GHG Emissions — Energy Sector (2022 Baseline)
Total energy sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reached 135.7 MtCO₂e in 2022 — a 4.0 percent increase from 130.4 MtCO₂e in 2021, as post-pandemic economic activity returned emissions to pre-pandemic levels. This baseline is the reference point for the Philippines’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and the emission reduction trajectories in the PEP 2023-2050 CES scenarios [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, pp.58–62, 2023].
GHG values use IPCC AR5 Global Warming Potentials and 2006 IPCC Guidelines (Tier 1) emission factors.
GHG Emissions by Sector (2022)
| Sector | 2021 (MtCO₂e) | 2022 (MtCO₂e) | Share 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity (power generation) | 73.9 | 76.3 | 56.2% | +3.3% |
| Transport | 31.5 | 35.4 | 26.1% | +12.3% |
| Industry | 12.5 | 12.9 | 9.5% | +3.5% |
| Other sectors (services + HH + agri) | 12.1 | 9.9 | 7.3% | −18.6% |
| Energy / refining losses | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.9% | +186.6% |
| Total | 130.4 | 135.7 | 100% | +4.0% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 4, 2023]
Power generation is the dominant emitter at 56.2%, driven by coal-fired plants which generated 59.6% of electricity in 2022. Transport is the fastest-growing end-use emitter: full seating capacities restored for public transport, lifted mobility restrictions, and resumed tourism pushed transport GHG up 12.3% in a single year — directly motivating the EV investment emphasis in the CES scenarios.
GHG Emissions by Fuel (2022)
| Fuel | 2021 (MtCO₂e) | 2022 (MtCO₂e) | Share 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 74.0 | 75.2 | 55.4% | +1.5% |
| Oil | 49.8 | 54.4 | 40.1% | +9.2% |
| Gas | 6.6 | 6.1 | 4.5% | −7.4% |
| Total | 130.4 | 135.7 | 100% | +4.0% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 5, 2023]
Coal at 55.4% of total emissions is the primary target of decarbonization policy (coal moratorium, ETM). Oil’s 9.2% increase reflects transport demand recovery and makes oil the fastest-growing GHG source in 2022 by percentage. Gas emissions fell 7.4% due to Malampaya field decline.
GHG Avoidance from Mitigation Measures (2022)
The Philippines’ NDC commits to energy sector mitigation. Measures in place in 2022 avoided 18.1 MtCO₂e — equivalent to 11.77% of the hypothetical unmitigated emission level of 153.8 MtCO₂e [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 6, 2023].
| Mitigation Measure | 2021 (ktCO₂e) | 2022 (ktCO₂e) | % of Hypothetical |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demand-side total | 11,703 | 13,630 | 8.86% |
| Efficiency in electricity consumption (EEC) | 3,373 | 3,867 | 2.51% |
| Efficiency in fossil fuel consumption (EEF) | 6,381 | 7,397 | 4.81% |
| Biofuel blending | 1,949 | 2,366 | 1.54% |
| Supply-side total | 4,253 | 4,468 | 2.91% |
| RE in power generation (fuel diversification) | 4,253 | 4,468 | 2.91% |
| Total avoidance | 15,996 | 18,098 | 11.77% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 6, 2023]
Total avoidance grew 13.4% year-on-year. Demand-side efficiency gains (EEC + EEF) account for 76% of total avoided emissions. RE in power generation — despite coal’s dominance — still avoided 4.5 MtCO₂e by displacing what would otherwise have been additional fossil fuel generation.
Key Emission Intensity Indicators (2022)
| Indicator | Value | Change vs 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Carbon intensity of energy supply | 2.2 tCO₂e/TOE | Constant |
| GHG intensity of power generation | 0.68 tCO₂e/MWh | −1.8% |
| GHG per unit GDP | 0.68 tCO₂e/PhP100k | −3.3% |
| GHG per capita | 1.2 tCO₂e/person | +2.7% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.62, 2023]
GHG intensity of power generation fell 1.8% — a positive signal showing that RE growth is incrementally reducing the grid’s carbon content. GHG per unit GDP also improved (-3.3%), indicating that economic growth is partially decoupled from emissions growth.
PEP Projections by Scenario
Under REF, total GHG emissions are projected to reach 270.09 MtCO₂e by 2050 — approximately double the 2022 baseline — as fossil fuel demand grows with the economy. Under CES-1, emissions reach 199.61 MtCO₂e and under CES-2, 186.05 MtCO₂e by 2050 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Table 5, 2023].
CES-1 vs REF Gap (2050)
Demand and supply-side mitigation under CES-1 reduces GHG by 70.5 MtCO₂e below the REF level by 2050. The transformation sector (power generation) accounts for 69.0% of this gap, driven by RE and nuclear displacing coal and gas [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.88, 2023].
By fuel:
- Natural gas reduction: −33.2 MtCO₂e (47.1% of gap) — gas GHG falls from 58.0 MtCO₂e (REF) to 24.8 MtCO₂e (CES-1)
- Oil reduction: −19.9 MtCO₂e — demand savings from EV penetration
- Coal reduction: −17.3 MtCO₂e — OSW and RE displacement
Cumulative GHG Avoidance and Reduction (2023–2050)
| Scenario | Cumulative Avoidance (MtCO₂e) | % of Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| REF (current-policy mitigation) | 1,200.2 | — |
| CES-1 (19 GW OSW + nuclear) | 2,173.5 | 31.6% of baseline |
| CES-2 (50 GW OSW + nuclear) | 2,458.2 | 35.8% of baseline |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.102, 2023]
The REF figure of 1,200.2 MtCO₂e includes existing mitigation measures: 50% RE generation target by 2040, B5 biodiesel from 2026, and 10% EV penetration by 2040. The gap between REF and CES-1 (973.3 MtCO₂e cumulative) is driven primarily by OSW, nuclear, and higher EV penetration (50% vs 10%).
CFPP Retirement Contribution
Voluntary retirement of CFPPs contributes a cumulative 6.1–8.1 MtCO₂e (CES-1 vs CES-2) of the total GHG reduction — a relatively small share. The dominant driver is fuel substitution in dispatch (RE/nuclear output displacing gas and coal generation), not plant retirement itself [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.102, 2023]. See Voluntary CFPP Retirement and Repurposing .
Carbon Per Capita and Carbon Intensity Trajectories
Carbon Per Capita (tCO₂e/person)
| Year | REF | CES-1 | CES-2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (actual) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 2050 (projected) | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.103, 2023]
Carbon Intensity to TPES (tCO₂e/TOE)
| Year | REF | CES-1 | CES-2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (actual) | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 2050 (projected) | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.103, 2023]
The declining carbon intensity across all scenarios reflects the structural shift in TPES toward RE and nuclear. CES-1 achieves a 27% reduction in carbon intensity by 2050 vs. 2022; CES-2 achieves 32%.
Clean Fuel Share in TPES
Clean energy sources (RE excluding traditional biomass for cooking, plus nuclear) as a share of TPES reach [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.103, 2023]:
- CES-1 2050: 46.7%
- CES-2 2050: 48.3%
This demonstrates that meeting the 50%+ RE target in power generation alone is insufficient to transition the overall energy system to clean fuels — the transport and industrial sectors (which consume oil and coal directly) require additional mitigation effort beyond the power sector.
See Reference Scenario (REF) and Clean Energy Scenarios (CES-1 and CES-2) for full scenario projections.
Historical Energy Sector GHG Inventory (1994–2020)
The DOE GHG inventory follows 2006 IPCC Guidelines (Volumes 1 and 2), using two complementary approaches: the Reference Approach (top-down, using aggregate fuel supply data) and the Sectoral Approach (bottom-up, using final energy consumption data). GWPs use AR5 values (CH₄ = 28; N₂O = 265) for 2015 and 2020 inventories [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, p.16, 2023].
Table 6 — Historical GHG Emissions (GgCO₂e)
| Gas / Source | 1994 | 2000 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO₂ — Energy Industries | 15,458 | 21,127 | 32,803 | 51,415 | 74,183 |
| CO₂ — Manufacturing & Construction | 8,980 | 9,015 | 11,887 | 13,233 | 10,275 |
| CO₂ — Transport | 15,801 | 25,792 | 23,725 | 30,722 | 28,896 |
| CO₂ — Other Sectors | 7,097 | 6,564 | 5,995 | 7,085 | 11,398 |
| CO₂ — Fugitive Emissions | — | — | 14 | 41 | 10 |
| CO₂ Sub-total | 47,335 | 62,499 | 74,425 | 102,496 | 124,763 |
| CH₄ Sub-total | 1,759 | 6,387 | 2,013 | 2,605 | 3,046 |
| N₂O Sub-total | 717 | 784 | 851 | 1,043 | 1,477 |
| Total (Energy Sector) | 50,038 | 69,670 | 77,289 | 106,143 | 129,286 |
| Total (excl. Transport) | 33,923 | 43,732 | 53,117 | 74,895 | 99,854 |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Table 6, p.17, 2023]
Total GHG emissions increased 146.3% from 49,999 GgCO₂e (1994) to 123,145 GgCO₂e (2020) on the CO₂ Reference Approach basis; the Sectoral Approach yields 129,286 GgCO₂e in 2020 — a 21.8% increase from 2015 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, pp.16–18, 2023].
2020 Emissions by Sub-sector (Sectoral Approach)
| Sub-sector | GgCO₂e | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Energy Industries (electricity generation + fuel processing) | 74,512 | 57.6% |
| — of which: electricity generation | 71,197 | 95.6% of energy industries |
| Transport | 29,431 | 22.8% |
| Other Sectors (commercial + residential + agri) | 13,689 | 10.6% |
| Manufacturing & Construction | 11,083 | 8.6% |
| Fugitive Emissions (coal mine CH₄ + oil flaring) | 570 | 0.44% |
| Total | 129,286 | 100% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, pp.18–19, 2023]
Electricity generation alone (71,197 GgCO₂e) accounts for 55.1% of total energy sector GHG — making power generation the primary decarbonization lever. Road transport (26,215 GgCO₂e) is 89.1% of the transport sub-total. Cement is the largest single industrial emitter within manufacturing.
National Grid Emission Factor (NGEF)
The NGEF, established under DOE Department Order 2011-08-0009, quantifies the carbon intensity of grid-connected electricity generation. It serves as the CDM reference for energy projects and the benchmark for computing GHG avoidance from grid-connected RE [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Section B, pp.19–21, 2023].
The Combined Margin (CM) is the weighted average of the Operating Margin (OM — plants displaced by the CDM project) and Build Margin (BM — prospective plants affected).
Table 7 — NGEF by Grid (tCO₂/MWh)
| Parameter | Luzon-Visayas 2015–17 | Luzon-Visayas 2019–21 | Mindanao 2015–17 | Mindanao 2019–21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Margin (OM) | 0.7122 | 0.6935 | 0.7797 | 0.8522 |
| Build Margin (BM) | 0.5979 | 0.7426 | 0.8045 | 0.7824 |
| CM (wind/solar projects) | 0.6836 | 0.7058 | 0.7859 | 0.8348 |
| CM (other projects) | 0.6550 | 0.7181 | 0.7921 | 0.8173 |
Source: DOE Power Statistics as of 2021 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Table 7, p.20, 2023]
The Mindanao grid has a consistently higher carbon intensity than Luzon-Visayas — reflecting greater fossil fuel dependence in Mindanao’s generation mix. In the Luzon-Visayas Grid, the OM fell slightly (−0.019 tCO₂/MWh) while the BM rose, resulting in a modest CM increase. The NGEF is cited in computing the RE GHG avoidance figures used in the NDC assessment.
NDC Assessment 2020–2030 (Actual Performance)
The Philippines’ NDC commits to a total reduction of 45.9 MtCO₂e for the period 2020–2030 (combined conditional + unconditional targets). Actual performance vs NDC BAU projections [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Table 3, 2023]:
| Sector | NDC BAU 2022 (MtCO₂e) | Actual 2022 | Reduction | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transformation (power) | 94.10 | 77.44 | 16.66 | 17.70% |
| Industry | 17.69 | 12.94 | 4.75 | 26.84% |
| Other sectors | 13.69 | 9.88 | 3.81 | 27.86% |
| Total (ex-transport) | 125.48 | 100.26 | 25.22 | 20.10% |
| Transport | 45.60 | 35.42 | 10.18 | 22.33% |
| Grand Total | 171.08 | 135.68 | 35.40 | 20.69% |
Cumulative 2020–2022 reduction: 52.9 MtCO₂e — 15% above the NDC target of 45.9 MtCO₂e [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, p.11, 2023].
When RE GHG avoidance is combined with the reduction, the energy sector’s 2020–2022 total contribution rises to 197.1 MtCO₂e — approximately 3× (312%) the NDC target [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, p.12, 2023].
Projected GHG 2023–2050 by Scenario (Cumulative)
| Scenario | Total 2023–2050 (MtCO₂e) | vs. REF |
|---|---|---|
| REF | 5,555.44 | — |
| CES-1 | 4,564.40 | −991.04 (−17.8%) |
| CES-2 | 4,282.10 | −1,273.34 (−22.9%) |
Energy sector only (ex-transport): REF 3,989.66 / CES-1 3,230.58 (−759 or −19%) / CES-2 2,948.53 (−1,041 or −26%) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, Table 5, 2023].
Offset milestone: combining reduction + avoidance, the energy sector can offset its own cumulative emissions by 2033 (CES-2) and 2037 (CES-1); the REF scenario never achieves this [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, p.13, 2023].
NDC BAU cumulative (2020–2050): >8,700 MtCO₂e. PEP scenarios reduce total emissions by 55–66% vs this BAU, equivalent to 4,800–5,800 MtCO₂e [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, p.13, 2023].
Investment required for CES compliance: USD 238.70 billion (RE capacity, BESS, gas, nuclear) — the DOE frames this as a climate justice obligation on developed countries per Article 4 of the Paris Agreement [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. III, p.14, 2023]. See Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) — Philippines .