NREP 2020-2040 §A — NREP 2011-2030 Assessment
Source: raw/_pdf/planning-docs/nrep-2020-2040.pdf
Chapter: Foreword/Executive Summary + Chapter I (NREP 2011-2030 Assessment)
Pages: pp. xiii–13 (PDF pp. 13–26; offset = 13)
Scope
The document’s formulation context and Chapter I — a retrospective assessment of the previous NREP (2011-2030): installation outcomes vs. targets, the policy/program instruments deployed, and the six structural barriers that held back RE development.
Executive Summary
The NREP 2020-2040 was formulated by the DOE in collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) with technical assistance from the DREAMS Project (Development for Renewable Energy Applications Mainstreaming and Market Sustainability) — funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and UNDP. A national public consultation was held on 18 March 2021 with 400+ stakeholder participants.
The document is anchored on AmBisyon Natin 2040 and aligned with the then-current PEP 2020-2040 and PDP 2020-2040 [NREP 2020-2040, p. xiii, 2022].
Chapter I — NREP 2011-2030 Assessment
A. Key Outcomes
Table 1 — NREP 2011-2030 Installation Targets vs. Actual, in MW [NREP 2020-2040, Table 1, p.1, 2022]:
| Technology | 2010 Baseline | Target Addition (2011-2030) | 2030 Target | Actual Addition (2011-2019) | Actual Installed (Dec 2019) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biomass | 39 | 277 | 316 | 470 | 363 |
| Geothermal | 1,966 | 1,495 | 3,461 | 83 | 1,928 |
| Solar | 1 | 284 | 285 | 958 | 921 |
| Hydropower | 3,400 | 5,394 | 8,794 | 195 | 3,760 |
| Wind | 33 | 2,345 | 2,378 | 410 | 427 |
| Ocean | 0 | 71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 5,438 | 9,865 | 15,304 | 2,115 | 7,399 |
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding; differences between baseline+additions and actual reflect retirements or reclassifications.
Key findings:
- 2019 actual (7,399 MW) = only ~48% of the 2030 target (15,304 MW)
- Only solar and biomass exceeded their addition targets (solar: 958 MW vs. 284 MW target; biomass: 470 MW vs. 277 MW)
- Geothermal added only 83 MW vs. 1,495 MW target — virtually no new development 2011-2019
- RE share of power generation declined from 26% (2010) to 21% (2019) — coal grew from 34% to 55%
- Despite shortfalls: PhP 217B RE investments (2009-2019), 168,400+ jobs created, 126.89 MW own-use RE facilities, 17.13M tons CO2 avoided [NREP 2020-2040, p.1-2, 2022]
B. Major Policies and Programs
| Policy/Program | Key Circular | Key Detail |
|---|---|---|
| FiT | ERC Res 16 s.2010 (rules); ERC Res 10 s.2012 (initial rates); ERC Res 24 s.2013 (FIT-ALL guidelines) | Solar target 50→500 MW; wind 200→400 MW; as of Dec 2021 only ROR hydro has 98.887 MW remaining; TRANSCO is FIT-ALL Fund Administrator (ERC Res 15 s.2012) |
| Net-Metering | ERC Res 9 s.2013 (rules); ERC Res 6 s.2019 (amendments) | 2019 amendment: 20-day max for full interconnection process; removed Distribution Impact Study fee |
| Preferential Dispatch | DC2015-03-0001 | Wind/solar/ROR hydro/ocean = must dispatch; biomass under FiT = priority dispatch |
| RPS On-Grid | DC2017-12-0015 | MPs: DUs (captive), electricity suppliers (contestable market), gen cos (DCCs), others; 1% initial annual increment |
| RPS Off-Grid | DC2018-08-0024 | Aims to rationalize UC-ME and increase RE in off-grid areas; suspended and under review at time of NREP publication |
| GEOP | DC2018-07-0019 | Voluntary; ≥100 kW average peak demand; non-regulated (direct contract with RE supplier) |
| RETF | DO2018-10-0018 (23 Oct 2018) | Special account in GFIs; 6 purposes per Section 28 RE Act |
| REM | DC2019-12-0016 (4 Dec 2019) | PREMS launched 17 December 2019; 1 REC = 1 MWh; RE Registrar operates the market |
| Omnibus Guidelines | DC2019-10-0013 | OCSP or direct application; Certificate of Registration for own-use projects |
| HEP | — | 55,248 households provided solar PV lighting (2010-2017) |
| RESHERR | DC2012-11-009 (21 Nov 2012) | RE Safety, Health, Environment Rules covering all RE technologies |
| CREZ | DC2018-09-0027 (18 Sep 2018) | USAID/NREL support; identifies geographic zones with optimal RE resources |
C. Issues and Challenges
Six structural barriers documented [NREP 2020-2040, pp.13, 2022]:
- Delayed policy implementation — RPS and GEOP issued years after RE Act (2008) mandated them
- Complex permitting — ~359 signatures from 74 agencies required for ROR hydro; ~1,340 days to complete
- Grid interconnection limits — existing grid unable to immediately absorb new RE; expansion projects delayed
- RE resource development — geothermal has 4-6 year gestation, 59% well success rate, no FiT; offshore wind/ocean lacking model projects
- Limited financing access — major banks favor large conglomerates; SME/IPP developers perceived as risky
- Climate risks — typhoon damage to RE plants; El Niño reduces hydro output
Raw extraction: pdftotext output