Philippine Energy Policy Wiki

Renewable Energy Targets 2023-2050

Status
operative
Confidence
high

The Philippines has set legally-backed RE share targets in the power generation mix, established in the Philippine Energy Plan 2023-2050 and aligned with the Renewable Energy Act (RA 9513) .

Official Targets

MilestoneRE Share in Generation MixSource
2030At least 35%[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Overview p.2, 2023]
2040At least 50%[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Overview p.2, 2023]
2050More than 50%[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Overview p.2, 2023]

These targets apply under all three scenarios (REF, CES-1, CES-2), though the pathways differ.

Baseline

  • RE installed capacity 2022: 8.3 GW [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.16, 2023]
  • RE generation share 2022: 22.1% of total generation [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.8, 2023]
  • RE share of TPES 2022: 32.6% [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.8, 2023]

Capacity Required to Meet Targets

To reach 35% RE by 2030, the 2022 installed RE capacity of 8.3 GW must triple to approximately 26 GW (REF/CES-1) or 30.5 GW (CES-2) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.16, 2023].

By 2050:

  • CES-1: 114.8 GW of RE (74.4% of total 154.3 GW installed capacity)
  • CES-2: Higher wind displaces other RE; RE share 73.7% of total 156.4 GW

Technology Mix Driving Targets

Under CES-1/CES-2, the dominant RE additions are [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.13-15, 2023]:

  • Solar: grows from 1.8 TWh (2022) to 73.7 TWh (2050); 17.4%/yr
  • Wind (onshore + offshore): grows from 1 TWh (2022) to 92.8 TWh (2050); 14.1%/yr
  • Offshore wind: 19 GW (CES-1) or 50 GW (CES-2) — see Offshore Wind (OSW)
  • Hydro and geothermal: continued development
  • Nuclear: 4,800 MW by 2050 (not RE but low-carbon) — see Nuclear Energy Program (Philippines)

BESS Requirement

Variable RE (VRE) intermittency requires large-scale battery storage — see Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Energy Storage System Policy — [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.13, 2023]:

  • 65 GWh BESS by 2030
  • 466 GWh by 2040
  • 1,021 GWh by 2050 (REF)
  • 22.0 GW installed capacity by 2050 (CES-1)
  • 24.7 GW installed capacity by 2050 (CES-2)

International Context

The Philippines’ RE targets align with and exceed several international benchmarks [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.19, 2023]:

  • APAEC 2016-2025 Phase II: 23% RE share in TPES and 35% RE in ASEAN power capacity by 2025
  • Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge: tripling RE capacity globally to 11,000 GW by 2030
  • APEC aspirational target: 45% energy intensity reduction by 2035 (Philippines reaches this in 2028 under CES)

NREP 2020-2040

The National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) 2020-2040, adopted on 19 July 2022, is the DOE’s long-term program to achieve these targets. It established the institutional framework for managing RE development and serves as the umbrella for the policy mechanisms listed below. An updated NREP 2023-2050 is planned for promulgation. See National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) 2020-2040 .

RE contract portfolio (as of September 2023): 1,141 RE service contracts awarded, 121.0 GW potential capacity, 5.7 GW installed. Variable RE (solar and wind) accounts for 88.7% of potential [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. II, p.40, 2023].

Enabling Mechanisms

Key programs and policies driving RE deployment:

Research