Energy Intensity and Efficiency Indicators
Energy intensity measures how much energy is consumed per unit of economic output (GDP). A declining energy intensity means the economy is becoming more energy-efficient — producing more GDP per unit of energy consumed. This is a core SDG 7.3 indicator and the primary metric for evaluating the impact of RA 11285 (Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act of 2019) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.60, 2023].
2022 Economy-Wide Indicators
| Indicator | 2021 | 2022 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy intensity | 3.2 TOE/MPhP | 3.1 TOE/MPhP | −2.6% |
| Electricity intensity | 5.7 Wh/PhP | 5.6 Wh/PhP | −2.3% |
| Oil intensity | 7.9 bbl/PhP | 8.1 bbl/PhP | +3.4% |
| Energy-to-GDP elasticity | 0.7 | 0.6 | — |
| Electricity-to-GDP elasticity | — | 0.7 | — |
| Oil-to-GDP elasticity | — | 1.5 | — |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, pp.60–61, 2023]
Energy intensity improved 2.6%, consistent with the GDP growth rate (7.6%) substantially outpacing TFEC growth (2.4%). Oil intensity increased 3.4% — the exception — as the transport sector’s energy demand recovery was oil-led [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.60, 2023].
Elasticity Interpretation
An energy-to-GDP elasticity of 0.6 means that a 1% increase in GDP corresponded to only a 0.6% increase in energy demand in 2022. This is a structurally favorable ratio. Oil’s elasticity of 1.5 is the outlier — oil demand is growing faster than the economy, primarily due to transport sector recovery [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.61, 2023].
Sectoral Energy Intensity (2022)
| Sector | Change in Energy Intensity | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Services (incl. transport) | −3.4% | 1.5 TOE/MPhP |
| Industry | −2.4% | — |
| Households | −6.5% | — |
| Agriculture | −32.3% | — |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.60, 2023]
Agriculture’s 32.3% intensity drop is misleading — it reflects a 32% decline in farm energy consumption rather than genuine efficiency gains, driven by adverse weather and livestock disease (ASF) impacts in 2022.
Per Capita Energy Indicators (2022)
| Indicator | 2022 Value | Change vs 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Energy per capita | 0.6 TOE/person | +3.4% |
| Electricity per capita | 1.0 MWh/person | +3.8% |
| Oil per capita | 1.4 bbl/person | +9.9% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.61, 2023]
Rising per capita energy consumption reflects restored economic activity and improved energy access — household electrification reached 96.2% as of December 2022 — rather than declining efficiency.
GHG Emission Intensity (2022)
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Carbon intensity of energy supply | 2.2 tCO₂e/TOE | Constant |
| GHG intensity of power generation | 0.68 tCO₂e/MWh | −1.8% |
| GHG per unit GDP | 0.68 tCO₂e/PhP100k | −3.3% |
| GHG per capita | 1.2 tCO₂e/person | +2.7% |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.62, 2023]
The 1.8% reduction in GHG intensity of power generation indicates that RE additions to the grid are incrementally decarbonizing electricity supply — but the rate is far below what is needed to meet the 50% RE target by 2040. See Renewable Energy Targets 2023-2050 .
Sectoral Energy Intensity Projections (Table 32)
Energy intensity per end-use sector (in TOE per PhP million of output), with percentage reduction from 2022 baseline [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 32, 2023]:
| Sector | 2022 | REF 2030 | CES 2030 | REF 2050 | CES 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport | 18.16 | 9.90 (−45.5%) | 9.11 (−49.9%) | 1.90 (−89.5%) | 1.66 (−90.9%) |
| Industry | 1.35 | 1.15 (−14.5%) | 1.11 (−17.6%) | 0.76 (−43.3%) | 0.71 (−47.3%) |
| Services | 0.36 | 0.29 (−20.7%) | 0.28 (−23.0%) | 0.17 (−54.1%) | 0.16 (−56.8%) |
| Households | 0.71 | 0.50 (−29.7%) | 0.49 (−30.7%) | 0.22 (−69.6%) | 0.20 (−71.3%) |
| Agriculture | 0.21 | 0.18 (−17.5%) | 0.17 (−20.0%) | 0.14 (−32.3%) | 0.13 (−36.7%) |
Transport shows the largest absolute reduction (−89% to −91% by 2050) driven by EV penetration and fuel shift. Food processing and machinery/equipment sub-sectors show rising intensity under both scenarios — these remain gaps for EEC policy. Cement improves under CES but worsens slightly under REF by 2050 due to construction-led demand growth [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 32, 2023].
Regional and International Benchmarks
ASEAN — APAEC Target (32% intensity reduction by 2025, base 2005)
The Philippines achieved a 30% cumulative intensity reduction from 2005 to 2022 — exceeding the APAEC target in 2023, two years early — and projects a further 4 pp above the target by 2025 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.101, 2023].
APEC — Aspirational Target (45% intensity reduction by 2035, base 2005)
Under the CES, the Philippines breaches the 45% APEC target in 2028 — seven years ahead of the deadline — reaching a 46% reduction [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.101, 2023].
TPES Energy Intensity Improvement Under CES
Supply-side mitigation through large-scale RE deployment and efficiency improvements translates to TPES intensity improvements at [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.98, 2023]:
- 4.0% average annual rate by 2030
- 6.0% average annual rate by 2040
- 4.0% average annual rate by 2050
Legal and Policy Framework
- RA 11285 (Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act of 2019): the governing legislation for energy intensity improvement programs for designated establishments (Designated Establishments, or DEs), government buildings, and transport
- SDG 7.3: global target to double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030
- APAEC 2016-2025 Phase II: ASEAN regional target of 32% intensity reduction from 2005 baseline by 2025
- APEC 45% aspirational target: 45% reduction by 2035 from 2005 baseline
Under the CES scenarios, the PEP 2023-2050 targets a 4–6% per year reduction in energy intensity vs the 2022 level — roughly double the 2.6% improvement achieved in 2022. This requires significant step-change in EEC programs, electrification of transport and industry, and behavioral change [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Overview p.16, 2023]. See Clean Energy Scenarios (CES-1 and CES-2) and Philippine Energy Transition Program (PETP) .
NEECP Sectoral Emissions Avoidance Targets
The National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Plan (NEECP) and Roadmap 2023–2050 sets sector-by-sector GHG avoidance targets through EEC programs [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. II, Table 31, 2023]:
| Sector | Program | ST (2023–24) | MT (2025–28) | LT (2029–50) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | GEMP | 1.87 MtCO₂e | 3.31 MtCO₂e | 25.06 MtCO₂e |
| Commercial | PELP/MEPP | 7.51 MtCO₂e | 13.28 MtCO₂e | 100.50 MtCO₂e |
| Residential | PELP/MEPP | 18.56 MtCO₂e | 32.79 MtCO₂e | 248.21 MtCO₂e |
| Industrial | PELP/MEPP | 17.43 MtCO₂e | 30.81 MtCO₂e | 233.18 MtCO₂e |
| Transport (EV 10% by 2040) | Various | N/A | N/A | 116.54 MtCO₂e |
| Power Sector Efficiency | Various | 4.34 MtCO₂e | 7.53 MtCO₂e | 54.03 MtCO₂e |
Transport VFELP/FEPR and EVCS avoidance targets remain “Pending data” — see Vehicle Fuel Economy Labeling Program (VFELP) and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC) for the data gap discussion.
Total EEC investment 2023–2050: PhP 41.66 billion (98% private sector, dominated by DE and ESCO spending). See Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC) for the full framework, Government Energy Management Program (GEMP) for government buildings, Philippine Energy Labeling Program (PELP) for appliance labeling, and Vehicle Fuel Economy Labeling Program (VFELP) for transport vehicles.