Power Generation Mix (2022 Baseline)
The 2022 power generation mix is the baseline against which PEP 2023-2050 scenario trajectories are measured. Coal dominates at nearly 60 percent; combined renewable energy (geothermal + hydro + solar + wind + biomass) accounts for approximately 22 percent of power generation. Natural gas, the only non-coal fossil fuel of significant scale, is on an accelerating decline due to the exhaustion of the Malampaya gas field [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, pp.53–54, 2023].
Installed Capacity (2022)
Total grid installed capacity: 28,258 MW — up 1,376 MW (+5.1%) from 26,882 MW in 2021. New commercial operations in 2022: 759 MW coal, 279 MW natural gas, 350 MW RE (mostly biomass and solar) [PDP 2023-2050, Section 1.2, pp.15–16, 2023].
| Technology | Installed Capacity (MW) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Coal | 12,428 | 44.0% |
| Oil-based | 3,834 | 13.6% |
| Natural gas | 3,732 | 13.2% |
| Hydro | 3,745 | 13.3% |
| Solar | 1,530 | 5.4% |
| Geothermal | 1,952 | 6.9% |
| Biomass | 611 | 2.2% |
| Wind | 427 | 1.5% |
| RE subtotal | 8,264 | 29.2% |
| Energy Storage Systems (ESS) | 156 | — |
| Total | 28,258 | 100% |
[PDP 2023-2050, Figures 4–5, pp.15–16, 2023]
Note: ESS (156 MW) is tracked separately from the installed capacity total for the first time in the PDP 2023-2050, reflecting the growing role of battery storage in the grid mix.
Generation Output (2022)
Total gross generation: 111.5 TWh (+5.1% from 106.1 TWh in 2021)
| Source | Share | Generation (TWh) | Change vs 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 59.6% | 66.4 | — |
| Natural gas | 16.0% | 17.9 | — |
| Geothermal | 9.3% | 10.4 | — |
| Hydro | 9.0% | 10.1 | — |
| Solar + Wind + Biomass | 3.7% | 4.2 | — |
| Oil-based | 2.3% | 2.5 | — |
| Total | 100% | 111.5 | +5.1% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.53, 2023]
Combined RE (geothermal + hydro + solar + wind + biomass) = approximately 22% of total generation — the 2022 baseline from which the 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040 RE targets must be reached. (Note: RE’s share of TPES is 32.6%, a distinct metric that includes biomass used directly for cooking and heat.) See Renewable Energy Targets 2023-2050 .
Fuel Input to Power Plants (2022)
Total fuel input: 32.7 MTOE (+3.7% from 31.6 MTOE in 2021)
| Fuel | Input (MTOE) | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Coal | 17.1 | 52.3% |
| RE (geothermal + hydro + solar + wind + biomass) | 12.2 | 37.3% |
| Natural gas | 2.5 | 7.7% |
| Oil-based | 0.9 | 2.7% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.54, 2023]
Coal input grew 2.3% year-on-year with the commissioning of GNPower Dinginin Unit 2 in October 2022. Combined RE fuel input held constant at 12.2 MTOE: geothermal dipped 2.4%; hydro rose 9.8% (La Niña rainfall bonus); aggregated solar, wind, and biomass rose 10.1%.
Malampaya Gas Field Decline
Natural gas for power generation fell 6.3% to 2.5 MTOE in 2022. The root cause is the depletion of the Malampaya gas field:
- The Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the Ilijan power plant expired on 5 June 2022
- Total natural gas production fell 7.4% to 2.6 MTOE (112.2 BSCF)
- Condensate output also weakened due to the field’s declining viability [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.54, 2023]
Malampaya’s decline removes approximately 16% of current generation capacity from the dispatchable baseload supply stack over the near term, directly motivating the government’s urgency around offshore wind, nuclear, and accelerated RE build-out in the CES scenarios. See Offshore Wind (OSW) and Nuclear Energy Program (Philippines) .
Domestic Oil Refining
The Philippines has one operational domestic oil refinery — Petron Corporation’s Bataan Refinery in Limay, Bataan:
- Capacity: 180,000 barrels per day (bpd)
- Can supply approximately 40% of total domestic fuel requirements
- Output in 2022: 5.6 MTOE (43.8 million barrels) — up 52.0% from 3.7 MTOE (28.8 MMB) in 2021, due to the resumption of full operations and favorable refining margins [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.52, 2023]
Diesel dominated refinery output (41.9% share), followed by gasoline (25.2%), jet fuel, LPG, and kerosene.
Installed RE Capacity vs Awarded Potential (2022)
The gap between installed capacity and awarded project potential shows the scale of the RE build-out opportunity:
| RE Source | Installed Capacity (MW) | Awarded Potential (MW) |
|---|---|---|
| Hydro | 3,745 | 12,272.5 (362 projects) |
| Solar | 1,530 | 21,413.6 (156 projects) |
| Wind | 427 | 45,631.0 (21 projects) |
| Geothermal | — | 870.6 (24 projects) |
| Biomass | 611 | 186.2 additional (28 projects) |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, pp.55–56, 2023]
Wind’s awarded potential of 45,631 MW substantially exceeds the 19 GW and 50 GW CES targets for offshore wind, signaling that resource availability is not the constraint — grid infrastructure and financing are. See Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) and Clean Energy Finance Framework .
Electricity Sales and Peak Demand Forecast (2023–2050)
Source: PDP 2023-2050 CEM using PLEXOS® least-cost optimization. Projections derived by grid (Luzon/Visayas/Mindanao) via bottom-up sectoral disaggregation (household, commercial, industrial, other). Key macroeconomic assumptions: GDP 6.5–8% (2024–2028) per NEDA-DBCC; PHP 52/USD; crude oil $70–90/bbl; 100% household electrification by 2028; 50% EV fleet penetration by 2040 (CES only) [PDP 2023-2050, Tables 25–28, 2025].
Electricity Sales (select years, Table 26):
| Year | REF (GWh) | CES (GWh) | CES Luzon | CES Visayas | CES Mindanao |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (actual) | 91,333 | 91,333 | 67,536 | 11,866 | 11,931 |
| 2030 | 140,459 | 141,039 | 101,825 | 19,853 | 19,361 |
| 2040 | 249,186 | 246,816 | 175,005 | 37,539 | 34,272 |
| 2050 | 408,057 | 403,465 | 285,619 | 62,847 | 54,999 |
AAGR 2022–2050: 5.4% (CES); 5.3% (REF). By 2050 Luzon maintains 70.8% share; Visayas 15.6%; Mindanao 13.6%.
Peak Demand (select years, Table 28):
| Year | Luzon (MW) | Visayas (MW) | Mindanao (MW) | Philippines (MW) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (actual) | 12,113 | 2,316 | 2,167 | 16,596 |
| 2030 | 18,038 | 3,753 | 3,585 | 25,376 |
| 2040 | 29,984 | 6,634 | 6,140 | 42,759 |
| 2050 | 48,014 | 10,678 | 9,791 | 68,483 |
AAGR 2022–2050: 5.2% overall; Luzon 5.0%, Visayas 5.6%, Mindanao 5.5%. Load factors used: Luzon 70.2%, Visayas 70.2%, Mindanao 68.7% (six-year average 2016–2022).
Policy Context
The 2022 generation mix — coal at 59.6% — is the primary GHG problem the PEP must solve. The coal moratorium (2020) stops new approvals but does not retire existing plants. The Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) is the instrument for voluntary early retirement. See Coal Moratorium (2020) and Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) .