Reference Scenario (REF)
The Reference Scenario (REF) is the Business-as-Usual pathway in the Philippine Energy Plan 2023-2050 — the trajectory if current policies are maintained without additional aggressive interventions. It uses 2022 as the base year and 2023 as the first projection year [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.63, 2023].
Scenario Assumptions
Macroeconomic: GDP grows at 7.6% in 2022, peaks at 8.0% by 2028, averages 7.1%/yr through 2050. Based on PDP 2023-2028 and AmBisyon Natin 2040. Population from 2020 POPCEN (PSA); price forecasts from DBCC, IMF, OPEC WOO 2045 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.63, 2023].
Demand assumptions [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 7, 2023]:
- Energy intensity reduction consistent with ASEAN/APEC regional targets
- EV penetration: 10% of road transport by 2040
- Biofuels: B2 biodiesel / E10 bioethanol blending maintained
- EEC savings sustained at current efforts
Supply assumptions [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 7, 2023]:
- Existing plants and committed projects as of May 2023; WESM-registered capacities as of May 2023
- RE share targets: 35% by 2030, 50% by 2040 and beyond
- Capacity targets under NREP and CREZ
- Indigenous fossil fuel production targets: oil 61.3 MMB at 2.3 MMB/yr; gas 5.1 TCF at 0.2 TCF/yr; coal 191 MMT at 6.5 MMT/yr
- LNG imports from 2023 to augment declining Malampaya gas supply
- Coal moratorium sustained; no new coal beyond committed pipeline (2023–2027)
Models: Simple E2 (IEEJ) for final energy demand; PLEXOS (Energy Exemplar) for power capacity expansion; LEAP (Stockholm Environment Institute) for integrated GHG emissions [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, pp.65–66, 2023].
Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC)
Headline: 35.9 MTOE (2022) → 90.6 MTOE (2050), +3.4%/yr. Of the 54.7 MTOE increase, industry contributes 37.2%, followed by transport 24.5%, households 19.1%, services 15.9% [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.67, 2023].
TFEC by Sector
| Sector | 2022 (MTOE) | 2030 (MTOE) | 2040 (MTOE) | 2050 (MTOE) | CAGR | Avg Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport | 12.32 | 16.43 | 21.59 | 25.74 | +2.67% | 32.2% |
| Households | 10.31 | 12.24 | 16.00 | 20.75 | +2.53% | 25.0% |
| Industry | 7.11 | 10.71 | 17.95 | 27.44 | +4.94% | 24.4% |
| Services | 4.45 | 6.21 | 9.19 | 13.16 | +3.95% | 13.4% |
| Agriculture | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.89 | 1.30 | +4.52% | 1.2% |
| Non-energy use | 1.29 | — | — | — | +1.9% | 3.8% |
| Total | 35.86 | 37.31→45.0* | — | 90.59 | +3.4% |
*37.31 = 2023; 45.0 = 2028. [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Tables 9–13, 18, 2023]
TFEC by Fuel (2050)
| Fuel | 2022 Share | 2050 Share | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil and oil products | 50.9% | 47.6% | ↓ |
| Electricity | 21.9% | 38.7% | ↑↑ |
| Biomass (traditional) | 20.1% | 5.7% | ↓↓ |
| Coal (non-power) | 5.4% | 6.7% | ↑ |
| Biofuels | ~1.6% | ~1.2% | — |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.68, 2023]
Electricity is the fastest-growing fuel at +5.5%/yr — from 7.9 MTOE (2022) to 35.1 MTOE (2050). Biomass collapses as households switch to electricity and LPG. Oil remains the largest fuel at 47.6%, almost entirely for transport.
Key Sector Narratives
Transport (25.7 MTOE by 2050): Remains oil-dependent — oil products account for 94.4% of transport demand in 2050. EV electricity demand grows at 14.5%/yr but only reaches 1.73% of transport TFEC by 2050 under REF’s 10% EV penetration. Gasoline at 37.7% and diesel at 50.5% dominate [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 9, 2023].
Households (20.75 MTOE by 2050): Structural fuel switch: electricity rises from 29.5% to 51.3%; LPG rises from 12.3% to 34.0%; traditional biomass falls from 57.8% to 14.6%. RA 11592 (LPG Industry Regulation Act) drives LPG growth at 6.3%/yr to 7.1 MTOE. 100% electrification by 2028 and net-metering uptake accelerate electricity’s role [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 10, 2023].
Industry (27.4 MTOE by 2050): Fastest-growing sector (+4.94%/yr). Electricity becomes the primary industrial fuel at 53.6% (14.7 MTOE) by 2050 — 6× the 2022 level — driven by Industry 4.0 automation. Coal (21.9%) and oil (17.8%) remain significant for boilers, cement, and iron/steel [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 11, 2023].
Services (13.2 MTOE by 2050): Electricity reaches 64.4%; diesel declines at -0.24%/yr as service establishments adopt solar PV for backup power. LPG grows 6.2%/yr among food service [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 12, 2023].
Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)
Headline: 61.6 MTOE (2022) → 140.5 MTOE (2050), +3.0%/yr. Self-sufficiency worsens from 49.4% to 38.9% — the economy grows faster than domestic RE can compensate for declining fossil fuel production [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 14, 2023].
TPES by Fuel
| Fuel | 2022 (MTOE) | 2030 (MTOE) | 2040 (MTOE) | 2050 (MTOE) | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil-based | 19.83 | 25.58 | 34.50 | 43.50 | +2.84% |
| Natural gas (incl. LNG) | 2.61 | 4.92 | 10.83 | 24.82 | +8.37% |
| Coal | 19.08 | 22.63 | 22.43 | 22.28 | +0.56% |
| Renewable (all) | 20.04 | 26.56 | 39.89 | 49.89 | +3.31% |
| — Geothermal | 8.96 | 12.36 | 16.23 | 18.30 | +2.58% |
| — Hydro | 2.51 | 2.70 | 6.65 | 10.59 | +5.27% |
| — Wind | 0.09 | 1.34 | 4.21 | 7.98 | +17.44% |
| — Solar | 0.16 | 1.54 | 4.30 | 6.34 | +14.13% |
| — Biomass | 7.73 | 7.88 | 7.56 | 5.60 | −1.15% |
| — Biofuels | 0.59 | 0.73 | 0.94 | 1.09 | +2.24% |
| Total | 61.56 | 79.69 | 107.65 | 140.50 | +2.99% |
| Self-sufficiency | 49.4% | 49.5% | 41.6% | 38.9% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 14, 2023]
Natural gas (+8.37%/yr) is the standout: LNG imports fill the Malampaya vacuum and make gas the fastest-growing primary fuel. See LNG Imports as Transition Fuel .
Wind (+17.44%) and solar (+14.13%) grow fastest among RE sources, but from a small base. Biomass declines as household demand falls.
Net Energy Imports
Net imports rise from 31.1 MTOE (2022) to 85.8 MTOE (2050) — from 50.6% to 61.1% of TPES. Import dependency worsens significantly under REF. Net oil imports double to 43.1 MTOE; LNG net imports grow from 0 to 24.3 MTOE; coal net imports rise to 17.9 MTOE [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, pp.77–78, 2023].
Indigenous Energy
Domestic production reaches 54.7 MTOE by 2050 (+2.1%/yr); RE accounts for 90.3% of indigenous energy in 2050. Malampaya natural gas production falls from 2.6 MTOE to 0.6 MTOE by 2050 (-5.3%/yr). Domestic coal production drops from 7.6 to 4.4 MTOE (-2%/yr). Solar reaches 56.5 GW of installed capacity; wind adds more than 30 GW [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, pp.78–79, 2023].
Power Demand and Supply
Electricity Sales and Peak Demand
| Year | Peak Demand (GW) | Electricity Sales (TWh) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16.6 | 91.3 |
| 2028 | 22.6 | 124.8 |
| 2030 | 25.4 | 140.5 |
| 2040 | 42.8 | 249.2 |
| 2050 | 68.5 | 408.1 |
| CAGR | +5.19% | +5.49% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 15, 2023]
Luzon maintains >70% of national electricity sales throughout. Visayas has the fastest peak demand growth at 5.6%/yr.
Gross Generation by Fuel
| Fuel | 2022 (TWh) | 2022 (%) | 2030 (TWh) | 2040 (TWh) | 2050 (TWh) | 2050 (%) | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 66.43 | 59.6% | 78.18 | 71.17 | 63.77 | 14.1% | −0.15% |
| Natural gas | 17.88 | 16.0% | 31.48 | 69.26 | 158.76 | 35.0% | +8.11% |
| Oil-based | 2.52 | 2.3% | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 0.2% | −3.03% |
| Renewable | 24.68 | 22.1% | 59.62 | 144.82 | 230.23 | 50.7% | +8.30% |
| — Geothermal | 10.42 | 9.4% | 14.38 | 18.88 | 21.29 | 4.7% | +2.58% |
| — Hydro | 10.08 | 9.0% | 10.53 | 25.95 | 41.30 | 9.1% | +5.16% |
| — Wind | 1.03 | 0.9% | 15.63 | 49.00 | 92.76 | 20.4% | +17.44% |
| — Solar | 1.82 | 1.6% | 17.96 | 49.99 | 73.72 | 16.2% | +14.13% |
| — Biomass | 1.32 | 1.2% | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 0.3% | −0.47% |
| Total | 111.52 | 100% | 170.35 | 286.31 | 453.81 | 100% | +5.14% |
| BESS (GWh) | 0.06 | — | 0.47 | 1.02 | 11.00 | — |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 16, 2023]
Coal output peaks around 2030 (78.2 TWh) then declines to 63.8 TWh by 2050 as committed CFPPs age out — a small absolute decline that represents a massive share collapse (59.6% → 14.1%). Natural gas becomes the largest single generation source by 2050 at 35%, powered by LNG imports. RE reaches 50.7% by 2050, with wind (20.4%) and solar (16.2%) as the leading sources.
Installed Capacity
| Fuel | 2022 (MW) | Added 2023–28 (MW) | Added 2029–50 (MW) | 2050 (MW) | 2050 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 12,428 | 2,305 | 0 | 14,733 | 9.8% |
| Natural gas | 3,732 | 2,413 | 19,468 | 25,613 | 17.0% |
| Oil | 3,834 | 20 | 0 | 3,854 | 2.6% |
| Renewable (total) | 8,265 | 13,791 | 84,712 | 106,768 | 70.7% |
| — Solar | 1,530 | 9,328 | 45,620 | 56,478 | 37.4% |
| — Wind | 427 | 3,700 | 28,142 | 32,269 | 21.4% |
| — Hydro | 3,745 | 295 | 9,970 | 14,011 | 9.3% |
| — Geothermal | 1,952 | 425 | 930 | 3,307 | 2.2% |
| — Biomass | 611 | 42 | 50 | 703 | 0.5% |
| Total | 28,259 | 18,528 | 104,810 | 150,967 | 100% |
| BESS (MW) | 156 | 2,080 | 1,544 | 3,780 | — |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 17, 2023]
Solar will be the largest single technology at 37.4% of installed capacity (56.5 GW) by 2050. The coal moratorium prevents any new coal after the 2023–2027 committed pipeline. Total additional capacity needed: 122.7 GW. BESS grows from 156 MW to 3.8 GW (REF); see Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Energy Storage System Policy for storage requirements.
GHG Emissions Under REF
GHG emissions double from 135.7 MtCO₂e (2022) to 270.1 MtCO₂e (2050) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.80, 2023].
| Sector | 2022 Share | 2050 Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity/transformation | 57.1% | → 45.2% (decarbonizes) |
| Transport | 26.1% | → 27.1% (+2.6%/yr) |
| Industry | 9.5% | rises +4.0%/yr |
| Households/services/agri | 7.3% | declines |
By fuel: coal GHG grows slowly (+0.5%/yr to 86.6 MtCO₂e); oil GHG grows +3.0%/yr; gas GHG grows fastest (+8.4%/yr to 58.0 MtCO₂e) as LNG volumes surge. See GHG Emissions — Energy Sector (2022 Baseline) for the 2022 baseline and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) — Philippines for NDC context.
Medium-Term Outlook (2023–2028)
Under REF, TFEC grows to 45.0 MTOE by 2028 (+3.9%/yr) and TPES to 75.2 MTOE (+3.4%/yr) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Tables 18–20, 2023].
PDP 2023-2028 alignment (SDG Tier 1 indicators):
| Indicator | 2022 Actual | 2028 REF | 2028 CES-1 | PDP Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Household electrification | 96.7% | 100.0% (by 2028) | — | ~95.5% (TBD) |
| Electricity per capita (kWh) | 999 | 1,262 | 1,250 | 1,172 |
| RE share in generation mix | 22.1% | 31.9% | 39.2% | 33% |
| Energy intensity (TOE/MPhP) | 3.09 | 2.48 | 2.36 | TBD |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Tables 21–24, 2023]
The PEP 2023-2050 exceeds PDP 2023-2028 targets on all four SDG Tier 1 indicators under both REF and CES. By 2028, RE share under CES is 6–9 percentage points higher than under REF, with approximately 2 GW of OSW already in the mix.
Contrast with CES
Under REF, self-sufficiency worsens (49.4% → 38.9%) because LNG imports fill the Malampaya gap at scale. Under CES-1 and CES-2, self-sufficiency improves to 52.9% and 54.8% respectively because OSW and nuclear displace imported gas and oil. See Clean Energy Scenarios (CES-1 and CES-2) .
| Indicator | 2022 | REF 2050 | CES-1 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| TFEC | 35.9 MTOE | 90.6 MTOE | 82.9 MTOE |
| TPES | 61.6 MTOE | 140.5 MTOE | 127.3 MTOE |
| Self-sufficiency | 49.4% | 38.9% | 52.9% |
| GHG emissions | 135.7 MtCO₂e | 270.1 MtCO₂e | ~199.6 MtCO₂e |
| RE share of TPES | 32.6% | 35.5% | 41.1% |