Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) — Philippines

The Philippines’ Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is the country’s formal climate commitment under the Paris Agreement (PA) — the global climate regime agreed at COP21 on 12 December 2015. The NDC sets out GHG reduction targets and guides the country’s long-term development plan toward a climate-resilient and low-carbon future [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, p.7, 2023].

Initial NDC Submission (April 2021)

The Philippines submitted its first NDC on 15 April 2021, committing to a 75% aggregate GHG reduction from the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario for the period 2020–2030. The BAU is projected from the 2010 National GHG Inventory at an average annual growth rate of 6% [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, p.9, 2023].

The conditional commitment is framed as an obligation on developed countries per Article 4 of the Paris Agreement. The DOE explicitly calls this “climate justice” — the Philippines’ share of global emissions is small, but it bears disproportionate climate risk [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, p.14, 2023].

The Philippines has no net-zero target within the planning horizon. The NDC expressly states that CES compliance must not result in additional energy cost burdens on consumers [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, p.14, 2023].

Prior to the PA, the Philippines submitted an Intended NDC (INDC) in October 2015 with a 70% reduction target by 2030 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, footnote 3, p.9, 2023].

Energy Sector NDC Target (2020–2030)

Aggregate NDC reduction target for the energy sector (2020–2030): 45.9 MtCO₂e (combined conditional and unconditional) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, p.11, 2023].

The NDC target is assessed against the energy sector (excluding transport, which is DOTr’s mandate) and the transport sector separately.

Actual achievement 2020–2022:

• GHG reduction: 52.9 MtCO₂e — 15% above the NDC 2020–2030 target in just three years
• Adding RE avoidance: total contribution reaches 197.1 MtCO₂e — 312% of the NDC target

See GHG Emissions — Energy Sector (2022 Baseline) for sector-by-sector breakdowns (Table 3).

Energy Sector Mitigation PAMs

The DOE’s climate change mitigation Policies and Measures (PAMs) for the energy sector’s NDC contribution [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, p.7, 2023]:

1. Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC) measures across all sectors
2. Acceleration of RE deployment
3. HELE (High-Efficiency Low-Emission) coal technologies
4. New and emerging clean technologies (nuclear, hydrogen)
5. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration in transport
6. Natural gas utilization in industry and commercial sectors
7. Grid modernization / smart grid systems

These PAMs are the supply-side and demand-side drivers built into all three PEP scenarios; the difference between REF and CES is the pace and scale of these interventions.

NDC and Adaptation: LCCDR Framework

The Philippines’ NDC approach treats climate change adaptation as the anchor strategy; mitigation is pursued as a function of adaptation — not as a standalone objective. This is enshrined in the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (NFSCC) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, p.15, 2023].

The Low Carbon and Climate- and Disaster-Resilient (LCCDR) Energy Sector Framework (Figure 5 of PEP Vol. III) operationalizes this approach by identifying: finance, technology, capacity building, laws/policies, and institution/stakeholder engagement as enabling factors for both GHG reduction and climate/disaster resilience. See LCCDR Energy Sector Framework .

Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV)

EO 174 (November 2014) institutionalized the Philippine Greenhouse Gas Inventory Management and Reporting System (PGHGIMRS). It mandates the DOE to lead the GHG inventory of the energy sector — covering combustion of fossil fuels in stationary sources, mobile sources, and fugitive emissions [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, p.15, 2023].

The inventory serves as the basis for tracking NDC progress and is reported through the UNFCCC’s Biennial Update Report (BUR) and Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) processes.

Other MRV tools used by DOE:

• National Grid Emission Factor (NGEF) — DOE Department Order 2011-08-0009; provides per-grid standard carbon intensity of electricity (tCO₂/MWh) for computing GHG avoidance from CDM and RE projects. See GHG Emissions — Energy Sector (2022 Baseline) .
• Philippine Emissions Pathways Calculator (PEPC) — Joint DOE + UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) project. Interactive, open-source model covering all 7 GHG inventory sectors (energy, transport, agriculture/livestock/rice, FOLU, IPPU/cement, waste/wastewater). Completed and handed to DOE on 27 October 2023. Intended for adoption by the NDC-Technical Working Group to support NDC implementation tracking and policy scenario analysis [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, pp.21–22, 2023].

UNFCCC Reporting Obligations. The Philippines must submit three periodic reports to the UNFCCC [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, p.22, 2023]:

1. National Communication (NC) — comprehensive national report per UNFCCC Art. 12; covers GHG inventory, vulnerability/adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer, education/capacity
2. Biennial Update Report (BUR) — interim update of NC; last required submission was 2024 (then superseded by BTR under the Enhanced Transparency Framework/ETF)
3. Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) — comprehensive ETF report starting 2024; all Parties submit every 2 years; common templates and timeframes with flexibility for developing countries

The CCC leads and coordinates all UNFCCC submissions; the DOE leads the energy sector GHG inventory and energy-sector inputs to the NDC, BUR, BTR, and National Adaptation Plan (NAP).

PEP 2050 GHG Projections vs NDC BAU

[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Tables 4–5, pp.11–13, 2023]

The Philippines will not achieve net-zero under any scenario. However, CES-1 and CES-2 enable the energy sector to offset its own cumulative emissions (reduction + avoidance exceeds total sector emissions) by 2037 and 2033 respectively.

Investment requirement for NDC compliance: USD 238.70 billion across RE, BESS, gas, and nuclear [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, p.14, 2023]. This is the core of the Philippines’ climate justice framing: the conditional 72.3% target requires Annex II countries to provide this financing.

See GHG Emissions — Energy Sector (2022 Baseline) for historical GHG data and scenario trajectories.