Clean Energy Scenarios (CES-1 and CES-2)
The Clean Energy Scenarios represent the Philippine Energy Plan 2023-2050’s aggressive transition pathways, adding offshore wind, nuclear energy, higher EV penetration, and stricter efficiency targets on top of the Reference Scenario baseline [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.10, 2023].
CES-1 vs. CES-2: The One Difference
The sole distinction between the two scenarios is offshore wind (OSW) capacity [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.10, 2023]:
- CES-1: 19 GW of offshore wind by 2050
- CES-2: 50 GW of offshore wind by 2050
All other assumptions are identical.
Shared CES Assumptions (vs. REF)
Additional supply [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.10, 2023]:
- RE share >50% of generation mix by 2050
- RE capacity targets under NREP
- 40-year technical life applied to coal plants (triggers earlier retirement)
- Nuclear: 1,200 MW by 2032; 2,400 MW by 2035; 4,800 MW by 2050
Additional demand [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.10, 2023]:
- Higher energy intensity reductions
- 50% EV penetration rate in road transport by 2040 (vs. 10% in REF)
- B5 biodiesel + E10 bioethanol blending by 2026
- 10% EEC savings on oil products and electricity by 2040-2050 (vs. 5% in REF)
Key Projections Compared
| Indicator | 2022 | REF 2050 | CES-1 2050 | CES-2 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPES | 61.6 MTOE | 140.5 MTOE | 127.3 MTOE | 122.3 MTOE |
| TFEC | 35.9 MTOE | 90.6 MTOE | 82.9 MTOE | — |
| Self-sufficiency | 49.4% | 38.9% | 52.9% | 54.8% |
| RE share of TPES | 32.6% | 35.5% | 41.1% | 42.6% |
| Nuclear share of TPES | 0% | 0% | 7.9% | — |
| Gross generation | 111.5 TWh | 453.8 TWh | 443.9 TWh | 444.9 TWh |
| Total installed capacity | 28.3 GW | 151.0 GW | 154.3 GW | 156.4 GW |
| RE installed capacity | 8.3 GW | 106.7 GW | 114.8 GW | — |
| BESS installed capacity | 0.16 GW | 3.8 GW | 22.0 GW | 24.7 GW |
| GHG vs. 2022 | — | +99% | — | -6.8% vs. CES-1 |
| NDC reduction | — | 54.5% | 63.2% | 66.4% |
Source: [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 1 and pp.14-15, 2023]
Cumulative GHG Avoidance (2023-2050)
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.19-20, 2023]:
- CES-1: 2,173.5 MtCO₂e avoided/reduced (31.6% of cumulative baseline)
- CES-2: 2,458.2 MtCO₂e avoided/reduced (35.8% of cumulative baseline)
Main contributors to CES-2’s advantage over CES-1:
- Coal generation reduction: 243.0 MtCO₂e
- Natural gas displacement: 39.8 MtCO₂e
CES-1 Power Generation Mix (Table 27)
| Source | REF 2040 | CES-1 2040 | REF 2050 | CES-1 2050 | Diff (pp) 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 71.2 TWh (24.9%) | 58.5 TWh (20.9%) | 63.8 TWh (14.1%) | 48.6 TWh (11.0%) | −3.1 pp |
| Natural Gas | 69.3 TWh (24.2%) | 41.6 TWh (14.9%) | 158.8 TWh (35.0%) | 67.9 TWh (15.3%) | −9.7 pp |
| Oil-based | 1.1 TWh (0.4%) | 0.9 TWh (0.3%) | 1.1 TWh (0.2%) | 0.9 TWh (0.2%) | −0.04 pp |
| RE total | 144.8 TWh (50.6%) | 158.9 TWh (56.9%) | 230.2 TWh (50.7%) | 287.9 TWh (64.9%) | +14.1 pp |
| — Geothermal | 18.9 TWh | 18.4 TWh | 21.3 TWh | 19.3 TWh | |
| — Hydro | 26.0 TWh | 25.2 TWh | 41.3 TWh | 32.8 TWh | |
| — Wind | 49.0 TWh | 56.3 TWh | 92.8 TWh | 144.5 TWh | |
| — Solar | 50.0 TWh | 56.5 TWh | 73.7 TWh | 89.0 TWh | |
| — Biomass | 1.0 TWh | 2.5 TWh | 1.2 TWh | 2.3 TWh | |
| Nuclear | — | 19.4 TWh (6.9%) | — | 38.6 TWh (8.7%) | +8.7 pp |
| Total | 286.3 TWh | 279.2 TWh | 453.8 TWh | 443.9 TWh |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 27, 2023]
CES-1 Installed Capacity Mix (Table 28)
| Fuel | 2022 | CES-1 2050 | Share 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 12,428 MW | 11,111 MW | 7.2% |
| Natural Gas | 3,732 MW | 19,721 MW | 12.8% |
| Oil-based | 3,834 MW | 3,854 MW | 2.5% |
| RE total | 8,265 MW | 114,833 MW | 74.4% |
| — Geothermal | 1,952 MW | 2,957 MW | 1.9% |
| — Hydro | 3,745 MW | 10,546 MW | 6.8% |
| — Onshore Wind | 427 MW | 26,387 MW | 17.1% |
| — Offshore Wind | 0 | 19,500 MW | 12.6% |
| — Solar | 1,530 MW | 54,694 MW | 35.4% |
| — Biomass | 611 MW | 749 MW | 0.5% |
| Nuclear | 0 | 4,800 MW | 3.1% |
| Total | 28,259 MW | 154,319 MW | 100% |
| BESS | 156 MW | 22,015 MW | — |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 28, 2023]
New capacity additions 2023–2050 under CES-1 total 129.7 GW (excluding decommissioned units). RE additions alone total 106.6 GW. CES-1 generates 3.4 GW more aggregate capacity than REF due to larger wind and nuclear additions offsetting reduced coal, gas, solar, and hydro [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.90, 2023].
CES-2 Power Generation Mix (Table 31)
Under CES-2 (50 GW OSW), wind’s share reaches 49.5% of total generation by 2050 — displacing coal and gas, and a portion of solar and onshore wind [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 31, 2023]:
| Source | CES-1 2050 | CES-2 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| Wind | 144.5 TWh (32.6%) | 220.4 TWh (49.5%) |
| Solar | 89.0 TWh (20.1%) | 47.7 TWh (10.7%) |
| Natural Gas | 67.9 TWh (15.3%) | 48.8 TWh (11.0%) |
| Coal | 48.6 TWh (11.0%) | 42.1 TWh (9.5%) |
| Nuclear | 38.6 TWh (8.7%) | 38.6 TWh (8.7%) |
| Hydro | 32.8 TWh (7.4%) | 27.2 TWh (6.1%) |
| Geothermal | 19.3 TWh (4.3%) | 17.2 TWh (3.9%) |
| RE total | 287.9 TWh (64.9%) | 314.6 TWh (70.7%) |
| Total | 443.9 TWh | 444.9 TWh |
CFPP Retirement Under CES
Coal-fired power plant retirement volumes [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.102, 2023]:
- CES-1: ~3,660 MW retired 2023-2050 → 6.1 MtCO₂e cumulative reduction
- CES-2: ~4,803 MW retired 2023-2050 → 8.1 MtCO₂e cumulative reduction
Wind Generation Under CES-2
Under CES-2, wind’s generation share jumps from 0.9% (2022) to 49.5% (2050), making it the dominant source — a 55-fold increase driven by the 50 GW OSW buildout [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.15, 2023].
Hypothetical E20 Scenario
A separate hypothetical sub-scenario under CES-2 models bioethanol blend increasing to 20% by 2030 (E20). This would yield an additional 49.1 MtCO₂e cumulative reduction over the planning horizon [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.15, 2023].
CES Demand-Side Reductions vs REF
Under CES, demand-side measures (EV penetration, EEC, higher biodiesel blend) reduce TFEC by 7.7 MTOE versus REF by 2050, and slow TFEC growth from 3.4%/yr (REF) to 3.0%/yr [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.84, 2023].
By sector, transport and industry account for 5.2 MTOE of the reduction; remaining sectors (services, households, agriculture) and non-energy use account for 2.5 MTOE. Transport savings come from higher EV penetration (50% vs 10% under REF) displacing gasoline and diesel, plus higher biodiesel blend [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.84, 2023].
By fuel, oil drops by 7.0 MTOE in 2050 vs REF. Biodiesel doubles to 731 kTOE vs 365 kTOE under REF, driven by the B5 blending mandate from 2026 [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.85, 2023].
CES Supply-Side: Power Fuel Input vs REF
The CES power fuel input mix in 2050 shifts dramatically from REF as OSW and nuclear displace gas:
| Fuel | REF 2040 | CES 2040 | REF 2050 | CES 2050 | Diff (pp) 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 18.07 MTOE (29.6%) | 14.76 MTOE (24.8%) | 16.19 MTOE (19.0%) | 12.28 MTOE (15.5%) | −3.5 pp |
| Natural gas | 10.83 MTOE (17.7%) | 6.50 MTOE (10.9%) | 24.82 MTOE (29.2%) | 10.61 MTOE (13.4%) | −15.8 pp |
| Renewable | 31.78 MTOE (52.1%) | 32.90 MTOE (55.3%) | 43.64 MTOE (51.4%) | 45.91 MTOE (58.0%) | +6.7 pp |
| Nuclear | 0 | 5.04 MTOE (8.5%) | 0 | 10.06 MTOE (12.7%) | +12.7 pp |
[PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, Table 25, 2023]
Nuclear enters the energy mix in 2032. In 2050, nuclear accounts for 12.7% of fuel input to power plants under CES, displacing 15.8 percentage points of natural gas demand versus REF. OSW-driven wind RE constitutes most of the additional renewable fuel input. See Nuclear Energy Program (Philippines) , LNG Imports as Transition Fuel , and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Energy Storage System Policy .
CES vs REF: Primary Energy Mix 2050
Under CES, fossil fuels’ combined share falls from 67.4% (2022) to 51.0% by 2050 — a 16.5 percentage-point reduction. Under REF, fossil fuels remain at approximately 64% in 2050. Total RE share rises to 41.1% (CES-1) vs 35.5% (REF) [PEP 2023-2050 Vol. I, p.86, 2023].
See GHG Emissions — Energy Sector (2022 Baseline) for full GHG scenario trajectories and Philippine Energy Transition Program (PETP) for the policy framework driving CES targets.