2024 None N/A Tignoan River (Upper Cascade) HPP 1.5 Dec 2025 None N/A Sablan 1 HPP 20 Nov 2025 None N/A Asin-Hungduan HPP 9.8 Jun 2024 TBD TBD Likud 2 HPP 0.56 Dec 2024 None N/A Dipalo HPP 4.15 Dec 2025 IFELCO Facility Nagsaag-Umingan 69 kV TL None N/A 2.4 MW Biogas PPP 2.4 Aug 2023 PELCO III Facility None N/A 1.2 MW Biogas PPP Isabela Rice huskFired Biomass PPP Solar Concepcion 1 SPP Phase 3 Concepcion 1 SPP Phase 4 1.2 Jan 2024 MERALCO Facility None N/A 5 Aug 2023 ISELCO II Facility None N/A 12 Jun 2023 None N/A 30 Aug 2023 None N/A Bulacan 2 SPP 17.603 Dec 2024 None N/A Ilocos Norte SPP 87.594 Feb 2023 None N/A Kalinga Geothermal Power Project - Phase 3 Mt. Malinao Geothermal Project Labo Geothermal Power Project Hydro KAELCO Facility MERALCO Facility Bayombong– Lagawe 69 kV TL CANORECO Facility PENELCO Facility Bayombong– Lagawe 69 kV TL Lumban– FAMYInfanta 69 kV TL BENECO Facility Lumban– FAMYInfanta69 kV TL LUELCO Facility Lumban– FAMYInfanta69 kV TransmissionLine CASURECO IV Facility NEECO II A2 Facility Bacnotan 69 kV SS CANORECO Facility Bayombong– Lagawe 69 kV TL Lumban– FAMYInfanta 69 kV TL La Trinidad–Calot 69 kV TL TBD Biomass Concepcion 69 kV SS Concepcion 69 kV SS San Rafael 69 kVSS Laoag 115 kV SS POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 95 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-096.pdf === Based on DOE List of Private Sector-Initiated Power Projects as of May 2023 Proposed Major Power Projects Based on Transmission Development Plan 2023-2040 Associated Estimated Connection Transmission Time of Point Project Completion Bolo-Balaoan Bolo 230 kV SS Mar 2028 500 kV TL Naga-Lagonoy None N/A 69kV TL Nagsaag–Umingan Nagsaag–Tumana Jun 2024 69 kV TL 69 kV TL Concepcion Marilao–Mexico Aug 2032 230 kV SS 230 kV Tl Upgrading Capacity (MW) Commercial Operation Cayanga-Bugallon SPP* 74.800 Aug 2023 PAVI Green Naga SPP 40.400 Dec 2024 Talugtug SPP 99.980 Mar 2025 200 Dec 2025 280 Dec 2025 Tayabas SPP 450 Dec 2025 Arayat-Mexico SPP Phase 2 30.933 Mar 2023 Pinugay SPP 67.500 Mar 2023 Raslag III SPP 13.600 Mar 2023 Currimao SPP 48.118 Jun 2023 Lal-lo Hybrid SPP 82.448 Sep 2023 92.799 Dec 2024 Magalang 230 kV SS Magalang 230 kV SS Dec 2027 92.799 Jun 2025 Magalang 230 kV SS Magalang 230 kV SS Dec 2027 92.799 Dec 2025 Magalang 230 kV SS Magalang 230 kV SS Dec 2027 96.236 Dec 2025 Magalang 230 kV SS Magalang 230 kV SS Dec 2027 92.799 Jun 2026 Magalang 230 kV SS Magalang 230 kV SS Dec 2027 92.799 Dec 2026 Magalang 230 kV SS Magalang 230 kV SS Dec 2027 70.000 Dec 2025 Laoag 115 kV SS None N/A Concepcion Tarlac 2 SPP Santa Rosa Nueva Ecija 2 SPP Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase I) Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase 2) Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase 3) Sapang Balen Solar 1 Power Project Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase 4) Sapang Balen Solar 2 Power Project (Phase 5) Wind Caparispisan II Wind Power Project Calatagan Wind Power Project TBD TBD Tayabas Taguig-Silang 230 kV SS 500 kV TL Mexico–Clark None 69 kV TL 2 Tap connection along the MERALCOowned Dolores– Teresa–Malaya None 115kV Sub-TL which is radially connected to NGCP’s Taytay SS Mexico-Clark Clark-Mabiga 69 kV TL 1 69 kV TL Line Currimao 115 kV SS Lal-lo (Magapit) Nagsaag–Santiago 69 kV SS 500 kV TL Tuy 500/230 kV SS Stage 1 Bolo–Balaoan Balaoi and Caunayan Laoag 500 kV TL 160.000 Dec 2025 Wind Power Project 115 kV SS Balaoan–Laoag 500 kV TL Source: Transmission Development Plan (TDP), 2023-2040 – not yet approved by the DOE 30.000 Dec 2025 Tuy 230 kV SS TBD Feb 2031 N/A N/A Feb 2025 Oct 2031 Dec 2024 Mar 2028 Note: The commissioning year for each power plant is still subject to update TBD – To be determined N/A – Not applicable *With System Impact Study (SIS) POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 96 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-097.pdf === 6.2 Visayas Table 51. Visayas Committed Power Plants and Associated Transmission Projects Based on DOE List of Private Sector-Initiated Power Projects as of May 2023 Proposed Major Power Project Based on Transmission Development Plan 2023-2040 Commercial Operation Connection Point Associated Transmission Project Estimated Time of Completion 135 Jun 2026 Direct connection to Concepcion Substation Eastern Panay Transmission Line Project Completed 11.174 Jul 2023 Calbayog 69 kV SS Visayas SS Upgrading Project 2 Dec 2025 5.500 Sept 2024 None N/A 2.000 Sept 2024 None N/A 1.000 Sept 2024 None N/A CNP 230 kV Backbone Stage 3 Mar 2024 Capacity (MW) Coal Palm Concepcion Coal-Fired Power Project* Oil 11.174 MW Calbayog Bunker C-Fired Diesel Power Plant Sulzer Diesel Power Plant Caterpillar Diesel Power Plant Cummins Diesel Power Plant Biomass 6 MW Biomass Power Plant Project Central Azucarera de San Antonio Geothermal Biliran Geothermal Plant Project Northern Negros Geothermal Project Mahanagdong Geothermal Brine Optimization Plant Dauin Geothermal Project Hydro Timbaban Igbulo (Bais) Hydroelectric PowerProject Solar Kananga-Ormoc Solar Power Project* Lapu-lapu 69 kV SS Lapu-lapu 69 kV SS Lapu-lapu 69 kV SS 6.000 Dec 2023 Tap connection along BayawanTadlong 69 kV line 8.000 Dec 2023 Dingle 69 kV SS - - 50 Unit 1 (2 MW): Dec 2023 Unit 2 (6 MW): Sept 2024 Unit 3 (10 MW): Dec 2025 Unit 4 (10 MW): Dec 2026 Unit 5 (22 MW): Dec 2027 Cut-in along LemonTapNaval 69 kV TL Tabango–Biliran 69 kVTransmission Line Project June 2027 5.60 Sep 2024 Bacolod 138 kV SS CNP 230 kV Backbone Stage 3 Mar 2024 36.000 Dec 2024 TBD TBD TBD 40.000 Dec 2025 TBD TBD TBD Aug 2023 Direct Connection to Nabas Substation 18.0 5.1 300.00 Dec 2023 Dec 2025 Panitan–Nabas 138 KV TL 2Project May 2021 Nabas–Caticlan– Boracay TL Project Cut-in along Sta. BarbaraSan Jose 69kV TL Tigbauan 138 kV Substation Project Sept 2027 Ormoc 230 kV Cebu–Leyte 230 kV Interconnection L3&4 Project Dec 2031 Wind POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 97 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-098.pdf === Based on DOE List of Private Sector-Initiated Power Projects as of May 2023 Proposed Major Power Project Capacity (MW) Commercial Operation 13.2MW Nabas-2 Wind Power 13.200 May 2025 Project Source: TDP 2023-2040 – not yet approved by DOE Based on Transmission Development Plan 2023-2040 Connection Point Associated Transmission Project Estimated Time of Completion Through Nabas – Caticlan 69 kV line CNP 230 kV Backbone Stage 3 Mar 2024 Note: The commissioning year for each power plant is still subject to update TBD – To be determined N/A – Not applicable *With SIS 6.3 Mindanao Table 52. Mindanao Committed Power Plants and Associated Transmission Projects Based on DOE List of Private Sector-Initiated Power Projects as of May 2023 Proposed Major Capacity Commercial Power Project (MW) Operation Coal Based on Transmission Development Plan 2023-2040 Connection Associated Estimated Time of Point Transmission Project Completion FDC‐MPC CFB Coal‐ Fired Power Plant* 270 March 2027 Villanueva Substation Villanueva– Kinamlutan 230 kV TL Jan 2027 Maladugao (Upper Cascade) HPP 8.4 Jan 2025 Maramag Substation No Transmission Reinforcement Required N/A Bubunawan HPP 23 Dec 2025 No SIS yet Liangan HPP* 11.9 Aug 2023 Agus 6 Substation Sipangpang HPP Maramag HPP Sipangpang HPP 1.800 2.040 1.8 May 2023 Jun 2023 May 2023 Siguil HPP 14.5 Jun 2023 Tagpangi HPP Osmeña HPP Gakaon HPP Titunod HPP 1.7 1 2.23 3.6 Dec 2023 Dec 2023 Dec 2024 Dec 2024 Malitbog HPP 3.7 Nov 2025 Silo-O HPP 3.7 Nov 2025 Mat-I 1 HPP 4.85 Nov 2025 Clarin HPP 6.9 Nov 2025 Hydro Biomass 10 MW Biomass 3.400 Nov 2023 Cogeneration Plant 10 MW Biomass Cogeneration 10.000 Dec 2023 Plant 6 MW Biomass Power Plant 6.000 Sep 2023 Project Source: TDP 2023-2040 – Not yet approved by DOE TBD TBD TBD SOCOTECO 2’s proposed Tinoto Line 3 TBD TBD TBD TBD Villanueva 69 kV SS Villanueva 69 kV SS Jasaan – Balingasag 69 kV Line Villanueva 230 kV SS No Transmission Reinforcement Required TBD TBD TBD N/A TBD TBD TBD - - TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD - - - - - - - - TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 98 === pdp-2023-2050-ch2-page-099.pdf === Note: The commissioning year for each power plant is still subject to update TBD – To be determined N/A – Not applicable *With SIS POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2023-2050 99