PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I — Section D (Energy Demand and Supply Outlook)

PDF pages: 72–95 (internal doc pages 63–86) Chapter heading: Chapter II — Energy Demand and Supply Outlook

Key Takeaways

REF TFEC doubles by 2050: 35.9 MTOE → 90.6 MTOE (+3.4%/yr); industry is fastest-growing sector (+4.94%/yr).
Electricity is the structural winner: Share rises from 21.9% to 38.7% of TFEC by 2050 across all sectors.
LNG is the critical bridge fuel: Natural gas grows from 2.6 to 24.8 MTOE TPES (+8.37%/yr) as Malampaya depletes; 7 LNG projects (22 MTPA) planned.
Coal generation collapses in share, not volume: 59.6% → 14.1% of power mix; absolute output barely changes (66.4 → 63.8 TWh).
Natural gas becomes the largest power source by 2050 under REF: 35.0% (158.8 TWh), replacing coal as baseload.
Self-sufficiency worsens even under REF: 49.4% → 38.9% by 2050; net imports nearly triple to 85.8 MTOE.
BESS requirement reaches 1,021 GWh (REF) / 22 GW (CES-1) by 2050 — essential for VRE integration.
Solar dominates new build: 56.5 GW installed by 2050 (37.4% of capacity); wind at 32.3 GW (21.4%).
GHG doubles under REF: 135.7 → 270.1 MtCO₂e; gas GHG grows fastest (+8.4%/yr due to LNG scale-up).
CES saves 7.7 MTOE TFEC and 13.2 MTOE TPES vs REF by 2050 through demand-side efficiency and supply substitution (OSW + nuclear displaces LNG).
100% household electrification target: 2026 under PEP (vs PDP 2023-2028 target of ~95.5%).
PEP beats all PDP 2023-2028 SDG Tier 1 energy indicators under both REF and CES.

Sub-section	Content
I. Methodology	Simple E2, PLEXOS, LEAP models; GDP/price assumptions; scenario building table
II. Reference Scenario — TFEC	By sector (Tables 9–13, 18); by fuel (Table 19); 2022–2028 and 2022–2050
II. Reference Scenario — TPES	By fuel (Tables 14, 20); indigenous supply; net imports
II. Reference Scenario — Power	Electricity sales, peak demand (Table 15); generation (Table 16); capacity (Table 17); BESS
II. Reference Scenario — GHG	Doubling to 270.1 MtCO₂e by 2050; by sector and fuel
II. Medium-term highlights	2023–2028 TFEC and TPES tables; PDP comparison; SDG tables
III. CES opener	CES TFEC (82.9 MTOE), TPES (127.3 MTOE); fuel input comparison (Table 25)

Canonical Name	Abbreviation	Class	Notes
Department of Transportation	DOTr	government	IFPs, rail expansion plans referenced
Development Budget Coordinating Council	DBCC	government	Macro price forecast source
International Monetary Fund	IMF	international	Exchange rate/inflation assumptions
Institute of Energy Economics, Japan	IEEJ	international	Simple E2 demand modeling tool
Stockholm Environment Institute	SEI	international	LEAP integrated energy/GHG modeling tool

Metric	2022	2028 (REF)	2050 (REF)	2050 (CES-1)
TFEC	35.9 MTOE	45.0 MTOE	90.6 MTOE	82.9 MTOE
TPES	61.6 MTOE	75.2 MTOE	140.5 MTOE	127.3 MTOE
Self-sufficiency	49.4%	~49.5%	38.9%	52.9%
Net imports	31.1 MTOE	—	85.8 MTOE	lower
LNG net imports	0	—	24.3 MTOE	10.6 MTOE
Power generation	111.5 TWh	170.4 TWh	453.8 TWh	443.9 TWh
Coal generation share	59.6%	~45.9%	14.1%	lower
Gas generation share	16.0%	~18.5%	35.0%	~lower
RE generation share	22.1%	31.9%	50.7%	>50%
Peak demand	16.6 GW	22.6 GW	68.5 GW	similar
Total installed capacity	28.3 GW	—	151.0 GW	154.3 GW
Solar capacity	1.5 GW	—	56.5 GW	higher
Wind capacity	0.4 GW	—	32.3 GW	higher
BESS capacity	156 MW	—	3.8 GW	22.0 GW
GHG emissions	135.7 MtCO₂e	—	270.1 MtCO₂e	~199.6 MtCO₂e

Section E (pages 96–128): Full CES power generation mix, installed capacity, GHG projections; CFPP retirement schedule; nuclear entry detail — all deferred to next ingest
RA 11592 (LPG Industry Regulation Act): Cited in household demand section as driver of LPG growth; stub page still deferred
CREVI (Comprehensive Roadmap for EV Industry): Cited as basis for 10% EV REF assumption; standalone page deferred to EV/EVIDA ingest
7 LNG projects: Named individually in source? No — only aggregate (7 projects, 22 MTPA) given; project names deferred to upstream energy ingest
OPEC/IMF/DBCC: Modeling assumption sources only; not added to entities.md as not energy policy actors