Energy Situationer 2022
The Energy Situationer is the PEP 2023-2050’s baseline assessment of the Philippine energy system as of 2022. It establishes the starting-point conditions against which all scenarios and projections are measured. The year 2022 was a post-pandemic rebound year: GDP expanded by 7.6 percent — the fastest in four decades — yet energy demand grew at a more moderate 2.4 percent, reflecting efficiency gains and structural shifts [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.47, 2023].
Summary of Key Indicators (2022)
| Indicator | Value | Change vs 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 7.6% | Highest in 4 decades |
| Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) | 35.9 MTOE | +2.4% |
| Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) | 61.6 MTOE | +4.7% |
| Net energy imports | 31.1 MTOE | +7.6% |
| Energy self-sufficiency | 49.4% | −1.3 pp from 50.8% |
| Gross power generation | 111.5 TWh | +5.1% |
| Fuel input to power plants | 32.7 MTOE | +3.7% |
| Total GHG emissions | 135.7 MtCO₂e | +4.0% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, pp.47–62, 2023]
TFEC: Demand Structure
TFEC grew to 35.9 MTOE in 2022. Transport is the largest consuming sector; biomass and petroleum together account for over 70 percent of fuel demand.
By sector:
| Sector | Share | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Transport | 34.4% | +12.2% |
| Households | 28.8% | +1.3% |
| Industry | 19.8% | +4.2% |
| Services | 12.4% | −8.2% |
| Agriculture | 3.6% | −32.0% |
| Non-energy use | 1.1% | −21.5% |
By fuel:
| Fuel | Share |
|---|---|
| Petroleum/oil products | 50.9% |
| Electricity | 21.9% |
| Biomass | 20.1% |
| Coal | 5.4% |
| Biofuels | ~1.6% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, pp.47–52, 2023]
See Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC) for sector-by-sector detail.
Power Generation Mix
Total generation: 111.5 TWh. Coal dominated at 59.6%; combined RE (geothermal, hydro, solar, wind, biomass) reached approximately 22 percent of generation (note: RE’s share of TPES is 32.6%, a separate metric).
| Source | Share | Generation (TWh) |
|---|---|---|
| Coal | 59.6% | 66.4 |
| Natural gas | 16.0% | 17.9 |
| Geothermal | 9.3% | 10.4 |
| Hydro | 9.0% | 10.1 |
| Solar + Wind + Biomass | 3.7% | 4.2 |
| Oil-based | 2.3% | 2.5 |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.53, 2023]
Malampaya natural gas production fell 7.4% in 2022 following the expiry of the Ilijan GSPA on 5 June 2022 — the primary driver of the government’s urgency around RE and nuclear alternatives. See Power Generation Mix (2022 Baseline) .
Primary Energy Supply and Import Dependency
TPES reached 61.6 MTOE; net imports accounted for 31.1 MTOE (50.6% of TPES). Energy self-sufficiency slipped to 49.4% — the second consecutive annual decline. Oil (32.2%), coal (31.0%), and RE+biomass (32.6%) each held roughly equal shares of the primary energy mix.
Top import sources: Indonesia (43.6% of all energy imports, overwhelmingly coal), South Korea and Singapore (finished petroleum), Middle East (crude oil). See Energy Import Dependency .
GHG Emissions
Total energy sector GHG emissions reached 135.7 MtCO₂e in 2022, up 4.0%. Power generation alone accounted for 56.2% (76.3 MtCO₂e). Transport was the fastest-growing emitter among end-use sectors (+12.3%). Mitigation measures avoided 18.1 MtCO₂e (11.8% of the hypothetical unmitigated level). See GHG Emissions — Energy Sector (2022 Baseline) .
Energy Efficiency Indicators
Economy-wide energy intensity improved by 2.6% to 3.1 TOE per million pesos of real GDP. Per capita energy use rose to 0.6 TOE/person and electricity to 1.0 MWh/person as pandemic restrictions lifted. RA 11285 (Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act of 2019) is the governing legislation for energy intensity improvement targets. See Energy Intensity and Efficiency Indicators .
Strategic Significance for the PEP
The 2022 situationer establishes why the CES scenarios differ sharply from REF:
- Coal at 59.6% of generation must fall to meet the >50% RE target by 2050
- Malampaya’s decline removes 16% of current generation capacity over the next decade with no domestic replacement without OSW, nuclear, or massive RE build-out
- Transport’s energy demand at 34.4% of TFEC and 12.3% GHG growth rate makes EVs the single largest energy transition lever in the demand side
- Self-sufficiency at 49.4% and slipping — the ARC Framework’s “A” (affordable) pillar depends on reducing import exposure