NREP 2020-2040 §B — 2020-2040 Targets and RE Outlook
Source: raw/_pdf/planning-docs/nrep-2020-2040.pdf
Chapter: Chapter II (NREP 2020-2040 Targets and Outlook)
Pages: pp. 14–24 (PDF pp. 27–37; offset = 13)
Scope
Chapter II — the updated RE-share targets and five overarching goals, the PLEXOS-modeled RE Outlook 2021-2040 (new-build and generation-mix projections), and the committed/indicative RE project pipeline as of December 2021.
A. RE Targets and Goals
| Year | RE Share Target |
|---|---|
| 2030 | At least 35% |
| 2040 | At least 50% |
Note: The 2030 target aims to revert RE share to its 2008 level when the RE Act was enacted — not to surpass historic highs.
Five overarching RE goals [NREP 2020-2040, p.15, 2022]:
- Energy Security — reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels; reduce exposure to price/exchange rate volatility
- Sustainable Development — aligned with AmBisyon 2040, Philippine Development Plan 2017-2022, SDG 7
- Climate Change Mitigation — NDC submitted 15 April 2021: 75% GHG reduction vs. BAU by 2030; energy sector = 59% of GHG (2019)
- Capacity Building — advances technical knowledge, R&D, distributed generation, storage, smart grid
- Inclusive Growth — RE/hybrid for off-grid areas; local investments; job creation
B. RE Outlook 2021-2040 — Modeling
Modeled using PLEXOS® (Energy Exemplar). Note: BESS, nuclear, hydrogen, fuel cell, ocean, and offshore wind were NOT included as new build options — these were categorized as emerging/experimental technologies at the time of model development [NREP 2020-2040, Table 3, p.17, 2022].
Table 5 — Philippines RE Outlook 2021-2040 (Cumulative New Build, in MW) [NREP 2020-2040, Table 5, p.20, 2022]:
| Category | 2021 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committed — Coal | 1,300 | 2,955 | 2,955 | 2,955 | 2,955 |
| Committed — Natural Gas | 0 | 3,404 | 3,404 | 3,404 | 3,404 |
| Committed — Biomass | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Committed — Geothermal | 20 | 60 | 140 | 140 | 140 |
| Committed — Solar | 286 | 409 | 409 | 409 | 409 |
| Committed — Hydro | 70 | 144 | 144 | 144 | 144 |
| Committed — Wind | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 | 132 |
| New Build — Natural Gas | 0 | 759 | 2,259 | 8,159 | 18,859 |
| New Build — Solar | 0 | 2,660 | 5,585 | 8,910 | 27,162 |
| New Build — Hydro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,200 | 6,150 |
| New Build — Geothermal | 0 | 0 | 850 | 1,900 | 2,500 |
| New Build — Wind | 0 | 0 | 6,450 | 13,050 | 16,650 |
| New Build — Biomass | 0 | 120 | 120 | 360 | 364 |
| Existing Capacity | 22,954 | 22,954 | 22,954 | 22,954 | 22,954 |
| Peak Demand | 16,482 | 21,019 | 29,128 | 40,209 | 54,655 |
Total installed by 2040: ~102,231 MW
Table 6 — Power Generation Mix (GWh and %) [NREP 2020-2040, Table 6, p.21, 2022]:
| Plant Type | 2021 GWh | 2025 GWh | 2030 GWh | 2035 GWh | 2040 GWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 64,704 | 83,696 | 84,306 | 89,303 | 84,491 |
| Oil-based | 84 | 140 | 308 | 509 | 365 |
| Natural Gas | 18,776 | 13,810 | 36,618 | 58,105 | 89,866 |
| RE Total | 22,917 | 37,071 | 65,316 | 109,384 | 174,783 |
| — Biomass | 847 | 1,455 | 1,455 | 2,331 | 2,353 |
| — Geothermal | 9,573 | 16,883 | 23,293 | 31,144 | 35,321 |
| — Solar | 1,263 | 5,945 | 10,436 | 15,540 | 43,686 |
| — Hydro | 10,424 | 11,677 | 12,884 | 26,041 | 49,697 |
| — Wind | 810 | 1,112 | 17,250 | 34,328 | 43,726 |
| Total | 106,481 | 134,717 | 186,547 | 257,301 | 349,505 |
| RE % Share | 22% | 28% | 35% | 43% | 50% |
| Coal % | 61% | 62% | 45% | 35% | 24% |
| Gas % | 18% | 10% | 20% | 23% | 26% |
Key pattern: coal share actually grows in absolute GWh through 2035 before declining; natural gas plays a significant bridging role (18,859 MW new build by 2040 = largest single new-build category).
C. Upcoming RE Projects (as of Dec 2021)
Committed RE (901 MW, operational 2022-2027):
- Solar: 489 MW (54%)
- Hydro: 232 MW (26%)
- Geothermal: 116 MW (13%)
- Biomass: 65 MW (7%)
- By grid: Luzon 694 MW (77%), Mindanao 114 MW (13%), Visayas 94 MW (10%)
Indicative RE (27,334 MW, potential operational 2022-2032):
- Solar: 14,688 MW (54%)
- Wind: 6,473 MW (24%)
- Hydro: 5,862 MW (21%)
- Geothermal: 274 MW (1%)
- Biomass: 37 MW (<1%)
- By grid: Luzon 22,789 MW (83%), Visayas 3,595 MW (13%), Mindanao 951 MW (3%)
[NREP 2020-2040, pp.22-24, 2022]
Raw extraction: pdftotext output