PDP 2023-2050 Ch.2 — Scenario Results by Grid, Committed & Indicative Projects, Transmission

Status: operative
Confidence: high
Effective date: 2025-02

Source: raw/_pdf/planning-docs/pdp-2023-2050.pdf, document pages 64–99 (PDF offset 0).

Coverage

Section 4.2 (continued): CEM simulation results — REF/CES1/CES2 × Luzon/Visayas/Mindanao power demand and supply outlook; new build capacities (Tables 30–47); generation mix (GWh and % share)
Section 5: Committed and indicative projects update — Table 48 (committed), Table 49 (indicative)
Section 6: Committed power projects and associated transmission — Tables 50–52 by grid

Section 4.2: Scenario Results by Grid

4.2.1 Reference Scenario (REF)

Luzon REF: Installed capacity grows from 19,746 MW (2022) to 80,781 MW by 2050 (4× growth). New builds required (MW) [PDP 2023-2050, pp.64–65, 2025]:

Technology	Total New Build (MW)
Ground-Mounted Solar	23,469
BTM Solar	2,000
Floating Solar	457
Wind (onshore)	11,644
Impounding Hydro	300
Pumped Hydro	1,000
Natural Gas	7,544
BESS	866

2050 generation mix: Coal 19%, NatGas 34%, RE 47% [PDP 2023-2050, Figure/Table, pp.64–65, 2025].

Visayas REF: Installed capacity grows from 3,971 MW (2022) to 47,450 MW by 2050 (12× growth — highest grid growth rate under REF due to large solar and wind builds). New builds [PDP 2023-2050, pp.66–67, 2025]:

Technology	Total New Build (MW)
Ground-Mounted Solar	10,876
BTM Solar	1,000
Floating Solar	380
Wind (onshore)	10,165
Impounding+Pumped Hydro	5,800
Natural Gas	11,904
BESS	634

2050 generation mix: Coal 4%, NatGas 48%, RE 48% [PDP 2023-2050, pp.66–67, 2025].

Mindanao REF: Installed capacity grows from 4,542 MW (2022) to 22,736 MW by 2050 (5× growth). New builds [PDP 2023-2050, pp.68–69, 2025]:

Technology	Total New Build (MW)
Ground-Mounted Solar	10,203
BTM Solar	1,000
Hydro (ROR + impounding)	3,325
Pumped Hydro	800
Wind	1,498
Natural Gas	20
BESS	44

2050 generation mix: Coal 22%, NatGas 0%, RE 78% — highest RE share of any grid under any scenario, driven by Mindanao’s hydro and solar resources [PDP 2023-2050, pp.68–69, 2025].

4.2.2 CES 1 (Low Offshore Wind — 19 GW OSW)

Luzon CES 1: Installed capacity grows to 101,212 MW by 2050 (5× growth); coal repurposing 3,287 MW. New builds [PDP 2023-2050, pp.70–73, 2025]:

Technology	Total New Build (MW)
Ground-Mounted Solar	25,960
BTM Solar	1,910
Floating Solar	360
Wind (onshore)	14,550
OSW	19,500
Hydro (ROR + impounding)	3,030
Pumped Hydro	1,100
Natural Gas	4,096
Nuclear	3,900
BESS	11,846

2050 generation mix: Coal 10%, NatGas 13%, Nuclear 10%, RE 66% [PDP 2023-2050, pp.72–73, 2025].

Visayas CES 1: Installed capacity grows to 36,168 MW by 2050 (9× growth); coal repurposing 103 MW. No OSW awarded to Visayas under CES 1. New builds [PDP 2023-2050, pp.74–77, 2025]:

Technology	Total New Build (MW)
Ground-Mounted Solar	10,286
BTM Solar	1,000
Floating Solar	150
Wind (onshore)	9,539
Hydro (ROR + impounding)	300
Pumped Hydro	500
Natural Gas	8,720
Nuclear	450
BESS	4,625

2050 generation mix: Coal 7%, NatGas 28%, Nuclear 4%, RE 61% [PDP 2023-2050, pp.76–77, 2025].

Mindanao CES 1: Installed capacity grows to 16,939 MW by 2050 (4× growth); coal repurposing 232 MW. New builds [PDP 2023-2050, pp.78–81, 2025]:

Technology	Total New Build (MW)
Ground-Mounted Solar	7,855
BTM Solar	1,000
Floating Solar	150
Wind	136
Hydro (ROR + impounding)	1,600
Natural Gas	760
Nuclear	450
BESS	3,308

2050 generation mix: Coal 26%, NatGas 1%, Nuclear 8%, RE 64% [PDP 2023-2050, pp.80–81, 2025].

Note: Mindanao coal share is higher in CES 1 (26%) than REF (22%) in percentage terms, but lower in absolute GWh — the higher percentage reflects lower total generation as fewer new non-coal resources are built in Mindanao under CES 1 vs REF.

4.2.3 CES 2 (High Offshore Wind — 50 GW OSW)

Luzon CES 2: Installed capacity grows to 120,824 MW by 2050 (6× growth); coal repurposing 4,059 MW. New builds [PDP 2023-2050, pp.82–85, 2025]:

Technology	Total New Build (MW)
Ground-Mounted Solar	21,727
BTM Solar	1,910
Floating Solar	240
Wind (onshore)	10,987
OSW	46,100
Hydro (ROR + impounding)	2,610
Pumped Hydro	1,100
Natural Gas	6,216
Nuclear	3,900
BESS	14,211

2050 generation mix: Coal 8%, NatGas 8%, Nuclear 9%, RE 74% [PDP 2023-2050, pp.84–85, 2025].

Visayas CES 2: Installed capacity grows to 24,351 MW by 2050 (6× growth); coal repurposing 512.7 MW. New builds [PDP 2023-2050, pp.86–87, 2025]:

Technology	Total New Build (MW)
Ground-Mounted Solar	2,100
BTM Solar	1,000
Floating Solar	150
Wind (onshore)	2,550
OSW	4,000
Hydro (ROR + impounding)	300
Pumped Hydro	300
Natural Gas	8,688
Nuclear	450
BESS	5,522

2050 generation mix: Coal 7%, NatGas 26%, Nuclear 5%, RE 62% [PDP 2023-2050, pp.86–87, 2025].

Mindanao CES 2: Installed capacity grows from 4,542 MW (2022) to 11,214 MW by 2050 (~2.5× growth — significantly smaller than CES 1 Mindanao at 16,939 MW); coal repurposing 232 MW. New builds [PDP 2023-2050, Table 46, pp.88–89, 2025]:

Technology	Total New Build (MW)
Ground-Mounted Solar	2,500
Wind	136
Hydro (ROR + impounding)	1,600
Geothermal	120
Natural Gas	1,540
Nuclear	450
BESS	2,693

2050 generation mix: Coal 31%, NatGas 7%, Nuclear 11%, RE 51% [PDP 2023-2050, Table 47, p.89, 2025].

Note: Mindanao CES 2 shows the highest coal share (31%) of any grid-scenario combination in the plan. This reflects that under CES 2, the large OSW build is concentrated in Luzon (46.1 GW) and partially Visayas (4 GW), leaving Mindanao with a smaller RE build and continued reliance on existing coal plants.

Grid	REF Coal/Gas/RE	CES 1 Coal/Gas/Nuclear/RE	CES 2 Coal/Gas/Nuclear/RE
Luzon	19/34/47	10/13/10/66	8/8/9/74
Visayas	4/48/48	7/28/4/61	7/26/5/62
Mindanao	22/0/78	26/1/8/64	31/7/11/51

[PDP 2023-2050, Chapter 2 Section 4.2, pp.64–89, 2025]

Cross-Scenario Summary: Installed Capacity 2022→2050

Grid	2022 (MW)	REF 2050	CES 1 2050	CES 2 2050
Luzon	19,746	80,781 (4×)	101,212 (5×)	120,824 (6×)
Visayas	3,971	47,450 (12×)	36,168 (9×)	24,351 (6×)
Mindanao	4,542	22,736 (5×)	16,939 (4×)	11,214 (~2.5×)

[PDP 2023-2050, Chapter 2, pp.64–89, 2025]

Note: Under REF, Visayas shows a 12× capacity increase because the CEM selects large solar and wind builds there in the absence of OSW and nuclear constraints; the grid’s smaller starting base amplifies the multiple.

Section 5: Committed and Indicative Projects Update

Committed Projects (Table 48, as of 31 May 2023)

Total committed: 9,557 MW power + 2,084 MW BESS targeting COD 2023–2027 or TBD [PDP 2023-2050, Table 48, p.91, 2025].

Plant Type	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	TBD	Total
Coal	300	300	850	585	270	—	2,305
Oil-Based	11	48	28	—	—	—	87
Natural Gas	1,313	—	—	1,100	—	1,088	3,500
RE (subtotal)	1,157	1,592	1,942	266	22	—	3,666
— Biomass	74	4	5	—	—	—	84
— Geothermal	46	32	10	10	22	—	120
— Solar	823	177	1,732	186	—	—	2,918
— Hydropower	104	41	127	—	—	—	271
— Wind	110	25	68	70	—	—	273
TOTAL	1,468	1,939	2,820	851	1,392	1,088	9,557
Battery ESS	780	784	520	—	—	—	2,084

Key observations:

Coal committed pipeline: 2,305 MW = 24.1% of the 9,557 MW total [PDP 2023-2050, p.91, 2025]
RE: 38.4% (3,666 MW); NatGas: 36.6% (3,500 MW); Oil: 0.9% (87 MW)
8,353 MW of the committed capacity was included in the PDP Power Outlook scenarios (the rest was already reflected in the 2022 baseline)

Moratorium Impact on Coal Pipeline

With the coal moratorium enforced from 27 October 2020, combined committed and indicative coal projects dropped from 11,289 MW (October 2020) to 3,125 MW (May 2023) — a 72.3% reduction in 2.5 years [PDP 2023-2050, p.91, 2025].

Indicative Projects (Table 49, as of 31 May 2023)

Total indicative: 57,258 MW (2023–2037 + TBD) + 1,930 MW BESS [PDP 2023-2050, Table 49, p.92, 2025].

Plant Type	Total (MW)	Share
Coal	820	1.4%
Oil-Based	155	0.3%
Natural Gas	10,800	18.9%
RE (subtotal)	45,483	79.4%
— Wind	31,497	55.0% of total
— Hydropower	7,812	13.6%
— Solar	5,679	9.9%
— Geothermal	421	0.7%
— Biomass	74	0.1%

Wind dominates the indicative list (55.0% / 31,497 MW), reflecting the large DOE wind service contract pipeline. The indicative list represents pre-development projects that have secured NGCP system impact study clearances.

Section 6: Committed Projects and Associated Transmission (Tables 50–52)

Tables 50–52 cross-reference committed power projects with their associated transmission requirements from the Transmission Development Plan 2023-2040 (TDP 2023-2040 — not yet approved by DOE as of Feb 2025). Source: TDP 2023-2040 [PDP 2023-2050, pp.93–99, 2025].

6.1 Luzon (Table 50) — Selected Major Projects

Power Project	Capacity	COD	Transmission Project	TDP Completion
Mariveles Coal Ph1+2 (MPPL)	1,200 MW	Aug 2023–Sep 2026	Mariveles (Alas-asin) 500 kV SS; Mariveles–Hermosa 500 kV TL	Jan 2024
Masinloc Power Plant expansion	700 MW	TBD	Bolo 500 kV SS; Western 500 kV Backbone Stage 2; Palauig 500 kV SS	Dec 2025/Dec 2027
EERI Batangas CCPP Ph1+2	1,312.5 MW	Sep 2024	Ilijan 500 kV Switchyard	N/A
BCEI Natural Gas-Fired PP	1,100 MW	Jan 2027	Pinamucan 500 kV SS; Pagbilao 230/500 kV SS	Jun 2024
Tayabas SPP	450 MW	Dec 2025	Tayabas–Taguig-Silang 500 kV TL	Aug 2032
Concepcion Tarlac 2 SPP	200 MW	Dec 2025	Marilao–Mexico 230 kV TL Upgrading	Aug 2032
Sapang Balen Solar 2 (5 phases)	~5×93 MW	2024–2026	Magalang 230 kV SS (all phases)	Dec 2027
Caparispisan II Wind PP	160 MW	Dec 2025	Bolo–Balaoan 500 kV TL; Balaoan–Laoag 500 kV TL	Mar 2028
Calatagan Wind PP	30 MW	Dec 2025	Tuy 230 kV SS	Feb 2031

[PDP 2023-2050, Table 50, pp.93–95, 2025]

6.2 Visayas (Table 51) — Selected Major Projects

Power Project	Capacity	COD	Transmission Project	TDP Completion
Palm Concepcion Coal-Fired PP	135 MW	Jun 2026	Direct to Concepcion SS; Eastern Panay TL	Completed
Biliran Geothermal Units 1–5	50 MW	Dec 2023–Dec 2027	Tabango–Biliran 69 kV TL	Jun 2027
Northern Negros Geothermal	5.6 MW	Sep 2024	Bacolod 138 kV SS; CNP 230 kV Backbone Stage 3	Mar 2024
Ormoc BESS (2×300 MW)	300 MW	Jul 2023	Ormoc 230 kV SS; Cebu-Leyte 230 kV Interconnection L3+4	Dec 2031
Nabas-2 Wind PP	13.2 MW	May 2025	CNP 230 kV Backbone Stage 3	Mar 2024

[PDP 2023-2050, Table 51, pp.96–97, 2025]

6.3 Mindanao (Table 52) — Selected Major Projects

Power Project	Capacity	COD	Transmission Project	TDP Completion
FDC-MPC CFB Coal-Fired PP	270 MW	Mar 2027	Villanueva–Kinamlutan 230 kV TL	Jan 2027
Liangan HPP	11.9 MW	Aug 2023	Agus 6 Substation	—
Maladugao (Upper Cascade) HPP	8.4 MW	Jan 2025	Maramag SS	N/A
Bubunawan HPP	23 MW	Dec 2025	No SIS yet	—

[PDP 2023-2050, Table 52, pp.98–99, 2025]

The TDP 2023-2040 had not yet been approved by the DOE at the time of the PDP’s publication (February 2025). All transmission projects and completion dates are subject to update [PDP 2023-2050, p.93, 2025]. See Transmission Development Plan (TDP) .

Pages Created or Updated

Page	Action
MOC: Power Development Plan 2023-2050	Updated — added “Scenario Results” section with 2050 generation mix tables and capacity growth by grid
Coal Moratorium (2020)	Updated — added moratorium impact: 11,289 MW → 3,125 MW committed+indicative coal (72.3% drop, Oct 2020 → May 2023)
Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Energy Storage System Policy	Updated — added PDP CEM BESS new build figures by grid/scenario; added May 2023 committed pipeline (2,084 MW)

Raw extraction: pdftotext output