Philippine Energy Policy Wiki

PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I — Section A: Overview and Ensuring Energy Security

Status
operative
Confidence
high
Effective date
2023

Source: raw/_pdf/planning-docs/pep-2023-2050-vol1.pdf, pages 10–35 (internal pages 1–26).

Key Takeaways

This section establishes the strategic framework, scenario definitions, and high-level energy outlook for the entire Philippine Energy Plan 2023-2050. It is the foundation document for all other PEP sections.

ARC Strategic Framework

The DOE’s energy agenda is organized around three objectives — Access, Reliability/Resiliency, and Clean energy (ARC) — aligned with:

  • AmBisyon Natin 2040 (long-term national vision)
  • Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2028 (medium-term)
  • UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically SDG 7

See ARC Framework for full detail.

Scenario Definitions

Three scenarios are defined for the 2023–2050 planning horizon:

ScenarioKey Supply AdditionsKey Demand Assumptions
Reference (REF)Existing + committed plants; 35% RE by 2030, 50% by 205010% EV penetration by 2040; B2/E10 biofuel blend; 5% EEC
CES-1REF + 19 GW offshore wind + 4,800 MW nuclear by 205050% EV penetration by 2040; B5/E10 by 2026; 10% EEC
CES-2REF + 50 GW offshore wind + 4,800 MW nuclear by 2050Same as CES-1

See Reference Scenario (REF) and Clean Energy Scenarios (CES-1 and CES-2) .

Key Quantitative Findings

TFEC projections:

  • 2022 actual: 35.9 MTOE [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.7, 2023]
  • 2050 REF: 90.6 MTOE (+3.4%/yr) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.11, 2023]
  • 2050 CES-1: 82.87 MTOE [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 1, 2023]

TPES projections:

  • 2022 actual: 61.6 MTOE; self-sufficiency 49.4% [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.8, 2023]
  • 2050 REF: 140.5 MTOE; self-sufficiency 38.9% [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.12, 2023]
  • 2050 CES-1: 127.3 MTOE; self-sufficiency 52.9% [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.14, 2023]
  • 2050 CES-2: 122.3 MTOE; self-sufficiency 54.8% [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.15, 2023]

Power sector:

  • Total gross generation 2022: 111.5 TWh [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.13, 2023]
  • Total gross generation 2050 REF: 453.8 TWh [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.13, 2023]
  • RE installed capacity 2022: 8.3 GW [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.16, 2023]
  • RE installed capacity 2030 target (REF/CES-1): ~26 GW; CES-2: 30.5 GW [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.16, 2023]

BESS requirements:

  • 65 GWh by 2030; 466 GWh by 2040; 1,021 GWh by 2050 (REF) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.13, 2023]
  • 22.0 GW installed capacity under CES-1 by 2050 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.14, 2023]
  • 24.7 GW installed capacity under CES-2 by 2050 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.15, 2023]

GHG:

  • 2022 actual: 135.7 MtCO₂e [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.9, 2023]
  • NDC reduction projected: 54.5% (REF), 63.2% (CES-1), 66.4% (CES-2) vs. PEP 2018-2040 baseline [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.20, 2023]
  • Cumulative GHG avoidance/reduction 2023–2050: 2,173.5 MtCO₂e (CES-1), 2,458.2 MtCO₂e (CES-2) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.20, 2023]

Investment and jobs:

  • Total investment: PhP20 trillion / USD357B (REF); PhP28–31 trillion / USD506–570B (CES) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.10, 2023]
  • Job generation: 1.4–1.8 million jobs [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.10, 2023]

Named Laws and Instruments Referenced

  • RA 11646 — Microgrid Systems Act (MGSA) of 2022 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.3, 2023]
  • EO 21 — Policy and Administrative Framework for Offshore Wind Development [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.21, 2023]
  • EPIRA (RA 9136) — flagged for review [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.6, 2023]
  • Downstream Oil Industry Deregulation Act — flagged for review [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.6, 2023]

Programs Referenced

  • SGGP (Smart and Green Grid Plan) — modernize transmission for RE integration [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.4, 2023]
  • CREZ (Competitive Renewable Energy Zones) — 25 RE Zones identified [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.18, 2023]
  • CREVI (Comprehensive Roadmap on Electric Vehicle Industry) — 50% EV re-fleeting by 2040 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.22, 2023]
  • EVOSS (Energy Virtual One-Stop-Shop) — streamlines energy project permits [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.6, 2023]
  • NREP (National Renewable Energy Program) — RE capacity targets [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.21, 2023]
  • Total Electrification Program — 100% household electrification by 2028 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.3, 2023]
  • SEGF (Sustainable Energy Credit Guarantee Facility) — sovereign guarantee for RE financing via PHILGUARANTEE [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.21, 2023]

Raw extraction: pdftotext output