PEP 2023-2050 Investment Requirements
The Philippine Energy Plan 2023-2050 projects total energy sector investment requirements across three scenarios for the period 2023–2050, expressed in Philippine Pesos at 2022 constant prices [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 2, p.28, 2023].
Headline Totals
| Scenario | Total (PhP B) | Total (USD B @ PhP55/USD) | Jobs Created |
|---|---|---|---|
| REF | 19,646.0 | 357.2 | 1,441,999 |
| CES-1 | 27,810.5 | 505.6 | 2,174,185 |
| CES-2 | 31,336.1 | 569.7 | 2,499,984 |
CES-1 is 41.6% higher than REF; CES-2 is 12.7% above CES-1 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.28, 2023].
Upstream Investment (PhP Billion)
| Sector | REF 2023-28 | REF 2029-50 | CES-1 2023-28 | CES-1 2029-50 | CES-2 2023-28 | CES-2 2029-50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil and Gas | 345.66 | 1,978.97 | 345.66 | 1,978.97 | 345.66 | 1,978.97 |
| Coal | 272.75 | 161.51 | 272.75 | 161.51 | 272.75 | 161.51 |
| RE (Pre-Dev) | 6.45 | 28.86 | 7.13 | 21.44 | 7.28 | 22.41 |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 2, p.28, 2023]
Power Sector
By 2028, power capacity additions: REF 18,528 MW (PhP 1,597.9B) / CES-1 18,195 MW (PhP 1,850.8B) / CES-2 19,656 MW (PhP 1,945.3B) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.31, 2023].
From 2029–2050: REF 104,180 MW (PhP 7,029.6B) / CES-1 111,486 MW (PhP 9,852.2B) / CES-2 113,277 MW (PhP 13,282.2B) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.31, 2023].
BESS investment from 2029–2050: REF PhP 56.4B vs CES-1 PhP 744.1B vs CES-2 PhP 899.9B — reflecting the storage requirements of high-OSW scenarios [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 2, p.28, 2023].
Electric Vehicles and Charging Stations
The largest CES-vs-REF divergence is in EV and EVCS investment [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.31-32, 2023]:
| Period | Segment | REF | CES-1 / CES-2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-2028 | EVs | PhP 297.0B | PhP 1,717.3B |
| 2023-2028 | EVCS | PhP 17.8B | PhP 66.4B |
| 2029-2050 | EVs | PhP 5,829.3B | PhP 11,072.6B |
| 2029-2050 | EVCS | PhP 1,830.8B | PhP 288.8B |
The REF targets 10% EV fleet share by 2050; CES targets 50% (under CREVI ) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.31, 2023].
Employment Generation
RE power plant construction is the dominant job source under all scenarios [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 3, p.28, 2023]:
| Sector | REF | CES-1 | CES-2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| RE upstream pre-development | 49,411 | 65,709 | 115,173 |
| RE power plants | 1,152,533 | 1,437,139 | 1,688,331 |
| EVs | 117,243 | 431,681 | 431,681 |
| BESS | 23,194 | 139,898 | 156,838 |
Government Role
The DOE envisions a facilitating role — policy support mechanisms to attract private sector and PPP financing. Investment projections exclude transmission infrastructure (see Transmission Development Plan (TDP) for the Transmission Development Plan). The CEFI Roadmap / CEFIM Programme and the Clean Energy Finance Framework are the primary vehicles for mobilizing this investment [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.28, 2023].
Power Generation Investment by Technology (Vol. II Detail)
Vol. II Table 57 provides technology-level breakdowns for power generation investment at 2022 constant prices [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. II, Table 57, 2023]:
Capacity Additions (MW)
| Technology | REF 2023-28 | CES-1 2023-28 | CES-2 2023-28 | REF 2029-50 | CES-1 2029-50 | CES-2 2029-50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 2,305 | 2,305 | 2,305 | — | — | — |
| Natural Gas | 2,413 | 2,413 | 2,413 | 19,468 | 13,576 | 16,444 |
| Oil-based | 20 | 20 | 20 | — | — | — |
| Nuclear (Other Technologies) | — | — | — | — | 4,800 | 4,800 |
| Renewables (all) | 13,791 | 13,458 | 14,919 | 84,712 | 93,110 | 92,033 |
| — Biomass | 42 | 122 | 122 | 50 | 16 | 16 |
| — Geothermal | 425 | 425 | 425 | 930 | 580 | 580 |
| — Solar | 9,328 | 6,231 | 6,231 | 45,620 | 46,934 | 27,890 |
| — Hydropower | 295 | 770 | 770 | 9,970 | 6,030 | 5,410 |
| — Onshore Wind | 3,700 | 3,910 | 5,371 | 21,342 | 22,050 | 10,037 |
| — Offshore Wind | — | 2,000 | 2,000 | 6,800 | 17,500 | 48,100 |
| BESS (excl. from total) | 2,080 | 2,080 | 2,080 | 1,544 | 19,779 | 22,426 |
| Total (excl. BESS) | 18,528 | 18,195 | 19,656 | 104,180 | 111,486 | 113,277 |
Investment Cost (PhP Billion @ 2022 prices)
| Technology | REF 2023-28 | CES-1 2023-28 | CES-2 2023-28 | REF 2029-50 | CES-1 2029-50 | CES-2 2029-50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 350.55 | 334.38 | 334.38 | — | — | — |
| Natural Gas | 253.42 | 253.42 | 253.42 | 1,447.04 | 977.32 | 1,201.88 |
| Oil-based | 2.18 | 2.18 | 2.18 | — | — | — |
| Nuclear | — | — | — | — | 1,738.60 | 1,738.60 |
| Renewables (all) | 928.13 | 1,197.25 | 1,291.68 | 5,526.23 | 6,392.23 | 9,441.83 |
| — Offshore Wind | — | 329.37 | 329.37 | 964.78 | 2,483.18 | 6,924.06 |
| BESS | 63.60 | 63.60 | 63.60 | 56.35 | 744.05 | 899.88 |
| Total | 1,597.87 | 1,850.82 | 1,945.26 | 7,029.62 | 9,852.20 | 13,282.18 |
Key CES divergence in generation: OSW investment in 2029-2050 reaches PhP964.78B (REF, 6.8 GW) vs PhP2,483B (CES-1, 17.5 GW) vs PhP6,924B (CES-2, 48.1 GW) — by far the largest single-technology investment differential across scenarios.
CES-1 total generation investment is 35.6% higher than REF (PhP11.7T vs PhP8.6T); CES-2 is 76.5% higher than REF (PhP15.2T vs PhP8.6T), driven almost entirely by offshore wind [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. II, p.110, 2023].
Power Sector Employment by Technology (Vol. II Detail)
Vol. II Table 58 provides technology-level job projections for 2023-2050 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. II, Table 58, 2023]:
| Technology | Construction Jobs/MW | O&M Jobs/MW | REF 2023-28 | CES-1 2023-28 | REF 2029-50 | CES-1 2029-50 | CES-2 2029-50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 2.50 | 0.65 | 7,261 | 7,261 | — | — | — |
| Natural Gas | 2.73 | 0.13 | 6,901 | 6,901 | 55,678 | 38,827 | 47,030 |
| Nuclear | 5.10 | — | — | — | — | 24,480 | 24,480 |
| Solar | 10.83 | 1.70 | 116,880 | 78,074 | 571,619 | 588,083 | 588,083 |
| Hydropower | 8.33 | 0.55 | 2,620 | 6,838 | 88,534 | 53,546 | 48,041 |
| Onshore Wind | 4.83 | 0.21 | 18,633 | 19,691 | 107,478 | 111,044 | 50,546 |
| Offshore Wind | 12.28 | 4.82 | — | 34,204 | 116,292 | 299,282 | 822,597 |
| BESS | 4.90 | 1.50 | 13,312 | 13,312 | 9,882 | 126,586 | 143,526 |
| Total | 177,621 | 179,699 | 974,912 | 1,257,440 | 1,501,274 |
Headline jobs by scenario (2023-2050 total): REF ~1.15M / CES-1 ~1.44M / CES-2 ~1.68M
OSW is the dominant job creator under CES-2: its 12.28 construction jobs/MW × 48.1 GW (2029-2050) yields 822,597 jobs in the long-term period alone — more than the entire REF long-term portfolio combined [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. II, pp.109-110, 2023].